- This Thursday, March 5 is already the "day of deregulation" for France, report environmental NGOs of the Affair of the century, the source of this new indicator.
- In other words, France has already emitted all of the greenhouse gases it could emit in one year if it met its carbon neutrality objective.
- This "Deregulation Day" then acts the climate delay of the French State, deplore these NGOs who announce that this indicator will now be calculated each year. History to see if progress is recorded.
Two months and five days. It will not have taken more for France to exhaust the quota of greenhouse gas emissions that it could emit in one year, if it respected its objective of carbon neutrality that it set for itself. reach before 2050.
The NGOs Notre Affaire à tous, Greenpeace, the Nicolas Hulot Foundation (FNH) and Oxfam France, at the origin of the Affair of the century - the name they give to this legal action against the French State for climate inaction -, have decided to mark the date with a white stone.
A nod to the day of overtaking
This is how this Thursday, March 5, became “the day of deregulation”, a new indicator that these NGOs want to create to point out the inadequacies of France's climate policies. A nod to the "Day of Overtaking", calculated each year by the Global Footprint Network. The American think-tank determines the date on which humanity has consumed all the natural resources that the planet can renew in one year. Clearly, this day of passing is the day when the ecological footprint of man - the Earth's surface used to fish, raise, cultivate, deforest, build and burn fossil fuels - exceeds the Earth's biocapacity. In other words, the surface of the planet necessary to cope with these pressures.
Last year, this day of the global overshoot fell on July 29, against November 5 in 1985. It falls even earlier for France, on May 14. It would take 2.7 Earth, if humanity lived like the French.
A maximum budget of 80 million tonnes of CO2e in 2050
The “day of deregulation”, it focuses only on our French greenhouse gas emissions. As a reminder, carbon neutrality is the point of equilibrium from which France will generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions on its national territory than it is able to withdraw from it, via its carbon sinks [forests , oceans, meadows, wetlands etc]. "Concretely, this means reducing France's annual emissions to 80 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent [MTCO2e]", the government is black and white in its Low Carbon National Strategy, to be seen as the French roadmap for the fight against climate change.
The NGOs of the Affair of the century therefore put into perspective this budget not to be exceeded in 2050 with an estimate of greenhouse gas emissions from France in 2020. "The calculations were entrusted to Carbone 4, a firm consultant specializing in energy transition, says Cécile Ostria, CEO of the Nicolas Hulot Foundation. They started with the 2017 emissions, the last year for which climate-corrected data are available. They were estimated that year at 465 million tonnes of CO2e. Carbone 4 then applied to this 2017 balance sheet the average annual rate of decline in French emissions over the 2011-2017 period, to extrapolate the emissions that will be those of France in 2020. "This gives 449 MTCO2e", we are told. at the FNH.
A projection exercise
Then there was nothing to do but divide this forecast by the number of days in the year, then look, at this rate, on which day of the year the milestone of 80 million tonnes of CO2 would be reached. So this Thursday, March 5.
The calculation has its share of uncertainties and its limits. "Only greenhouse gases emitted on French territory are taken into account," explains Cécile Ostria. This excludes those linked to maritime and air transport as well as so-called imported emissions [part of the goods we consume come from abroad where their production has generated GHG emissions]. As for the 80 MTCO2e budget not to be exceeded in order to achieve carbon neutrality, it was partly determined on the planned absorption capacities of carbon sinks in France in 2050. We can hope that by then, these capacities absorption improves beyond what is expected today ... We can also fear, conversely, that it will deteriorate.
We must therefore see this “Day of Deregulation” for what it is: “a projection exercise which shows all the work that remains to be done to achieve this carbon neutrality, recalls Jean-François Julliard, director general of Greenpeace France.
Thirty years to move the date back to December 31
So there are thirty years left to postpone this day of deregulation to December 31… in 2050. “We will get there at 25% by changes in individual behavior and at 75%, by changes in public policies of scope on the essential sectors that are transport, buildings, mobility, agriculture, says Cécile Duflot, CEO of Oxfam France. We are at a turning point where we can succeed, as well as not succeed. "
It is not so much the 2020 “day of deregulation” that is important. "That it falls so early in the year is not a surprise," said Stéphane Chatelin, director of negaWatt, an association specializing in energy transition issues. Many reports, starting with that of the High Climate Council, set up by the government, clearly show that we are currently very far from carbon neutrality. However, it will be very interesting to see the progress made or not made through this indicator. In other words, do we manage each year to roll back this "day of deregulation"? "
A way to put pressure on politicians?
The NGOs of the Affair of the Century are already announcing that they will calculate it every year from now on. A way to put pressure on public policies? "We have already given up on the idea of convincing the State to do more for the ecological transition, so that the challenge today is to force it to do so," continues Jean-François. Julliard. This is the aim of the Affair of the century, but also of citizen mobilization on the climate, which started over a year and a half ago [after the resignation of Nicolas Hulot from the post of minister of transition ecological ”.
On the “Affair of the Century” side, “we are at a standstill,” notes Marine Denis, lawyer and advocacy officer in Notre affair à tous. The State has still not responded to the additional brief we sent it in May 2019. ”In terms of citizen mobilization, new marches for the climate are planned for March 14.
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