Short-term supply and demand are favorable, spot prices are relatively high
Average pork wholesale price rises before holiday
According to the market operation monitoring system of the Ministry of Commerce, consumption demand in the pork market has increased recently. From January 22 to 28, the retail price of pork in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Pork prices rose the most in the eastern region, with Jinan, Xiamen and Qingdao rising by 3.6%, 3.1% and 1.5% respectively. Analysts believe that both supply and demand of pork will shrink in 2024, but the decline in supply may be greater than the decline in demand. It is expected that the price of white pork will increase year-on-year in 2024, and the profitability of upstream and downstream companies may improve to some extent.
The market begins stocking up for the Spring Festival as short-term demand picks up
According to the monitoring of the national pig big data center, on January 31, 2024, the price of three-yuan pigs in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) increased by 30%, fell by 0%, and showed an upward trend.
Industry leaders have also noticed this trend. On the evening of January 30, Muyuan held a telephone exchange conference. Qin Jun, secretary of the board of directors of Muyuan Co., Ltd., said that the company has noticed that the price of commercial pigs has recovered significantly. The price recovery has regional characteristics. Among them, the price of pigs in the region centered on Henan Province has increased significantly. "It is now in the peak season before the Spring Festival, and sales are at the same price. Looking at the whole year of 2024, it is a little more optimistic than 2023."
Ningzheng Futures pointed out that as the Spring Festival approaches, local rain and snow weather often hinders the transportation of pigs, and logistics and transportation resources are tight, and freight rates have increased. At the same time, terminals have begun stocking up for the year, and demand in rural areas and towns has increased significantly, and short-term supply and demand have increased favorably. The spot price is relatively high, and the front-month contract has provided bottom support, but the upward trend is not sustainable.
Ruida Futures also analyzed that, fundamentally speaking, the spot market continues to operate strongly, the market has begun to stock up for the Spring Festival, and demand has picked up to a certain extent. In addition, there was a large concentration of sales in December last year, resulting in limited sales pressure in January, which also limits short-term sales. Supply pressure. Looking at the market, the price of live pigs has been relatively weak, but the power to continue falling in the short term is limited.
The price of white strip pork is expected to rise year-on-year this year
Ma Liyuan, a meat market analyst at Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that under the influence of multiple factors, terminal demand for pork has declined to a certain extent in recent years. At present, the inventory of frozen products in slaughtering enterprises is relatively large. According to statistics, as of the third week of January 2024, the frozen product storage capacity rate of slaughtering enterprises was 23.92%, a year-on-year increase of 5.44 percentage points. Zhuochuang Information predicts that in 2024, the price of white strip pork may show a "slight decrease-increase-slight decrease" trend, with the annual average price rising year-on-year, but the extent is limited. Since the backlog of pig sources before the Spring Festival is difficult to fully digest, the breeding end is not very willing to hold the market after the Spring Festival, and the supply of live pigs and pork is relatively abundant. As the slaughter volume gradually decreases and the weather turns colder and the demand increases, the price of white pork is expected to rise to the high point of the year in November this year, and the price may fall slightly in December due to the concentrated release of pig sources.
Dongguan Securities released a research report stating that my country is the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs and pork. In the medium to long term, there is still considerable room for improvement in the scale and concentration of my country's pig breeding industry. It is expected that the global supply of soybeans and corn will be loose overall in 2024, my country's pig breeding costs may continue to fall, and pig breeding profits are expected to gradually rebound.
market data
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" on February 4 was 134.05, an increase of 1.67 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 on February 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 22.17 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.7% from last Friday.
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Guangzhou’s first policy-based pig futures price insurance is launched
Guangzhou Daily (All Media Reporter Zhao Dongqin) Guangzhou’s first policy-based pig futures price insurance was implemented in Conghua. On February 4, reporters learned from the Guangzhou Branch of China PICC Property and Casualty Co., Ltd. that the company, together with Guangjin Futures, recently raised 8,500 pigs for Guangzhou Nordic Farm Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Nordic Farm"). The fattening pigs provide a price risk protection of approximately 12.2 million yuan. The implementation of the pig price "insurance + futures" project marks the upgrade of Guangzhou's pig insurance products from cost protection to income protection.
Guangzhou is one of the largest pig consumption markets in the country, with a daily consumption of 20,000 pigs. Since 2023, pig prices have continued to be low, coupled with the unfavorable factors of rising feed prices at the breeding end, pig farming companies and consumers have been deeply troubled. The stability of pork supply is related to the "vegetable basket" of the people. With the joint efforts of the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Guangzhou Municipal Finance Bureau, and the Guangzhou Municipal Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, Guangzhou's policy pig futures price insurance was included in the policy insurance for the first time. scope.
"In recent years, the pig market price has fluctuated greatly. With low pig prices and high feed prices, pig raising has become less and less confident. Now the government bears 70% of the premiums, and we only need to pay 30% to get insurance (hog futures price insurance) , I have confidence in raising pigs again." said the person in charge of the Nordic farm.
Text/Xu Xiaofang, all-media reporter from Guangzhou Daily