Inexorably, the Syrian army continues its reconquest of the province of Idleb

Inexorably, since December, the troops of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, supported by the aviation of the Russian ally, have not stopped progressing in the province of Idleb (north-west). Despite the truce that remained in the end unfulfilled, they are gradually nibbling on this portion of the territory which has been outside of Damascus control since 2012, and dominated by the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS) - the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.

The next objective of Damascus is the locality of Saraqeb, located in the east of the province, and which is almost entirely deserted following a violent campaign of bombardments. Highly strategic, Saraqeb is located at the junction of two major highways, including the M5 motorway, connecting Damascus to Aleppo, a major northern metropolis, which the regime seeks to secure, and another key motorway, the M4, connecting Aleppo to the coastal town of Lattaquié, located in the stronghold of the Assad family.

Government troops were less than five kilometers south of the city on Saturday, February 1, after falling back due to night fighting with rebels, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH).

"Smother Idleb"

"The Syrian regime is advancing ants in this province, with a strategy which is to smother Idleb from the south, says Wassim Nasr, journalist for France 24 and specialist in jihadist movements. This is not a phase d 'encirclement, since the enclave is totally open to Turkey ".

In total, since January 24, the Syrian army has taken over 30 localities in southern Idleb, according to the OSDH. On January 29, the regime's forces notably took over Maaret al-Noomane, the second largest city in this province over which they now control more than 40% of the area.

"The capture of Maaret al-Noomane is of major importance for the Syrian regime, given the geographic location of this city in relation to the M5 motorway, which is also strategic, stresses Wassim Nasr. Besides being one economic lungs of the province of Idleb, it also has a very important symbolic value because it was one of the first cities to rise up against the Syrian regime, but also one of the few to stand up to the HTS ".

In humanitarian terms, since the beginning of December, more than 260 civilians have died in the bombings in the region, according to the OSDH, while 388,000 people have been displaced by the violence, according to the UN, and the majority fled to the northwest of the country.

The province, which is also home to other jihadist groups and various rebel factions, has nearly three million inhabitants, half of whom are displaced people who, with Damascus' agreement, came from other former insurgent strongholds. "The situation in north-western Syria is now untenable for civilians," said Lorenzo Redalié of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on Friday.

A double Turkish speech?

For their part, the insurgents now only control the vast northern sector of the province, directly adjacent to the border with neighboring Turkey. The latter, which supports and finances certain rebel groups, takes a dim view of the regime’s reconquest campaign while Turkish military observation posts are now in areas controlled by Damascus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday denounced the "cruelty" of the Syrian regime towards its people, threatening to use "military force" again in Syria.

"The goal of Damascus is ultimately to regain control of the province, little by little, and despite official speeches and threats, everything seems to be done on good terms between Russians, Iranians, Turks and Syrians," said Wassim Nasr.

He added: "We also note that the Turkish observation points, which have been found for several months in areas taken over by the Syrian army, are still in place, this is an indicator of this good intelligence. We can also note that the Turkish army has blocked all access from the interior of the province to Saraqeb. "

Since 24h #Turkey has closed the roads leading to #Saraqib on the # M5. Which visually aims to stop the # Syria-nne army, but this hinders / contains #HTS and marks a new line of demarcation. Several Turkish observation posts have been in the loyalist zone for months pic.twitter.com/LcD35jjS9y

Besides the jihadists of al-Qaeda, HTS is "the only free electron" in the region, and "the common objective of the powers involved in the Syrian conflict is to contain it," recalls Wassim Nasr.

"We also see pro-Turkish factions financed by Ankara back in the enclave of Idleb, under the pretext of defending it against the advance of the regime. In reality, this will allow the Turks to weigh in the equation within the enclave in the face of the all-powerful HTS, avoiding a direct conflict with Damascus, "he concluded.

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