The Taliban People’s Liberation Movement * seems to be finally entering a legal political field. In any case, for the first time official Kabul announced a meeting of the authorities with representatives of the Taliban. According to the Minister of Peace Abdul Salam Rahimi, the first talks will take place in one of the European capitals - apparently, in Germany. At the same time, it is not worth waiting for any serious progress: the Taliban insist on the immediate withdrawal of the occupying forces.
So far, the conclusion exists only in the form of intent, but no specific dates have been indicated: the US and NATO contingent continues to be present in the republic. There is an assumption that he will remain there, since the current government in Kabul without him will last a few days - just as long as it is necessary to bring light Pakistani jeeps from Quetta, the capital of the old Taliban. The second “but” is drug traffic, which goes not without American control: with the return of the Taliban, the poppy fields will begin to burn again.
To think that idiots are sitting in Quetta and do not understand this, well, at least silly. In turn, the Americans took a very convenient position: the failure of negotiations between the Taliban and Kabul can be attributed to the adversity of the Taliban. “They don’t want to negotiate,” they say in Washington. No, they want negotiations, but they understand that any negotiations are meaningless until the last American soldier leaves Afghanistan. Too many promises they heard.
Many years have passed since Bush deceived Moscow in order to gain a foothold in Afghanistan: presidents have changed, and programmatic statements about the withdrawal of foreign troops have been heard more than once. Just recently, Donald Trump spoke about this in his manner, stressing: “If I wanted to win the war, Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth, it would disappear.”
Then the phrase “a terrible end is better than horror without end” comes to mind: a coalition has been killing Afghans for more than 15 years. And all these 15 years, the Taliban are gaining points from the common population, which at one time treated it differently.
The “Taliban” during this time has come a long way of evolution - from the theocratic organization to the real popular partisan movement, based on the Pashtun majority. In fact, today the Taliban are fighting on three fronts at once: against the occupying forces, the puppet government in Kabul and the “Islamic state” **, which is gaining popularity in Central Asia.
Another late Mullah Omar issued a fatwa in which he urged not to let the black flag of ISIS rise over Afghanistan. And this flag, despite the support of Western foreign intelligence services, did not rise.
The simple thesis “there is no Afghanistan without the Taliban” is well understood in our Foreign Ministry. At the highest level, a full-format meeting was organized with the participation of representatives of the Taliban. Zamir Kabulov, director of the Second Asia Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, said: “The interests of the Taliban and without stimulation objectively coincide with ours. I have already spoken about the communication channels with the Taliban for sharing information. I note that we are for a political settlement. We would like the government of Afghanistan and its opponents, even if armed, to negotiate without blood and make acceptable compromises. ”
This is understood in Quetta. As for coercion by the US of the Taliban to negotiate with Kabul without withdrawing the occupying forces, this only angers the Taliban. They will have to be radicalized in order not to lose influence in the region and not be known as the Compromisers. Such an option is twisting the arms of a military shura, forcing him to act rather than seek a compromise.
Without plans to invade the former Central Asian republics of the USSR, as mullah Omar repeatedly said, the Taliban remains, perhaps, the only group that does not directly pose a threat to the national security of Russia, unlike the Islamic State. For young fighters, there is only one image of the enemy - this is a NATO soldier. It turns out a vicious circle: returning to the legal field is possible if the occupier voluntarily leaves Afghanistan.
In this complex configuration, the only possible solution may be the resumption of negotiations in Moscow under the auspices of the Foreign Ministry. The last meeting showed that representatives of the Taliban are willing to willingly discuss ways out of the multi-year crisis. And if the upcoming talks with Kabul fail (and they fail), then our Foreign Ministry could boldly start preparing serious talks in Moscow with the road map on legalizing the political wing of the Taliban in the Kabul executive and legislative branches.
There is no doubt that in the very first elections with the participation of the Taliban, a white banner will be raised over Kabul.
* “Taliban” - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.
** “Islamic State” (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.