The end of 2019 was marked by another wave of pessimistic statements by Russian jingoists (almost all of them consider themselves exclusively patriots) that Russia “this time absolutely merges the Donbass”, “the DPR and LPR want to put them back into Ukraine "," Moscow caved in under pressure from the West and sanctions, "" the gas contract with Kiev is a betrayal of the Russian world. " The reason for these panic attacks, of course, was the meeting in the Norman format, which took place in the first half of December.
However, in my opinion, the main drawback of hurray alarmists is that they read only a superficial layer of information coming to them from the news, and in every way refuse to analyze the complex of facts instead of a single headline. Indeed, if we consider the events, let’s say, documented (and this is fundamentally) in the Donbass last year, the forecasts about the future fate of the young republics look more than encouraging.
I am convinced that the course taken by Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014 to complete separation from Ukraine will not just be continued - in 2020, in my opinion, processes to strengthen the sovereignty (independence from Kiev) of the Donbass republics and integration of their economies into an economy of friendly Russia. The same applies to socio-cultural processes, which during the five years of the war are already quite tightly intertwined.
In order not to be unfounded, I will cite several factors that allow us to draw such conclusions. Well, firstly, the residents of the DPR and LPR have finally begun to receive Russian passports. Yes, at certain stages the procedure may be too bureaucratic, and now you can’t boast of some stunning figures. But at the same time, you need to understand that obtaining citizenship is, in principle, not the easiest legal procedure, and most importantly, that the process has started and now nothing and no one (again, nothing and no one!) Will stop him.
Secondly, it is important to note that on the eve of the Norman meeting, the People’s Council of the DPR adopted an important and, again, fundamental decision for those at the front. Namely, a law was adopted on the state border of the republic, according to which it coincides with the border of the entire former Donetsk region.
For official Kiev, and President Zelensky in particular, in my opinion, this is a check and mate on the Donbass issue.
Yes, the republics now, of course, will not organize a large-scale offensive: this contradicts the Minsk protocols, to which the DPR and LPR signed and, unlike Ukraine, follow their international obligations meticulously and consistently. However, if Kiev goes to the final and irrevocable disruption of Minsk-2 (and there are prerequisites for this), Donetsk can rightfully use the right to return the territories that belong to it in accordance with its own Constitution and the law on the state border.
Moreover, in the final of 2019, the DPR authorities promised to finally regulate the status of military personnel - fighters of the People’s Police. The question was raised on the direct line of the head of the republic, and then more clearly posed by the battalion commander of the legendary Sparta division Vladimir Zhoga at the awarding of commanders. In response, the military promised in the shortest possible time to prepare lists of units and military personnel who would be provided with special status of combatants, giving the military, in addition to legal guarantees, certain social benefits. All relevant procedures are planned to be completed in the next two to three months.
For those who believe that all these are trifles, I will explain. If you consider a number of these legislative initiatives in the complex (oh, yes, I forgot to mention that the People’s Council of the DPR was tasked with preparing a law on the status of the Russian language as the only state language), then it’s easy to understand that the interaction with the Ukrainian authorities will never unfold Kiev conditions. In fact, in order to begin dialogue with the republics, the new Ukrainian authorities need to come to terms with their independence and, accordingly, with the legal norms with which they filled their sovereignty.
In this regard, it would be more correct to say that in the coming year not “Russia will merge the Donbass”, but “Donbass will finally merge Ukraine”. At least, that Ukraine that we see today: with nationalists who have gone around and have little control over the president and, in fact, the comedian president himself, who is unable to fulfill his full obligations.
Regarding the possibility of an adequate dialogue, in fact, with Zelensky himself - there are also few prospects. In addition to the fact that the Russian presidential aide, Vladislav Surkov, said that he did not see a serious difference between Poroshenko and Zelensky, the head of the DPR voiced statistics on a straight line, according to which the shelling of the republic during his time as a comedian president was in excess of the figures for the last months of the “chocolate” the king. " The hint, in general, is clear. Donbass is not going to any Ukraine and in 2020 will continue to work on strengthening its own sovereignty and relations with Russia.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.