The entire royal army cannot humpty dumpty - this nursery rhyme fully reflects the situation in Libya. The fall of the Humpty Dumpty - NATO intervention - destroyed the Libyan state, and since then nobody has been able to restore order in Libya. Dozens of police, each with its own leadership and its plans, are now uniting, then again feuding.

In April 2019, General Khalifa Haftar (commander of the Libyan National Army with a base in the east, in Benghazi) decided to take the capital of Tripoli (where the so-called government of national accord - the PNS - headed by Prime Minister Faiz Saraj sits) and rally Libya under his command. But his combined forces (dozens of police and mercenaries) could not take Tripoli and have since been standing in the suburbs of the capital.

Haftar claims that the PNS is practically captured by Tripolitan militants and that he does not fight the PNS, but is trying to save and release him. PNS calls him the new Gaddafi and calls for the defense of the capital.

A few days ago, Haftar said that now he will be able to win, but this has not yet succeeded. The defenders of Tripoli, with whom I spoke today, believe that until April 2020, before the festival of Ramadan, they will hold out, and there - Allah is great! But in the Haftar camp, they believe that the city will fall from hour to hour.

All this time, various external forces intervened in the civil war and delivered weapons to belligerents under the guise, despite the UN embargo. But now, Turkish President Erdogan has decided to intervene openly. He offered Saraj, the prime minister of the PNS, military assistance, including the transfer of Turkish paratroopers. Arms, baethers and drones from Turkey are heading for Libya, reinforcing the PNS. Erdogan concluded an agreement with Saraj on the joint development of the sea shelf from Libya to Turkey, so that the Greek islands, Cyprus, and Israeli towers in the Mediterranean Sea fell into this zone. Greece, Israel and Cyprus were outraged. Europeans are unhappy, but do not want to quarrel with Erdogan, who can send millions of refugees to Europe at any time.

"Guys! Let's live in peace! ”- with such a traditional appeal, Russia, like the cat Leopold, addresses the warring parties.

As in Syria, Russia prefers to bring the parties to agreement and switches to the language of force only if one of the parties does not understand the hints. Moreover, the flourishing diversity of the Libyan conflict does not come down to two sides - there are dozens of them, as, incidentally, was in Syria. But the Libyans are not inclined to interact: only the iron hand of Muammar Gaddafi held them together, and after his death, each tribe fights for itself.

The United States was initially neutral in Libyan disputes. Last April, President Trump called up with Haftar and seemed to bless him. But now, when rumors of Russian interests in the region reached Washington, the US Congress demands "not to give Libya to Putin." The Americans are now ready to introduce Haftar as a Russian protege, although the general lived in the USA for a long time and was friends with the special services there. They already say that the PNS is the legitimate government of Libya, although its legitimacy is very arbitrary. France prefers Haftar, but fears actively intervening. And Turkey’s intervention, if implemented, could affect the outcome of the Battle of Tripoli.

But in this case, the less popular Saraj will not be able to unite Libya. For Haftar, Egypt can speak, which borders Libya. Mercenaries from Chad and Sudan can be recruited as much as you want. The planned conference in Berlin is unlikely to bring results unless a convincing military victory is achieved. And the agreement on the sea shelf will remain an empty piece of paper on Erdogan’s table.

Under these conditions, the position of Russia seems to be the most balanced: to bring the parties to agreement, taking into account the real balance of power. Russia has experience with an agreement with Turkey. A few days ago, Erdogan called Putin, and the presidents discussed the Libyan conflict. There is a chance that they will expand their agreements on Syria and Libya and will be able to avoid unnecessary victims.

Unlike Syria, in Libya there are no clearly pro-Russian forces and politicians. For this reason, Russia did not intervene in the events of 2011. But since then a lot of time has passed, Russia is returning to the Middle East and Africa. And she, undoubtedly, will be able to help the people of Libya collect Humpty Dumpty.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.