Is the pork price turning point coming?

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month.

Among them, pork prices contributed about 1.74 percentage points to the increase in CPI, which is the most important factor affecting the increase in CPI.

　　In August, pork prices rose by 52.6% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month; a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points.

This shows that although pork prices are still relatively high, the rate of increase has been narrowing.

　　Since last year, due to multiple factors, the supply of live pigs has been greatly reduced, and the price of pork has risen sharply. Many consumers have exclaimed to "quit pork."

However, with the implementation of a series of policy measures to support the production of live pigs, the enthusiasm of local farmers to replenish hogs has increased significantly.

In addition, the central government's precise research and judgment and timely release of reserve pork have stabilized the increase in meat prices and stabilized consumption expectations.

　　Since August, many domestic large-scale breeding companies have also entered the production capacity release period, and a large number of live pigs will soon be released for slaughter.

It is expected that as the stock of live pigs and the volume of slaughter return to positive in September and October year-on-year, pork supply will return to normal, and the motivation to support pork prices to maintain high levels will no longer exist. Pork price turning points may appear between September and October.

　　Of course, from the perspective of conducive to the long-term stable and healthy development of the market, we do not want to see the pork price usher in the "turning point" and start a round of "unstoppable" market.

Only when the price of pork is stable at a reasonable level, farmers have a reasonable return on investment, and consumers can afford meat, can the entire breeding industry maintain a healthy and stable development.

(This article Source: Economic Daily Author: Forest Fire Can)