In 24 days, it will be nine months since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine.

As the coldness of winter becomes more severe, there is a view that fighting will intensify in the future, mainly in the eastern part of the country.

Ukrainian forces aim to retake more occupied territories

The Russian army, which continues to invade Ukraine, has repeatedly attacked infrastructure facilities such as power plants with missiles and drones, and among them, there were multiple explosions in the capital Kyiv on the 23rd, killing three people.



Ukrainian state-owned power company "Ukruenergo" announced on the 23rd that it will implement a 24-hour emergency power outage nationwide, and the power shortage is becoming more serious as the winter cold becomes more severe.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian military intends to take the initiative in the war situation and aim to further recapture the occupied territories, taking advantage of the recapture of Kherson, an important town in the south this month, using weapons provided by Europe and the United States.



In response, the Russian military is believed to have deployed some of the troops withdrawn from Kherson to the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.



Furthermore, it has been pointed out that China is building a wide-ranging defensive line to maintain its territory, and some say that fighting will intensify in the future, mainly in the eastern part of the country.



On the other hand, Russia is also making contact with the United States, such as President Putin's aide, Foreign Intelligence Agency Director Naryshkin, meeting with the US CIA = Central Intelligence Agency Director Byrnes in Turkey this month.



However, at the moment there is no apparent movement toward a ceasefire, and the Russian military is believed to still maintain a sufficient number of combat units despite being subjected to fierce counterattacks from the Ukrainian military, and there are concerns that the fighting will be prolonged further. It has been.

Expert ``Winter battle will intensify, will it continue until next year?''

In an interview with NHK, Yu Koizumi, a full-time lecturer at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo, who is familiar with Russian military affairs and security, expressed the view that the fighting will intensify during the winter and that it will be unavoidable for a long time.



Regarding the current war situation, Mr. Koizumi pointed out that the Ukrainian army recaptured Kherson, a key town in the south, this month, saying, "In the past two months, the pace of the Ukrainian army has progressed, but from now on, Ukraine will take the initiative. It is becoming uncertain whether we can continue to take it or whether Russia will take it back." He said that the two armies facing each other across the Dnipro River would find it difficult to attack each other, and that the front line around Kherson would enter a stalemate. showed.



On top of that, "Russia is trying to set up a new battlefield in Donbass in the east, and is launching a very violent offensive, especially around Bakhmut. For the time being, the major battles will be suspended, and both Russia and Ukraine will prepare for the next major offensive." I'm about to leave, but I think it's a situation where we're trying to figure out when and where."

In addition, regarding the battlefields in Ukraine, which has entered winter, the muddy ground in autumn freezes, making it easier for tanks and other vehicles to move, while it is said that it will be difficult to perform defensive activities such as digging trenches in the frozen ground.


After that, he said, ``The game will be about which side launches a large-scale offensive first and makes the other side passive.'' .



He added, “I think the fighting this winter will intensify. It will continue until early spring, and when the soil becomes muddy again in early spring, the battle will be resumed in the summer, so we can see the course that the battle will continue until the end of next year."

Furthermore, regarding Russia's missile attacks on infrastructure facilities such as power plants in Ukraine, he said, "It's a kind of outfield brawl. It's becoming impossible to win on the battlefield, so I want to be able to win somewhere else. However, at some point, Russia will have no choice but to stop its cruise missile attacks aimed at the lives of its residents, and the battlefield will become the focus," he said, continuing the cruise missile attacks. He pointed out that there are limits to what you can do.



Regarding Russia's future course of action, he said, ``It seems to be a major goal of the Russian side to bring Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence.This is not a goal that can be easily given up.''