US National Security Advisor to the President John Bolton said that Washington would send a carrier group led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and an operational group of bombers to Washington’s coast, which was banned, according to Trump’s version. These plans became publicly known against the background of the total deterioration of the economic situation in Iran: food and beverages (by 84.4% compared to a year ago), clothes and shoes (by 55.5% and 57.8%), transport services went up by 52.5%, entertainment - by 72%. In general, hyperinflation in all its glory. Also, local authorities have started talking about the introduction of a rationing system for the sale of gasoline.
The strategy of the States in relation to the “undesirable” country is, by and large, clear. They expect that against the background of the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in Iran, mass protests will begin, and the progressive young people, thirsting for democratic changes, and the conservatives, who have not just lost hope of removing the current President Rouhani, will receive trumps, will also protest on hand.
Already, in the media space of Iran are whispering about the possible resignation of the president. The last word, of course, for the Ayatollah Khamenei. Rahbar was initially skeptical about Rouhani’s attempts to conclude a nuclear deal with the Great Satan, and now the subordinate Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is included by the Americans in the list of terrorist organizations, so the spiritual leader of Iran is unlikely to defend the current president. Nevertheless, if, against the background of economic problems, the country is overwhelmed with protests, then the official authorities will suppress them by all means. This is exactly what American strategists are counting on.
As soon as this happens, Trump will issue himself a warrant for intervention. Remember the April 8 tweet from Secretary of State Pompeo: “We must help the people of Iran regain their freedom”?
This scheme was worked out in due time in Syria. And it seems that Washington plans to use it against Tehran. But there is one important nuance.
The success of the operation to overthrow the Iranian regime depends largely on the position of Turkey - not just a neighbor, but an active participant in the “Syrian triad” Moscow - Tehran - Ankara. That is why in recent months we have witnessed political dances around Erdogan’s decision to purchase C-400 from Russia. The logic of the States is clear: the Iranian campaign can begin under the condition that Ankara maintains allied relations with Moscow - then C-400 in Turkish territory can be a serious obstacle if the United States risks sowing democracy in Iran from the air according to the Syrian scenario.
But then Washington was lucky. Erdogan’s economy is not all right either: prices, unemployment, and popular discontent are rising.
As a result, according to the results of the local elections, the Turkish leader “lost” Istanbul and Ankara, and the former colleague and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is trying to create a competing party, and luring deputies from the Justice and Development Party to its ranks.
And by the way, he hardly went for it without promises from the outside "to help and support." And then the problems in Idlib begin: unidentified persons fired at the observation post of the Turkish Armed Forces. Two soldiers were injured. In general, all is not thanks to God on all fronts.
And the other day NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Ankara. At the meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt авavuşoлуlu, the head of the alliance again raised the issue of purchasing the C-400 and stressed that I would like to avoid mutual sanctions attacks. However, if you erase the diplomatic polish from this phrase, it is obvious that, in fact, Stoltenberg spoke about the American sanctions against Turkey, which can aggravate the already unpleasant situation for Erdogan inside the country. After all, objectively speaking, with all the desire, Turkey will not be able to symmetrically “whip” the American economy with the sanction whip.
It is difficult to say what the negotiations between Stoltenberg and авavuşolu led to, but we see that Erdogan took a desperate step: the Turkish CEC canceled the results of the mayoral elections in Istanbul. The already heated situation has become even more aggravated - the “pan-protests” began in the city. However, for some reason, the Turkish leader considered the risk justified. Do not bother him and the criticism of the EU about this. Perhaps (this is only an assumption), Erdogan is confident that the United States will not interfere in the situation, and Ankara will survive the criticism of Brussels. And this means that the visit of the head of NATO was a success.
No, Turkey will not abandon the purchase of the S-400 - it is not in the rules of Erdogan to defiantly lose face, however, as one of the options, the complexes can be integrated into the NATO air defense system. Well, or they will languish in inaction somewhere in the warehouses. In this case, it will be possible to admit: Erdogan made a deal with Trump - Turkey, as a member of NATO, at least will not prevent the States from overthrowing the Iranian regime, which has been branded today as “terrorist”. And at most ... who knows?
But there is another option. Contrary to all persuasion and, I must admit, Erdogan did not compromise with the States on effective pressure. The visit of Stoltenberg only confirmed this. And then, besides the fact that the summer will be hot with respect to Iran, it is possible that hot political processes will begin inside Turkey. June, judging by the events of three years ago, very much favors it. However, August is also a suitable month.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.