Wealthy first cousin of President Bashar al-Assad and great financier of the Syrian regime, would Rami Makhlouf have fallen out of favor? The very discreet businessman, who had managed, before the war, to control 60% of the country's economic activities according to experts, came out at the beginning of the month from his silence to reveal his disagreements with the authorities.

A sign of tensions within the Assad clan, Rami Makhlouf, 51, expressed himself in two videos posted on Facebook, in which he publicly challenged and implored the Syrian president over the arrears claimed by the state, all saying victim of intimidation by the security services.

A way for the country's sulphurous first fortune to witness Syrian public opinion in an unprecedented way, and in turn the foreign allies of the regime at the time of engaging in an arm wrestling which seems lost in advance against its cousin maternal, President Bashar al-Assad. 

"He feels the increasing pressure to marginalize him," Jihad Yazigi, director of the online economic site The Syria Report, told AFP. "He tried for a long time to resist, before launching his last card and exposing the family dissent" in the light of day, he said, adding: "it will cost him dearly".

A colossal fortune

Disputes escalated in the summer of 2019, when authorities took control of Rami Makhlouf's charity, before dissolving militias funded by him and involved in the Syrian conflict. "It is a pillar of the regime which paid with the money of its companies for the thugs who were at the origin of the first deaths in the demonstrations of 2011", underlines Gauthier Rybinski, specialist in international questions at France 24. In December, when Damascus froze the assets of several businessmen for tax evasion and illegal enrichment during the war, and according to several press reports, the childhood friend of the president and his wife were among those targeted.

Nicknamed "the king of Syria", when he was still untouchable, he experienced a meteoric rise when Bashar al-Assad took over from his father Hafez in 2000, becoming a pillar of the economic liberalization started. Taking advantage of the advantages linked to its membership of the Assad clan, its empire extended from the telecommunications sector to the retail trade, via hydrocarbons, electricity, banking and air transport.  

"He controlled entire swathes" of the economy, summed up Jihad Yazigi, recalling that "nobody could invest in certain areas without going through it".

"Thanks to front companies, he was one of the few capable of bypassing sanctions and bringing freight ships to Syria," said Fabrice Balanche at AFP, lecturer at Lyon-2 University, geographer. and specialist in Syria. "He continued to grow his business with the addition of agro-food products and hydrocarbons," he adds.

Rami Makhlouf's personal fortune is estimated at several billion dollars and had made him a figure hated by the opposition. "Symbol of the regime's corruption", he had become the direct target of the demonstrators who, at the beginning of the Syrian uprising, demanded a democratization of the regime and an end to the corruption of the elites. Under sanctions imposed by the US Treasury since 2008, he is also the subject of measures taken by the European Union against several Syrian dignitaries. Brussels accuses him in particular of "financing the regime" and thus allowing "repression".

A trip that could be expensive

If he is still the head of Syriatel, the country's largest mobile operator, his quarrel with the government could cost him dearly, while several Arab media claim that he is a refugee in the United Arab Emirates. "In this type of autocratic regime (...), no one is immune to an ukase," emphasizes Fabrice Balanche. Referring to the "recurrent, ineffective anti-corruption campaigns" in Syria, he recalled that the unacknowledged objective is often "to bring down heads that stick out".

In the first video addressed to Bashar al-Assad, which confirms the rumors of tensions between the two men, Rami Makhlouf affirms that the Treasury demands from him the 178.5 million dollars in arrears (162.2 million euros) and pleads for a rescheduling, arguing that it is vital for the survival of Syriatel.

"We are not fleeing tax and we are not playing with the country," said the businessman. He is appealing to the president's "instructions" to obtain "satisfactory rescheduling", "so that the business can continue to exist." And to add: "I paid exactly what I owed, but if necessary, I will pay again, but redistribute my money to the poor".

"I will respect your instructions (...) I respect your orders," he further implored, while complaining to the authorities and being always "charged and considered a culprit".

In the second video, he denounces "pressure" from the "security services" who arrested his employees, dozens, which confirms the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH). "How can we imagine that these services come to attack the companies of Rami Makhlouf, who was the greatest supporter of these services."

"A bulky cousin"

How to explain this grace and the current tensions? Has the Alawite billionaire gained too much weight on the Syrian scene? Had he become a threat to the president? The unpacking of tensions within the ruling clan is reminiscent of the rivalries in the 1980s between Hafez al-Assad, then president of Syria, and his brother Rifaat, who finally fell into disgrace, then exiled.

Having managed to regain control of the vast majority of Syrian territory, thanks to his Iranian and Russian allies, the current president, son of the late Hafez, seems less dependent on his cousin's dollars, and less inclined to share wealth. For Gauthier Rybinski, "everyone wants their share of the cake, the problem is that the cake almost no longer exists". Because Syria has seen its economy continue to deteriorate in recent months: the Syrian pound continues a historic fall against the dollar, while inflation exceeded 100% in 2019.

"The government took a lot of money from businessmen. It seems that Makhlouf (at one time) refused to pay", after having financed the war effort for a long time, said an Arab diplomat based in Beirut, quoted by AFP. "There are reports that he tried to get money out of the country."

Some media have also reported family rivalries involving the first lady, Asmaa al-Assad. "It's hard to know what's going on," said Jihad Yazigi. "It may be that Asmaa (...) seeks to guarantee his future and that of his son", by removing the Makhlouf family, he added. 

According to a diplomatic source familiar with the Syrian scene cited by Georges Malbrunot, in an article published by Le Figaro, Rami Makhlouf "also pays for the actions of one of his sons last week, who appeared on Instagram in front of his superb Red Ferrari in Dubai. At a time when the people are suffering, the intelligence services wanted to convince Assad that they had to react. And by hitting his cousin, Assad sends a signal to the Syrians that he does not hesitate to fight against corruption within his own family. "

"Bachar 'eliminates' a bulky cousin, just like his father 'eliminated' Rifaat", concludes Fabrice Balanche. With a nuance, however: "In the case of Rami, Bashar al-Assad will be content to cut off his wings."

With AFP 

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