After 18 years of rule, Angela Merkel decided that she would no longer fight for the presidency of the CDU in December of this year and would not try to keep the post of chancellor in 2021. Merkel said: “I’m convinced that we should pause, at least me. And I want us to see yesterday’s election as a turning point. ” Merkel could not be the savior of Europe. It did not work out for her to return the attractiveness to “European values” and liberal democracy. When such mastodons of public policy go into retirement, it’s time to sound the alarm: there is an existential European crisis.
Merkel acted wisely. Seeing that the limit of trust among party members was exhausted, she decided not to wait for the next party congress (where they could crush her). Problems with trust began long ago. A year ago, they entered the crucial stage. Last summer, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, head of the Christian Social Union, actually disrupted the government’s work, threatening to resign due to Merkel’s immigration policy.
In September, the party of Merkel expelled Volker Cowder, one of her most loyal allies in the Bundestag. Now the Secretary General of the CDU Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the Federal Minister of Health Jens Shpan claim the place of the head of the CDU. Germany is actually a party democracy, which means that the next head of the CDU is likely to be the next chancellor.
But the main intrigue lies in the fate of the coalition. Today, the ratings of the ruling party are more than modest. According to polls, about 25% of voters support the party. If a weakened SPD leaves the coalition, then this can finally bury the coalition. Against the background of the shame of the CDU and the SPD, the results of the “Alternatives for Germany” look increasingly impressive. The party scored 13% in Hesse, which is 8% more than its result in 2013. Currently, the AdG is represented in all 16 regional parliaments of Germany and is the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.
It seems that the main ideas of Merkel - the deepening of European integration and the protection of the unity of the European Union - are finding less and less understanding among the Germans. The Germans are tired of paying for "European integration", which is carried out mainly at their expense. Many rightly believe that it was enough once - when Germany paid doubly for the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis.
And as the same Macron tries to fight against the anti-liberal Hungary of Viktor Orban, sending a liberal democracy to the devil is becoming an increasingly attractive prospect.
The European Parliament imposed disciplinary action against Hungary for alleged violations of fundamental democratic values, but Orban has already announced that he will not be blackmailed. Germany will not allow Hungary to lose the right to vote in the union, so all sanctions will be only symbolic. Germany invested tens of millions of dollars in Budapest (primarily in the construction and automotive industry). Among the economic allies of Hungary, it is worth mentioning Russia (which is involved in the expansion of the Budapest underground lines and the Paks NPP) and China (which helps in the reconstruction of the Budapest-Belgrade railway line). The Orban government questioned the legitimacy of voting in the European Parliament due to the fact that when counting the votes of the required majority, the number of abstentions was not taken into account, making it clear that it would fight back.
It seems that the model of the national state proposed by Orban, as well as the success of the right in Austria, immigration and disappointment in European integration will be the main themes of the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament, which will be decisive in many ways. The two largest right-wing parties in Italy and France have already launched a joint campaign: Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen said in Rome that after the May elections they intend to approve the "Europe of nations" on the continent.
However, even under the condition of a change in the political vector in Europe, the question of exactly what methods the accumulated problems will be solved (in particular, the migration crisis) remains open. So Frau really knows when to go into the sunset.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.