Every morning, Etienne Lefebvre decrypts one of the most important economic news of the day.

The pound sterling unscrewed on Monday at the London Stock Exchange. The City fears more and more a Brexit without agreement.

The British motto is a little the thermometer of the economic climate. And there, the temperature drops because investors begin to integrate the prospect of a brutal exit of the European Union. Until then, they did not believe it. But the team set up by Boris Johnson, and his speeches all go in the same direction. Brexit will happen no matter what happens on October 31st. It seems like three years back, during the referendum campaign. The then mayor of London praised the benefits of Brexit without giving the instructions. It was a mirage, but that does not stop it from starting again, assuring that one must seize, I quote, "the enormous economic opportunity of an exit from the European Union".

Why is it a mirage? We have not seen the economy crumble since the referendum?

This is true, but growth is slowing down, and investment is falling, while Brexit has not even taken place. Then, we must look closely at the economic project of Boris Johnson. He says that the UK "will be able to do things that it has not been allowed to do for decades." But which ones? The "renaissance" of nuclear power? It is achievable in the European Union. The stimulus plan in infrastructure? The UK is free to do it, it is not in the euro, is not subject to its fiscal rules. Boris Johnson wants to make his country a tax haven at the entrance of Europe? But there is no harmonization, unfortunately, and some Member States are already doing the so-called fiscal race. So it all looks like a smoke screen.

There remains the trade agreements that could be concluded freely in the United Kingdom?

So yes, for that, you have to get out of the single market. But again, it's a mirage. Who can imagine that an isolated country, the United Kingdom, can obtain more from its partners than the European Union, the world's largest economic market? Especially as Europe, today, negotiates agreements that go far beyond customs duties, to impose its regulatory, social, environmental standards. Boris Johnson wants to make Donald Trump, without the economic and financial strike force of the United States, and the dollar. It seems doomed to failure, but beware, the British Prime Minister has a high quality, it is a pragmatic. He is able to change foot if necessary. Let's not forget that at first he was opposed to Brexit.