In fact, sometimes passing through such crisis situations is even a little useful: purely from the point of view of adequacy in assessing one's own location in the space of the modern global economy. Which even nowadays looks like a thing completely non-linear, intricate and, like any work of modern abstract art, very difficult to predict (economic analysts so often fall into the sky with a finger that even weather forecasters, in my opinion, start slightly to envy). And sometimes only a crisis helps to find at least some rational thought in this dynamics of rapidly running prices and other stock quotes.
Let's try to clarify. At a meeting held at the government terminal of Vnukovo Airport over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the past week has been the worst for global markets since 2008. And this was not some kind of “thickening of colors for political purposes”, but merely a boring statement of the economic picture of the world: for example, in China, the business activity index fell below the minimum values of the 2008 global crisis. The situation in general, to put it mildly, is alarming, we quote the Russian leader: “World stock indices fell by more than 10%” (s). And it was against this background that Brent crude quotes fell to $ 50 per barrel by the end of the week (and then “broke through” this psychologically important mark), while at the beginning of this year, in January, they were at a much more comfortable level for us $ 70 per barrel.
And this is somehow rather naive not to take into account.
We agree with the president that “it is difficult to predict how long-term this trend will become,” there are several options for the development of events. And according to which option the situation in the world economy will develop, it would be somewhat irresponsible to argue peremptorily. Here we will agree with Putin once again: it’s just “in any case, it’s important to be prepared for a variety of scenarios” (c) - this is at least logical in the conditions of any volatility and stress.
And in the present it is simply impossible in a different way.
For us, something else is more important.
What five or seven years ago would have seemed insane and inappropriate - in the conditions of our then (yes, in general, and present) economy critically dependent on oil exports - a mockery of common sense, today is considered to be nothing more than quite calmly perceived by others statement of fact. We quote Putin again from the same meeting. “For the Russian budget, for our economy, the current level of oil prices is acceptable,” the president specifically noted.
And indeed it is.
And the point here is far not only in the so-called budget rule, which no one abusively scolded (for the sake of justice - in general, for what) and which is precisely designed to neutralize the effect of fluctuations in oil prices on the budget and economy of the country. Just recall that our country now lives in a "cut-off price" environment ($ 40 per barrel in 2017 prices with annual indexation of 2% since 2018), and these "gaping heights" of world oil prices, despite the acute phase crisis, yet, to put it mildly, have not reached. But also in the real “decoupling” of the influence of global oil prices on national consumer markets.
That is, roughly speaking, oil, of course, is falling, and the dollar and the euro are growing.
But the direct dependence of domestic markets on this volatility is not entirely absent - the markets somehow react to any "price rally" - it simply ceases to be critical in fact.
And here you shouldn’t be very clever, just compare the current state of affairs with the same situation in 2014-2015, when the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble against foreign currencies, caused by the rapid decline in world oil prices, led to a real poorly controlled increase in inflation, and also a sharp decline in consumer demand.
And, as a result, the economic recession and the actual, very tangible - we must pay tribute to - the decline in real incomes of the population. And here you can talk as much as you like about the “factor of sanctions” - to any person with a slightly sane profile education, immersed in the agenda, it is already clear what theoretically important role was played by any “sanctions” and which one was practical and crude dynamics of the global drop in oil prices. Here we must pay tribute to the actions of the Russian authorities, including the departed government of Dmitry Medvedev, which is usually customary to scold: one way or another, but the domestic economy is entering a much better prepared position in the current crisis.
Moreover, both on the internal and external contours: the sane tools here and here, perhaps, are not flexible and elegant enough, but they allow you to "solve problems" and "answer calls" where there are some more, let’s repeat, about five years back we were expecting a slurred moo and convulsive movements to eliminate the consequences. Now, the Russian economy has the opportunities and tools for these “consequences”, at least critical for the current life of the state and the population, if not avoided at all, then stopped at the initial stage. And this is really real and quite systemic success.
Now let's try to explain.
As for the "external circuit", then everything is quite simple.
The OPEC + Institute, created after the events of 2024–2015, has simply established itself in fact as an effective mechanism in ensuring stability in global energy markets. And by the way, Putin recalled that next week in Vienna there will be another meeting in this established format that is quite capable: the oil producing countries are not going to simply passively observe these processes at all, the possibilities to jointly “pull out” virtually any situation in the markets these players have. Especially considering the fact that players who are not OPEC + players, including the United States, are not interested in a critical drop in oil prices, to put it mildly: the cost of production there is still much higher than that of the basic OPEC + players, including not only Saudi Arabia, but also the Russian Federation. And a sharp and prolonged fall in prices below the key for the United States $ 50 per barrel of American production can not survive. And we are not saying this because of gloating in relation to the American “shale revolution”: there are simply tasks that need to be solved jointly, otherwise they may not be solved at all.
It will be all the more interesting to watch these “Vienna meetings”.
As for the domestic markets, then thank for the most part it is necessary just our, Lord forgive, “partners” with their sanctions. And arising as a result of counteraction to these very sanctions mechanisms.
As a result, it was possible not only to ensure the necessary level of domestic economic security (including food security, key in this sense), but also to a certain extent “untie” inflation from the dollar: no, the connection, of course, remains, but not so critical. And there is no need to invent anything - just look at the price dynamics in consumer markets: even the crisis “price rally of vegetables” that existed in the Far East was much more connected with gaps in logistics and speculative moods in that part of the business where “who cares, but whom mother is dear to. " And not with objective indicators, including the dynamics of oil prices.
In a word, with crises, more precisely, with the task of minimizing losses during them, we seem to have managed to cope more or less in recent years. As they learned the strict science of security, which is necessary not only in military affairs, but also in the economy.
Now it remains to learn how to ensure that our economy not only successfully "responds to challenges", but also demonstrates, in spite of any global cataclysms, sustainable economic growth. And it will be as difficult (perhaps even more difficult) as learning to deal with crises. But the fact that the usual external circumstances are created for us in this regard is comforting: as you know, we never work as well as in those periods when some regular scum tries to push us against the wall. Efficiency, fueled not only by cold pragmatic calculation, but also by distilled-pure proletarian hatred for another life injustice, is growing exponentially: features of a national character and mentality, where in this world would be without them.
Just do not relax - and everything will work out.
In successful periods of national history, we always, in general, lived just like that: the “cold” phase of a war can change the “hot” one any number, but this is still a war, and we — and our whole history mathematically proves it — precisely in wartime conditions, even “cold” and “economically hybrid”, have always been terribly effective.
Sorry, there's nothing to be done: just such a country.
No need to bully us.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.