For all the good and against all the bad

Kiev’s initiative to expand the OSCE’s mission will, of course, meet with support from Moscow, although perhaps not quite as expected. The Russian authorities traditionally support the activities of the staff of this organization in the conflict zone, because, as stated in the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the mission "plays a stabilizing role in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, provides important assistance to Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk in the implementation of the Minsk agreements and is designed to help establish a national agreement on throughout Ukraine. ”

Actually, back in 2015, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed increasing the number of mission employees by recruiting several dozen Russian specialists. This old idea can well be actualized, although the Ukrainian leadership is unlikely to react to this with enthusiasm. But even if the enlargement of the composition does not occur according to this scheme (Kiev will reject it as expected), the expanded composition of the mission will act much more efficiently.

So, what did Vladimir Zelensky offer at a meeting with OSCE Chairman-in-Office Edy Rama, and most importantly - for what? The positions were agreed upon at the meeting of the "Norman Four" in Paris on December 9. The mission should move to a round-the-clock format, the number of observers should increase mirrored on both sides of the front, employees need to provide access to areas where the separation of forces and assets did not occur. The OSCE Chairman agreed that the fulfillment of all these conditions will help to form a more reliable and large-scale picture of what is happening on the line of contact.

In general, we are talking about extremely useful things, but we must keep in mind that, most likely, the ruling team uses something like substitution therapy in anticipation of the next meeting in the Norman format. The fact is that the Ukrainian authorities are not able to move at least a half step towards the implementation of the political points of the package of measures to implement the Minsk agreements. Too great internal opposition. For nationalists, the special status of Donbass and its constitutional fixation, amnesty, the withdrawal of forces and assets along the entire front line, direct negotiations with representatives of the DPR and LPR on all these issues are like a red rag for a bull. They consider all these measures unacceptable.

The right-wing camp is still the most active political force, ready to seriously clash with the authorities if they begin to pursue a "capitulary line."

So opponents of the current Ukrainian regime call attempts to achieve the so-called comprehensive political settlement. And in the president’s environment, there are a lot of proteges of the US Democratic Party and Soros, who are in solidarity with the radicals on these issues.

Since an agreement was reached in Paris on the new role of the OSCE mission, nothing prevents Kiev from acting as the main initiator of the new scheme of its work. This can be presented at the next Norman meeting as the main achievement of Zelensky. The Ukrainian president tried to crank up a similar feint by introducing into the Verkhovna Rada a draft law on decentralization (however, it has already been recalled). There was not a word about the corresponding amendments to the Constitution after the adoption of the law on the special status of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as required by the Minsk agreements, however, deputies were given the right to determine the administrative status of the regions themselves. This allowed us to get off with a half-measure: to quietly push through a special status without touching the Constitution.

Of course, the OSCE mission and its monitoring activities are a very significant element in reducing tension in the conflict zone. And its strengthening is undoubtedly a highly favorable factor. But I do not think that an attempt to pass this already agreed decision on for the decisive victory of Zelensky’s team in the struggle for peace in the Donbass will be successful. No, of course, everyone nods with satisfaction, smiles, and pats the Ukrainian representative on the shoulder at the next Norman meeting, where the foreign ministers of the four states will gather. But questions regarding political points will not go anywhere. Only to answer them Vadim Priestayko, if he retains his post by April, there will be nothing.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.