It would seem that after the victory of Zelensky and his political party in the parliamentary elections that triumphed in the presidential election, Ukraine is on the verge of cardinal transformations. "The servant of the people" receives in parliament about 125 seats for deputies who have passed both on party lists and in majority districts. However, in order to get a constitutional majority, it is necessary to have 226 votes, which can be gained by forming the ruling coalition plus having bought or zakoshmariv, as it traditionally happens in Ukraine, the majority voters who went to the polls under other party banners.
Zelensky was already quite definitely in favor of a coalition with the party of the frontman of the Okean Elzy group, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, and even suggested that he should think about nominating his candidate for the post of prime minister. It looks, frankly, quite comical: as if the top positions in the country were shared by a pair of second-rate actors in a theatrical dressing room. However, after the distribution and occupation of posts in the very structure of the state administrative apparatus, a huge gap continues to gape.
The problem is that experienced professional officials who fueled Ukraine with all the post-Soviet rulers staged Zelensky obstruction, believing that his political age would be short-lived, and his influence on the course of events was scanty. The team recruited by the new Ukrainian leader, both in the party ranks and in the ranks of managers, are random people who have neither professional political and bureaucratic experience, nor any coherent or consistent ideological bias.
That is why in the Parliament the deputies from the party “Servant of the people” will most likely play the role of an amorphous, not united by common ideas and views, and therefore not too disciplined bog located between the two polar shores - relatively pro-Russian party “Opposition platform - For life ”And moderate and unlimited nationalists, represented by the“ Fatherland ”of Yulia Tymoshenko and the“ European Solidarity ”by Petro Poroshenko.
A coalition with Tymoshenko for Zelensky can be disastrous, since Yulia Vladimirovna, with her ambitions, will demand the position of prime minister. After receiving it, she will be able to purchase for her faction of majoritarian people at the state expense and start fulfilling her blue dream of turning Ukraine into a chancellor republic, where she will eventually receive a life-long chancellor post.
It seems that the head of the Ukrainian state itself (or those behind it) is well aware of all this. Therefore, Zelensky has already managed to publicly speak out against the coalition with Batkivshchyna.
He will not dare to join the coalition with the “Opposition Platform” for two reasons.
Firstly, it will immediately provoke a new, much more bloody than in 2014, “Maidan” against the “Pro-Russian revenge”. No longer students and representatives of the urban intelligentsia will take to the streets, but irreconcilable radicals who have experience of participating in hostilities and weapons that have been removed from the front. These people will not stop before applying any violence. To join with them in the conflict for the new government, not controlling the police Arsen Avakov, death like.
And secondly, Zelensky, with all the vagueness and randomness of his ideological preferences, is himself a completely Maidan politician who was a supporter of European integration and the strengthening of ties with Washington and Brussels. There is no reason to speak of any benevolent attitude towards Russia in his case. That is why for him the union with Vakarchuk is organic, whose views are the light versions of the nationalist doctrine of Petro Poroshenko.
This is one reason why we should not expect a change in political course.
The other is that if even Zelensky had wanted to do it, he would hardly have succeeded. The powers of the president in Ukraine are almost representative: the only sphere in which the head of state has its hands free is war and foreign policy. As for all without exception of internal affairs, they are controlled by the Verkhovna Rada. And the current parliament makes it Tyanitolkaya. Most of the deputies simply have no idea how and what to vote for, and as the positions of the presidential team weaken (and this is inevitable with the onset of cold weather and new utility bills that citizens will receive), majoritarian people and members of the faction Zelensky himself will be mowed down towards the opposition.
Thus, the processes will develop in a completely predictable manner. In the absence of reforms, the government will begin to slip out of the hands of the presidential team. Predatory and much more experienced opponents of Zelensky are just waiting for this moment to devour a weakening and accidental president. The collapse of the ruling coalition, which also seems inevitable, will mean the need for extraordinary parliamentary elections, in which a disappointed voter will give a ride to the “Servant of the People” that has not justified the trust - and there is not far to extraordinary presidential elections. With the fake party that won the elections, the country is entering a new political and economic crisis.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.