"Somewhere" strike back-what we saw from the British general election-December 27 17:45

The result of the British general election is a counterattack of "Somewhere."
This analysis of the ruling and conservative victory of the ruling and conservative party, which promises to leave the EU, is drawing attention in Europe. I'm David Goodhart, the founder of the British magazine Prospect. His book, The Road to Somewhere, became a bestseller in the UK. We asked Goodheart where Britain and the world are heading.
(Jun Takao, Director General, European Directorate General)

Somewhere vs Anywhere

2019 was the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War. In the world, the trade war between the United States and China, the rise of China and Russia, and the confrontation between Europe and the United States at NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) are highlighted.

At the same time, the country's first principle, which originated in the United States, has spread to Europe and has created a sensation of populism.

The year ended with the general election in Britain. The British have given a sign of leaving the EU.

Goodheart interprets that choice in the conflict between Somewhere and Anywhere.

Somewhere Strikes Back

Goodheart understands that Somewhere, a “counterattack” of workers who have never left a particular area, led to a British referendum that surprised the world three years ago.

People at this level, who had not spoken before in the society, turned away from the EU as a result of rebelling against wanting to sacrifice further globalization. Says.

Goodheart: "The people of" Somewhere, "as I define, have been frustrated that their dissatisfaction has been ignored. The existing political parties have become increasingly financial and cultural. They were increasingly dissatisfied with the lack of politicians who were liberal and spoken for themselves, and they who had not voted before hit NO in today's society. The victory of the secessionist victory. ''

The Conservative Party's victory is clear

In the United Kingdom, those who voted for either of the two major parties, the "Conservative Party" or the "Labor Party", once accounted for 60-70% of the total.

The Conservative Party is based on urban middle class. Meanwhile, the Labor Party has been gaining support from local workers.

Now, however, the number of those with a clear supporting party has fallen to 15-20%. Most people vote for close candidates on social issues such as immigration and security.

In this general election, where the decision to leave the EU was the biggest issue, the Labor Party remained vague about the Conservative Party, which promised to leave.

As a result, Goodheart sees the Conservatives succeeding in capturing the majority Somewhere vote.

Goodheart said: "The conservative party's victory was due to the violence of the banner of the secessionist party. Many Conservatives were uncomfortable with secession. However, the majority said that they should accept the results of the referendum and respect the democratic process: by ignoring the democratic process of referendum, rather than the financial damage of withdrawal. I thought the political damage was more serious for Britain. ''

Why choose EU withdrawal?

However, the choice of British who support the EU withdrawal is still difficult for us Japanese to understand. When asked, Goodheart replied:

Goodheart: "There is a rising belief that the economy, not money, should protect the way of life and national identity. Immigration will be controversial in Japan as well as in Europe. Some people think that the economics will be a plus if it comes, but the identity of Japanese society will be lost, as will the UK: Somewhere who complain that they are not benefiting from globalization They feel that national identity and democracy themselves have also been weakened, and the symbol of this change is the EU. "

EU integration with brakes

With the UK taking a major step towards withdrawal, Goodhart points out that the EU, which has been pushing for consolidation, will face a crisis in the medium to long term.

Goodheart: "The conservative party's victory will put prime minister Johnson into full-scale trade negotiations after the EU leaves the country. Faced with a difficult phase: if the UK survives the crisis, it will bolster the EU secession and drag on integration. "

"As a result, the EU will stratify into a core group centered on Germany and France, a second group that will leave the euro area, and a third group that will be further away. The EU will become a looser coalition I think it will change. "

The world in 2020 will be rethinking globalization

Goodheart predicts that the conflict between Somewhere and Anywhere is not limited to the UK, but will spread to the world from next year.

His book, The Road to Somewhere, was also translated into French in November and is gaining new attention.

Goodheart: "We have lived in the centrifugal force of globalization for the last 30 years, which has broken down everything into individualism, which has brought great wealth while destabilizing society. Has become

Goodheart: “And now the opposite force has begun to work. The centripetal force to return to the nation state, a vector that places greater emphasis on security and identity. This is a new cycle that will last 30 to 40 years, The review of globalization will progress in each country.

And politicians who have represented Anywhere (people who can live anywhere) are required to listen to Somewhere (people who live somewhere) and incorporate their policies. We hope that Somewhere will not replace Anywhere, but seek a desirable balance between the two. ''

In 2020, the world will be a "waiting year" to watch the United States presidential election with a solid eye. Despite the outcome, Goodheart believes that the path of the United States from globalization to homelandism will not change.

In Europe and in the world, will we move from an outward era led by Anywhere (people who can live everywhere) to an introverted era by somewhere (people who live in a certain place).

Now that the world has reached a major turning point 30 years after the end of the Cold War, it is necessary to sharpen the nerves of the changes in the world after the "awaiting one year" and keep an eye on them. I am deepening that feeling.

Jun Takao, Director General, European Affairs Bureau