The warning from the German government's Corona Expert Council is unmistakable: "Rapidly rising incidences harbor high risks for the critical infrastructure (...) In Germany," says the scientists' report.

Because the expected spread of the Omikron variant is likely to cause numerous employees to be absent due to illness or quarantine, an extreme burden on hospitals, police, fire brigade, electricity and water supply, among other things, is to be feared at the beginning of the coming year.

Should these scenarios materialize, the pandemic would have reached a new, more serious dimension.

However, a survey in the areas mentioned shows: So far, it has been assumed that they will be able to withstand an even stronger corona wave.

Christian Geinitz

Business correspondent in Berlin

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Johannes Pennekamp

Responsible editor for economic reporting, responsible for “Die Lounge”.

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The greatest burden threatens the hospitals, because there is not only a risk of staff shortages, but also the workload will increase even further.

Even if all clinics concentrate exclusively on the care of emergencies and urgent interventions, “it will no longer be possible to provide adequate quality care for all sick people,” warns the panel of experts.

Gerald Gaß, CEO of the German Hospital Association, sounds less concerned.

"Basically, we have given our own employees the best possible protection in the hospital because the staff was vaccinated and boosted very early on," he said.

Nevertheless, the individual clinic locations would take their precautionary measures in order to maintain the essential tasks even in the event of a major staff shortage.

On alert

In the past few months, however, clinics and medical practices were not prepared for a renewed wave of infections and isolation among employees - because most of them were double-vaccinated. Omikron could undermine this protection, so that the health system could come under double pressure, as it did before the first vaccination campaign began. At least most doctors and nurses should be boosted, which should alleviate the problem.

The Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, or BBK for short, plays an important role in preventing the critical infrastructure from collapsing. The Office has created guides to pandemic and contingency plans to help companies prepare. The BBK is also on the alert in view of the “greatly increased transferability of Omikron” and calls on companies, among other things, to identify “key personnel for core processes” and to name replacement personnel and to adjust storage as far as possible.

In practice, the particularly important sectors and companies beyond the hospitals refer to existing contingency plans and feel that they are generally well prepared. The Association of Energy and Water Management BdEW, for example, expects less severe disease progression, as the vaccination quota of employees reaches 80 to 90 percent. It is also positive that many systems function automatically or are controlled remotely. “Nonetheless, it is of course necessary to employ personnel whose protection is given the highest priority.” Particular attention is paid to “operationally necessary key personnel” who cannot be easily replaced and are therefore given special protection. This applies, for example, to activities in network and power plant control centers and in fault and average service. BdEW boss Kerstin Andreae assured: "We can saythat the security of supply is guaranteed despite the Omikron risk. "

Municipal utilities, garbage collectors and other municipal suppliers and disposal companies also feel well prepared for Omikron. "The municipal companies have permanently activated their crisis teams and the internal multi-stage pandemic plans and are continuously adapting their measures to new situations," says Ingbert Liebing, General Manager of the Association of Municipal Companies (VKU). Should there be a shortage of personnel, densely populated areas have priority. Helmut Dedy, General Manager of the German Association of Cities, announced that duty rosters would be designed in such a way "that employees from vacation can be called upon in the event of bottlenecks". Transport companies such as Deutsche Bahn and the Hamburg-Holstein transport company announced thatthey observed developments closely and exchanged views with politicians and experts.

The Hessian police assured "to ensure the protection of the population and the public safety and order in the whole of Hesse", among other things by moving staff if necessary.

Like the energy industry, the police emphasize their high vaccination rate.

However, it remained unclear how many employees had already been boosted, which could be decisive for sick leave.

Experience from the Bautzen district gives hope here.

The 7-day incidence there had risen to its peak at the end of November to 1,791.2.

However, the critical infrastructure withstood so far that a disaster did not have to be declared, according to the district office.