The Turkish-Emirati conflict in the Red Sea. How did Erdogan win?

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The political and economic conflict in the Middle East extends between Turkey and the UAE, where Turkey wishes to capitalize on the great economic success it has achieved since the AKP came to power in 2002 and then expanded its economic and political influence to East and Central Africa. On the other hand, the UAE is trying to impose its influence and control over the Red Sea to thwart any attempt to establish a port that provides logistical services for ships and reduces the competitiveness of Jebel Ali Port in Dubai.

Turkey is trying to invest in Arab and African countries that have a comparative advantage, such as Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan, which are located on the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is one of the main arteries of trade. Because of the fact that five per cent of world trade passes through that vital spot, with no tangible return on the peoples of those countries suffering from extreme poverty. Unlike a small island like Singapore, which overlooks the Strait of Malacca, which accounts for a quarter of the world's trade, it has become the world's largest logistics service provider, reflecting the country's national income. The Turkish government wants to benefit from the Bab al-Mandab Strait by establishing a logistics and economic base to serve as a launching pad for African markets in the Nile Basin and East Africa, depending on the historical relations with the peoples of the region since the days of the Ottoman Caliphate.

Economic threat to Dubai port

In the Arabian Gulf, where Jebel Ali Port, one of the region's largest ports, provides logistic services in the Arabian Gulf and South Asia, its location within the Gulf is difficult to sustain at the same rate due to potential alternatives in the region such as Gwadar And the presence of ports closer to the trade line in the Red Sea in Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. Prompting the Emirate of Dubai to manage and operate ports in its biosphere and in more active areas, based on its experience in managing the world-renowned Jebel Ali Port in Dubai.

The government of the UAE began to expand its activities in the field of port management and entered into long-term contracts for the operation of the ports of Durale in Djibouti in 2004, Aden port of Yemen and Ain Sukhna port in Egypt in 2008 and obtained a concession to operate the port of Assab in Eritrea in 2015. The ports of Dubai were deliberately slowing the development of cargo and unloading services, because the development of these vital ports overlooking the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb transport services trade from the port of Jebel Ali to these ports for the direct landing on international trade routes, which reduces the economic activity of the port, What Imar fears Dubai.

The expulsion of the UAE from Yemen and Djibouti

Which prompted Yemen in 2012 to cancel the contract of the DP company operating Aden port because of the decline in the performance of the performance, as the number of containers before the contract in 2008 from 492 thousand containers to only 146 thousand in 2012. This action encouraged the Government of Djibouti to expel the company DP Of the port of Doralia in February 2018 after refusing to expand the port or the establishment of any facilities on him, which Djibouti considered a derogation from its sovereignty.

UAE presence in Ethiopia

The political unrest in Ethiopia in the last three years, which resulted in the resignation of the Prime Minister and the election of Abi Ahmed of the Oromo ethnic population in March 2018, and immediately after his inauguration, the UAE gave Ethiopia $ 3 billion in aid, in exchange for the transfer of Ethiopian trade from the port of the Djibouti dorality from which the UAE was expelled. To the ports of the Eritrean nerve and the Berber of Somalia, which is under the management of the UAE. For this purpose, five profits were given to the Somali port of Berbera by the Ethiopian government, without reference to the Somali government, which responded by canceling the Berbera port management contract due to the transfer of part of the profits to Ethiopia. This reflects a reprisal from the Government of Djibouti without taking into account the financial rights of the central Somali government.

Turkey's economic presence in Djibouti and Ethiopia

On the other hand, Turkey was planning to establish an economic zone in Djibouti in late 2017 as a base for East Africa. In order to do so, it paved the Tadjoura road connecting Djibouti and Ethiopia. Its investments in Ethiopia exceeded $ 3 billion, Of the factories, where Ethiopia is one of the African tigers in East Africa and a population of close to 100 million people, which is a large market for Turkish products.

Turkish presence in Somalia

Turkey has supported the Somali government since 2011 despite the fragile security and economic situation, and provided health and education services in the capital Mogadishu, and contributed to projects to dig wells and pave the main roads in the capital. Turkish Airlines has also linked Somalia to European airports, where a Turkish company has been operating Mogadishu airport since 2014. In the same context, a Turkish company obtained a contract to manage the port of Mogadishu close to international trade lines. Turkish President Erdogan inaugurated a Turkish military base in 2017, To secure Turkish interests in the Horn of Africa and to train Somali security forces.

Turkish presence in Sudan

Turkey signed a contract with the Sudan in December 2017 to lease the Red Sea island of Suakin for Ottoman restoration. However, the Turkish Defense Minister's visit to the island in late 2018 reinforced speculation of a military base to secure Turkish interests and to protect Sudan from frequent Israeli air strikes Of the Israeli military base in the Eritrean Dakhl archipelago, where the Sudan was bombed in 2012 and 2015 by Israeli aircraft under the pretext of hitting weapons stores of Hamas in Khartoum. Erdogan also signed a contract for the establishment of the largest airport in Africa in Khartoum in exchange for the right of management for 30 years, as part of the Turkish government plans to break into the African market in the field of air and sea services.

The Turkish project is based on the optimal utilization of the capabilities and capabilities of those countries that have a distinct strategic position, which will benefit the peoples of the region and the Turkish investors at the same time, in the context of strong competition with the penetration of China in the region

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The UAE acquisition of the Suez Canal

In the context of the UAE conflict with Turkey to be in the Red Sea, the Egyptian government announced in December 2018 an agreement between the Suez Canal Authority and Dubai Ports to acquire the latter half of the Suez Canal Economic Zone projects in a kind of rehabilitation against Turkey after the expulsion of the UAE from Djibouti and replacing Turkey replaces it as the economic partner of the Djibouti government.

Why did Erdogan beat the UAE?

Despite the UAE's clinging to the presence in Somalia and the intervention of political money, which resulted in the continuation of Dubai ports in the port of Berbera and the establishment of a military base near the port, but that presence does not pose a threat to Turkish investments in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, which has been planned for years, Dozens of companies in the fields of roads, ports and airports in Sudan and Somalia, in the projects of paving roads, supply of railways and power generation in Ethiopia, and projects for the construction of roads and dams in Djibouti.

The Turkish military bases in Somalia and Sudan, in addition to the economic zone in Djibouti, establish the Turkish economic, political and military presence, which the UAE fears in the context of its war against political Islam in the region. With Qatar signing a contract with the Sudanese side to establish the largest container port on the Red Sea in Sudan in November 2017, which showed the Turkish-Qatari coordination in the direction of the African market promising, making the idea of ​​expulsion of the Turkish-Qatari alliance from the Red Sea dream of a distant el-Manal.

last word:

It is clear that the presence of the UAE in the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa was in order to prevent and discourage any logistic services project in the ports of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in order to maintain the continued flow of containers to Jebel Ali Port without taking into account the aspirations and hopes of the peoples of this region, The area is seen only as an area for the establishment of military bases to protect against piracy. While the Turkish project depends on the optimal exploitation of the capabilities and potential of those countries that have a strategic position distinct, which benefits the peoples of the region and the Turkish investors at the same time, in the context of strong competition with the penetration of China in the region, Exploiting and large markets with great opportunities for growth.