National Bureau of Statistics: CPI continued to rise month-on-month in January, while PPI decline narrowed

　　China News Service, February 8. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data for January 2024 on the 8th. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the CPI continued to rise month-on-month in January, and the PPI decline narrowed.

CPI rose month-on-month for two consecutive months

　　In January, affected by the holiday effect, residents' consumption demand continued to increase, and the national CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, rising for two consecutive months; affected by the higher comparison base of the Spring Festival in the same month of the previous year, it fell by 0.8% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month, which was consistent with the average level for the same period in the past decade; it rose 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase.

　　From a month-on-month perspective, CPI increased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices increased by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.08 percentage points. In food, affected by factors such as cold wave weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the prices of shrimps and crabs, fresh vegetables, potatoes and fresh mushrooms increased by 9.3%, 3.8%, 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, which collectively affected the CPI increase by about 0.12 percentage points; market The supply was relatively sufficient, and the prices of eggs, edible oil, fresh fruits and pork fell by 1.7%, 1.0%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Non-food prices increased by 0.2% from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.19 percentage points. Among non-food products, travel demand increased, and air ticket and tourism prices increased by 12.1% and 4.2% respectively, which together affected the CPI increase by about 0.10 percentage points; affected by the return of migrant workers before the holiday and the increase in demand for services, housekeeping services, hairdressing and maternal and infant services The prices of nursing services increased by 4.8%, 4.6% and 1.5% respectively; affected by changes in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices fell by 1.0%.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, CPI fell by 0.8%, a decline that expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year decline expanded mainly because last year’s Spring Festival fell in January, coupled with the increase in consumer demand after the epidemic prevention and control period in the same period, resulting in a higher comparison base last year. Among them, food prices fell by 5.9%, affecting the CPI to fall by about 1.13 percentage points. Among foods, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits dropped by 17.3%, 12.7% and 9.1% respectively, which together affected the CPI to fall by about 0.78 percentage points, accounting for more than 90% of the year-on-year CPI decline. They were the main factors driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. Non-food prices increased by 0.4%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.32 percentage points. Among non-food items, service prices increased by 0.5%, among which the prices of housekeeping services and other household services increased by 3.5% and 2.4% respectively, both of which expanded; tourism prices increased by 1.8%, with a slight decrease; air ticket prices fell by 13.6%, with a decrease of somewhat expanded. The price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month, of which energy prices increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month.

　　According to estimates, the year-on-year change in CPI of -0.8% in January had a tail-over impact of approximately -1.1 percentage points; the new impact of this year's price changes was approximately 0.3 percentage points.

PPI month-on-month and year-on-year decreases both narrowed

　　In January, affected by factors such as international commodity price fluctuations and some domestic industries entering the traditional off-season for production, the national PPI declined month-on-month and year-on-year, but the declines narrowed.

　　From a month-on-month perspective, PPI fell by 0.2%, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 0.2%, the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; the price of living materials fell by 0.2%, the decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point. Affected by the price fluctuations of crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities in the international market, prices in the domestic oil and natural gas mining industry fell by 0.8%, and prices in the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry fell by 1.7%, with both declines narrowing; the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry Prices rose by 0.3%, with zinc smelting and aluminum smelting prices rising by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The demand for replenishment of steel stocks before the holiday increased, and prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 0.4%. Heating demand increased in some areas, and prices in the coal mining and washing industry rose slightly by 0.1%. Demand for chemical products, cement and other industrial products was weak, with prices in the manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products falling by 1.1%, and prices in the non-metallic mineral products industry falling by 0.6%. Prices of lithium-ion battery manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing fell by 2.6%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 2.5%, and the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 3.0%, the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points; the price of living materials fell by 1.1%, the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point. Among the major industries, prices in the coal mining and washing industry dropped by 16.0%, prices in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry dropped by 6.1%, prices in the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry dropped by 4.4%, and prices in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry dropped by 4.2%. Prices in the manufacturing industry of computer communications and other electronic equipment fell by 3.0%. The declines in the above five industries all narrowed compared with the previous month. The total impact on the PPI fell by approximately 1.47 percentage points year-on-year, and the pull-down effect on the PPI decreased by 0.28 percentage points compared with the previous month; non- Prices in the metal mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 8.0% and 2.9% respectively, and the declines were larger than those in the previous month. Prices in the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 3.4% from a decrease of 1.6% in the previous month. Prices in the nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 0.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　According to calculations, in the year-on-year change of PPI of -2.5% in January, the impact of tailing was approximately -2.3 percentage points, and the new impact of this year's price changes was approximately -0.2 percentage points.