When journalists and talking heads today discuss the alleged political events of 2019 in Washington, it is often the case that Donald Trump is likely to be impeached.

On the eve of Christmas, the 45th President of the United States, it would seem, he himself added confidence to those who predicted his imminent expulsion from the White House. The controversy over the financing of the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico led to a partial “government closure”. Then came the news of Trump's decision to withdraw the US military from Syria, which caused an outburst of indignation in the Washington establishment.

Because of disagreements with the head of state, Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned, and after him - the US special representative in the coalition against LIH * Brett McGurk. And although the majority of American media in 2017 claimed that Mattis, nicknamed “Crazy Dog”, was “not sufficiently qualified” to lead the military, today the same media speak of his passing as “the greatest loss” for America.

On top of that, the major stock market indices rushed down. Financial analysts called December 2018 the “worst December since the Great Depression” for the S & P 500 index, which is considered to be the main indicator of the state of the stock market.

All this allowed the White House host detractors to conclude (though not for the first time!) That the Christmas Eve of 2018 was the “beginning of the end of the Donald Trump presidency”. But if we weed out the media noise and focus on the facts, we will see a very different picture.

"Government closure" has happened in US history many times. In 2018, the US president was due to the principle: the Senate refused to allocate funds for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

The leader of the democratic minority in the upper house of Congress, Chuck Schumer, directly stated from the Senate rostrum: “If you, Mr. President, want to“ open the government, ”give up the wall!” succumbed and decided to fight.

All the talk about the "indescribable suffering of ordinary Americans" because of the stubbornness of the head of state sounds unconvincing. This time only a quarter of all federal agencies came under the “closure”. Bill Clinton at one time completely "closed the government" because of disagreements with Congress on 21 days. The crisis ended on January 6, 1996, and in the autumn of the same year, the president triumphantly elected his second term.

The withdrawal of troops from Syria (and later from Afghanistan) was also the election promise of the 45th US President. The fact that the Minister of Defense dispersed with him in his views and resigned is also not unusual. Barack Obama changed the four heads of the Pentagon. Two of them - due to serious political differences.

The fact that Trump sharpened the game at the end of the year, when no one had anticipated any surprises, is quite consistent with the style of Greater Donald. According to the apt expression of the first head of his campaign headquarters, Cory Lewandowski, "Trump remains Trump."

The pre-Christmas steps of the White House’s host expectedly provoked a mixed reaction in his own party. Perseverance in upholding the project of the boundary wall was evaluated mostly positively. But the withdrawal of troops from Syria by a significant part of the Republican congressmen was greeted with hostility.

However, for Trump, this reaction is a huge success. In 2016–2017, most party leaders considered the call “Let's Build a Wall!” Just a populist slogan, which is not at all necessary to implement. Then, many party members of the president openly criticized the "immoral" idea of ​​physically isolating themselves from their southern neighbor.

The most characteristic in this regard is the behavior of Senator Lindsay Graham. In 2017, he was one of Trump's main internal opponents. Now he supports the owner of the White House in many of his endeavors, including the construction of the wall. In his Twitter, Graham wrote: “We will not back down from the wall. We will build a wall. ” At the same time, he said that he was shocked by the decision of the president to withdraw the military contingent from Syria.

Undoubtedly, Trump risks again to cause discontent of his party, which he just managed to “tame”. But this risk is quite justified. The prize in this game is the final transformation of the Republican Party into the Trump party, including on foreign policy issues.

The likelihood of impeachment of the president, which is now being talked about so much in the United States, depends not on what Special Prosecutor Muller “digs up”, but on the political plans of congressmen-democrats. Even if Trump has nothing to remove from power, the House of Representatives, controlled by the Democratic Party on January 3, can begin the impeachment procedure.

The problem for the opposition is that the Senate will not condemn the head of state for two thirds of the vote. For those who have started an impeachment, this may haunt the loss of congressional space at the next re-election. But this is unlikely to affect the rating of the White House host. Already mentioned Bill Clinton, after the successful outcome of the impeachment process for him in 1999, had a higher rating than before re-election in 1996.

However, it is not necessary for Democrats to engage in a tough fight with Trump. On a variety of issues they can work with him. For example, a bill on reform of the criminal justice system, supported by the president, scored 87 out of 100 votes in the senate. It also happened shortly before Christmas, but less was written about this in the press.

In addition, the infrastructure bill proposed by Donald Trump ($ 1 trillion is planned to be invested in the infrastructure of the country) may also receive support from both parties.

This, of course, does not mean that complete political reconciliation can be achieved. Democrats have repeatedly admitted that Trump for them is not just an opponent, but an existential enemy. The relevant committees of the House of Representatives, which from January will be in the hands of the Democrats, will conduct about a dozen investigations against the president. Under the microscope, his family, his company, the business of his friends will be examined. It is unlikely that Special Prosecutor Muller will be released easily to the deserved rest. But all these investigative actions can continue safely until 2024 and have no effect on the activities of the president.

Trump can knock down only serious negative phenomena in the economy. So far, despite the prophecies of the free trade gurus and the fall in stock market indices, the real sector feels great. GDP continues to grow at a record pace, unemployment is at its lowest in the last 30 years, new industrial enterprises are being built in the country - in short, “tramponomy” is working. Therefore, one can hardly trust statements about the imminent completion of the “chaotic and short era of Trump”. The pre-Christmas demarches of the 45th President show that he is confident in himself and prefers offensive to passive defense.

Trump intends to remain Trump. And stay at your post. This can only be changed by the presidential elections of 2020, preparations for which will begin in the spring of 2019.

* “Islamic State” (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.