General The last chance for Washington and Tehran in Iraq

News from the island

• Mothers of convicts and fathers of dead .. Children of state fighters arrive in Russia
• Abdul Mahdi reveals the details of Trump's visit and the relationship with Syria
• Iraq .. When the country narrows and tents become a shelter
• After destruction and destruction, the heart of Mosul is beating again
• The storming of the house of Haider Abadi opens the real estate file of officials in Iraq

This year is the most dangerous year on the political process and the current political system in Iraq since its establishment after the US invasion and the formation of the first government in 2005 and the loser may not be able to knock the drums of war and will be a terrible defeat, is not a war of guns and men's front fighting men, but guerrilla war and intelligence and agents and influence and interests In a common area whose land has become like a time bomb that explodes at any moment when one of the two states declares zero hours on the other.

Will not hit the factories, schools, markets and institutions of America or Iran because they chose the land of battle far from their borders, and the victims of the war will be mostly from the sons of that land, both from the soldiers of the Agency or the land of the Holocaust, as happened in previous years and died after the recklessness of the two thousands of people who do not wear them There is nothing wrong with this war. There is no honor, no covenant, no covenant between the two sides of the conflict with the people of the land, who were tormented by Allah with oil and the graves of the righteous.

Before entering into the parties to the conflict and what may be weighted on each other to agree that more than 90% of Iraqis reject any Iranian or American presence on their land and they are vengeful on the current political process because of the failure of repeated 15 years, which resulted in high illiteracy rate Poverty and unemployment, and financial and administrative corruption, in addition to the migration and displacement of more than 8 million people and the death and disability of more than 2 million people and the destruction of several cities and torture of its people and the high rate of organized crime and trafficking in drugs and human beings after 2003.

After the recent visit by US President Donald Trump to his country's forces in Anbar in the west of the country and his indifference to meeting any Iraqi official in a message that this government was formed with Iranian blessing and does not represent the American vision. This may be a real recognition of reality and an American embrace of Iranian hegemony for the first time in many years, It seems that the United States has become clearer since losing the election battle and forming the government in Iraq for Iran and its influence. It is also a recognition by the Trump administration of its failure in the Iraqi file, especially after relying on a meager and naïve figure like Bret McGuck Resigned remorse Trump said he did not know like this disowned the man who satiation Thazeeia described Balvashl and weak by Iraqi politicians.

No matter what the counterpart of the other side are the senior leadership of the Iranian elite, such as Mujtaba Khamenei and Qasim Soleimani and other names on which the Iranian regime depends greatly must have enjoyed the loss between the corridors, but in the recent changes that included the Minister of Defense in addition to strengthening the presence in the military bases on The land, surrounded by troops and reinforcements in the Gulf and around Iraq, shows that Washington realizes that it is in an unreliable territory, that it needs support for empowerment and that these forces are not an easy target for the fire of Iranian forces or armed factions.

Iran has a long and open land border with Iraq and for more than ten years has been the most influential of the United States in Iraq and has been able to install parties and personalities close to it in power over the past period, and has recently won 90% of the The political class involved in the political process and not only that, but worked to strengthen the armed wings of the parties loyal to them and supported the establishment of armed factions directed and managed by them until the battles came against the preacher and verify what you dream.

The army is more powerful than the official forces in Iraq and moves and is conducted in a dogmatic manner, as in the Revolutionary Guard and Basij and armed with all types of heavy weapons, including tanks, aircraft and guns and has a special budget in the Iraqi state has been equal salaries of soldiers with salaries of soldiers in the Ministry of Defense, A thousand US dollars, these forces registered in the government lists, which are more than 100 thousand fighters are not the only ones to rely on Iran, as last year Tehran opened the door to the mobilization of forces called "mobilization" and registered volunteers in the houses of worship, "Husseiniat" as This is the case in Basra, where these fighters have opened special training centers supervised by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Despite ideological differences in western and central Iraq and even northern areas such as Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Anbar, Iran has been able to adapt thousands there through its close politicians and tribal sheikhs who are looking for money and lost wealth. Thus, Tehran has dominated the Iraqi arena militarily without sending Its army relying on agents to secure the first line of defense for them, which is Iraq does not consider Iraq as a land of empowerment, but a line to remove the opponents and preoccupation with them as is the case in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria.

The United States has two options, both of which undermine the Iranian presence in Iraq. The first is to reintroduce its forces to Baghdad, as it did in 2003, and to install a military governor, then an interim government, the parties and entities currently in its structure, This option is ruled out despite the fact that it is a radical solution, because the Trump administration will not risk such behavior, especially since it is a deficient and confusing administration since its formation. Many of its leaders have been sacked and its president has made unique decisions, which means that they will not be bold enough to make such a decision Without any planning and study Proceed beyond what. And this will open the door of armed fighting again and this time from the armed factions and trained and rhetoric, in addition to the opponents of Washington and many will raise a number of international controversy and problems.

The current political class is a group of users who can change their skin three times a day. After America came to them and made them powerful, they turned against it immediately after Iran's domination of the Iraqi scene

Reuters

The second option is to gradually return its military forces to the previous bases and start again by creating and winning political forces, especially those excluded from influence and active participation in the formation of the government, in addition to those who do not fully agree with Iran, and try to arrange their papers in the political process that was built in a lame way, Is able to impose its control over the land and the government again and this option is the closest but it will not achieve what it aspires to, especially as Iran has occupied all parts of the state and civil and independent organizations and religious, cultural and social bodies, and built a base that America can not put one layer Above, the last was enough to establish The years what it wants Iran from Iraq.

If it is the year of confrontation and the year of weighting one of the two extremes and the year of direct and indirect conflict, and can be called the last stage of the game, where there must be a victor, as a reader and specialist on the Iraqi issue is likely the American arsenal of Iranian mobilization and the experience we have in 2003 can not overcome the American force and weapons No matter how strong the soldiers are, the US will be stronger and tougher, and Iran will not send planes, barges and its army to protect them from burning as a firewood to prolong the life of its regime as long as possible.

In addition, the current political class is a group of beneficiaries who can change their skin three times a day. After America came and made them influential, they turned against it immediately after Iran's domination of the Iraqi scene. They will do the same if America reacts with power and influence again. But everyone is interested in stopping chaos, displacement and restoring stability, even if he updates the map of Sykes and Pico for the region.