After the crisis of the lira and the arrest of the pastor .. What are the reasons for the recent Turkish-American rapprochement?

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Since the end of the Cold War, American-Turkish relations have entered a new phase, which has strengthened the Turkish status of the Americans, since Turkey has played effective roles in line with American plans through its participation in the international coalition established by the Americans against Iraq in the early nineties and allowing US forces to use Turkish territory to carry out military operations against Iraq in 1991 Turkey also contributed to the implementation of the no-fly zone in northern Iraq, and despite the expectations that prevailed in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkish status did not decline in the eyes of the United States, but the changes witnessed by the world In general, and the changes that have occurred in the Middle East, in particular, carried within them a new form of the nature of the Turkish role.

The most prominent of these developments is the emergence of new countries neighboring Turkey or close to them following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the need of the Americans to extend their influence to them by taking advantage of the cultural and historical relations between these emerging countries and Turkey, and the decline of the regional role of Iraq after the first Gulf War and its economic blockade, After the Madrid Peace Conference, the events of 11 September 2001, the announcement by President George W. Bush of the war on terror, the growing regional influence of Iran since the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the outbreak of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, North Atlantic after the end of the Cold War.

The Turkish-American relations have undergone a new transformation since 2003, when the Turkish parliament refused to allow US troops to use Turkish territory to attack Iraq. This event may be inseparable from the changes that have taken place in Turkey since the rise of the AK Party to power, Through which the party sought to achieve the independence of the national political decision, based on the Turkish national interests, and ending the stage of subordination to others.

The United States and NATO have abandoned Turkey during the crisis of the downing of the Russian aircraft. The United States has supported the protection units of the Kurdish people, which Turkey regards as a Syrian wing of the Workers' Party Kurdistan, which threatens the Turkish national security, in addition to what Turkey described the American position lax about the referendum that took place in the Kurdistan region of Iraq in 2017, which is indicative of the American desire to keep the paper Kurds as one of the tools Its foreign policy toward Turkey, and the US's unwavering stance on the failed coup attempt in Turkey in July 2016.

As well as the diplomatic crisis resulting from the announcement by the US Embassy in Ankara to suspend all visa services at its US headquarters and consulates in Turkey on October 10, 2017. The Turkish authorities responded by a similar decision and the case of the Turkish businessman of Iranian origin Reza Darab detained in the United States, That he made confessions related to the break of Turkey to the embargo on Iran in addition to the decision of US President Donald Trump to recognize the city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and may not be the crisis of the US pastor Andrew Branson, which Turkey released recently was the last crisis In the relations between the two countries in view of the fundamental transformation that has occurred in the system of government in Turkey since 2003.

A transient disagreement or a strategic crisis ?!

Although the arrest of Rev. Branson was the direct cause of the recent dispute between Washington and Ankara, we can not read it in isolation from a continuous context rooted in the era of former US President Barack Obama, where the relations between the two countries to a situation can be characterized by a crisis characterized by differences of views and different positions Of the hot issues in the Middle East, especially the Syrian crisis, the Palestinian issue and the position of the Arab revolutions and mechanisms to deal with its output, the American position on the democratic situation and human rights in Turkey, and Turkish mistrust of the American position foggy and void Obviously us to try the coup in 2016, the United States and reservation to buy Turkey's system of Russian missiles S four hundred and invoked the US Congress in its attempts to block Turkey received the F-thirty-five.

Direct cause

In December 2016, the Turkish authorities arrested the American priest of British origin Andrew Branson, charged with espionage and carrying out activities related to the organization of Gulen and the PKK. However, the US authorities considered this arrest unjustifiable and accused Turkey of arresting him for trade with Fatah Gulen, Mohammed Attila, who was arrested by US authorities and accused of helping to circumvent US sanctions on Iran.

In August 2018, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey because of its refusal to release the priest. The arrest was ordered by a judicial decision. The intervention of these cases undermines the independence of the Turkish judiciary. The United States demanded the extradition of the organization's leader, Fathullah Gulen, To stand behind the failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkey has rejected the sanctions and considered a trade war on them.

US sanctions are not the cause of the suffering of the Turkish economy but they have increased the existing problems and the sanctions on Turkey have limited impact and my time did not look

Reuters

Sanctions in two stages

The US sanctions came in two first installments against Turkish justice and interior ministers, including confiscation of their property, banning US citizens from entering into transactions with them, and freezing of assets expected in the United States for both. Turkey announced sanctions against the US Attorney General and the US Secretary of Homeland Security on reciprocity. The announcement of US sanctions on Turkey led to a sharp deterioration in the Turkish lira against the US dollar and high inflation. The second batch of sanctions announced by US President Donald Trump It was the imposition of customs duties on steel and aluminum imported from Turkey by 50 percent for steel and 20 percent for aluminum. Turkey's exports of steel and aluminum to the United States account for 13 percent of its total exports.

The US sanctions coincided with two Turkish ministers with a sharp drop in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar and the consequent rise in prices and the high rate of inflation, but the decline in the exchange rate of the pound is not linked to the US sanctions, but has extensions related to the overall economic situation in the country and mechanisms followed The Turkish economy worked and managed, but US sanctions seemed to increase this problem.

With the negative effects of the depreciation of the pound, this has the positive effect of increasing the exports of the country whose currency is devalued if the US sanctions are not the cause of the Turkish economy suffering but they have increased the existing problems. The sanctions on Turkey have limited effect and my time has not been extended. The release of the US pastor began talking about lifting sanctions on Turkey. Taking the Turkish-American relationship is a positive course in recent times. It is not enough to rebuild the confidence that has faltered over more than a decade and a half. The various statements by the American side will not close Turkey's eye to actual American practices.