The 24th marks two years since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine.
While the Russian military is increasing its military strength and intensifying its offensive, the Ukrainian military is unable to proceed as planned due to factors such as stagnant support from the West, and it is expected that the difficult situation for Ukraine will continue.
We will keep you updated on developments regarding the situation in Ukraine on the 24th (Japan time), including the situation of the battle and the diplomacy of the countries involved.
(There is a 7 hour time difference between Japan and Ukraine, and a 6 hour time difference with Moscow, Russia)
table of contents
attention
The results of the attitude survey conducted jointly by NHK and a local research organization are
Two years after the military invasion, the voices of Ukrainian citizens
Family of deceased Ukrainian soldier: 'We must continue fighting'
《In Russia》
Russian public opinion poll shows high support for President Putin, with some hoping for diplomatic solution
Supporters of President Putin
attention
Future outlook: Expert: ``Probably going into the fourth year''
Open table of contents
table of contents
table of contents
attention
The results of the attitude survey conducted jointly by NHK and a local research organization are
Two years after the military invasion, the voices of Ukrainian citizens
Family of deceased Ukrainian soldier: 'We must continue fighting'
《In Russia》
Russian public opinion poll shows high support for President Putin, with some hoping for diplomatic solution
Supporters of President Putin
attention
Future outlook: Expert: ``Probably going into the fourth year''
2 years of military invasion, overview so far
●Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine on February 24th.
-The Russian army continued to engage in fierce battles with the Ukrainian army in the eastern and southern regions, and was sometimes forced into a disadvantageous position, as territory that it had temporarily seized was recaptured.
However, in addition to increasing its military strength with contract soldiers, it strengthened its offensive by using not only domestically produced weapons but also missiles, drones, and large amounts of ammunition purchased from North Korea, Iran, and other countries, and regained the initiative in some areas, and this month, Ukraine They have announced that they have taken control of their side's base, Audi Iuka in the east.
-Meanwhile, last June, the Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive in the east and south, but its advance was blocked by a strong defense line built by the Russian side, and Western military support such as artillery shells was stagnant. The strategy is not progressing as planned.
For this reason, President Zelenskiy is strongly requesting continued support from Western countries and is working to rebuild his military, including replacing the commander-in-chief of his military.
●The Ukrainian military is poised to fight hard until the Russian army is forced to withdraw and is victorious, but it is said that there is a serious shortage not only of weapons but also of soldiers, and the difficult situation for Ukraine is expected to continue.
=Updated from time to time=
attention
The results of the attitude survey conducted jointly by NHK and a local research organization are
Two years after Russia's military invasion began, 68% of Ukrainians said that ``we should continue our fierce resistance until we regain territory,'' while 68% of people said that ``we should start peace negotiations.'' An attitude survey conducted by NHK in collaboration with Rating, a research organization based in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, revealed that the number of people who participated in the coronavirus has doubled to 24% compared to a year ago.
The survey was conducted by phone over three days from the 9th of this month to citizens aged 18 and over in all parts of Ukraine, excluding parts of the Russian-occupied eastern region and southern Crimea, and received responses from 1,000 people. .
[What did you lose because of the war?]
When asked about changes in their lives by asking them what they had lost because of the war, 34% said their health deteriorated, and 29% said they lost someone close to them, such as a family member or relative. 25% said their income decreased, 25% said they were separated from their families, and 19% said they lost their jobs.
``I lost someone close to me'' increased by 12 points from last year, indicating that the number of cases in which people close to me were killed due to prolonged fighting is increasing.
By region, the number of people who answered ``lost their jobs'' or ``separated from their families'' was higher in the eastern and southern regions, where fighting is intense.
[As for the impact on the mind and body]
Regarding the impact on the mind and body, 14% of respondents said, ``I had serious mental and physical problems and needed counseling or a doctor's examination,'' an increase of 6 points from last year. ``Sometimes I feel like it's bothering me'' increased by 3 points from last year to 37%, and more than half of the people answered that they feel unwell that interferes with their daily life.
[How do you view the war situation?]
More than half of the respondents, 54%, answered that they were "getting closer to victory" or "we are getting closer to victory step by step."
On the other hand, 30% of people answered that the situation was "stagnant."
12% of people answered that the economy is "regressing little by little" or "regressing," and a total of 42% answered that it is "stagnant" or "regressing."
Among young people between the ages of 18 and 35, 53% of respondents said they were ``stagnant'' or ``regressing,'' which is higher than the 44% who said they were ``approaching victory.''
[Reason for stagnation/regression]
When we asked those who answered "stagnation" or "regression" why, the largest number of respondents (42%) said "lack of unity and leadership in the Ukrainian government." 30% said ``lack of weapons support by the West'' and 10% said ``insufficient pressure on Russia from the international community and lack of cooperation.''
[68% said they wanted to "completely resist the war," while 24% said they
wanted a cease-fire and peace negotiations, which is twice as high as last year] When asked what they expect from the Ukrainian government in the future, they answered, "The situation will be the same as it was at the time of independence from the former Soviet Union, such as taking back Crimea. 55% said "we will continue fighting until the beginning of the military invasion" and 13% said "we will continue fighting until we return to the point in time on February 23rd, 2019, before the military invasion began", indicating that we should continue to fight to the fullest until we regain territory. In total, this amounted to 68%.
On the other hand, 24% of people said that there should be a ceasefire and peace negotiations should begin, doubling from 12% a year ago.
Looking at the people who answered this by age, those aged 51 and over increased by 6 points from last year to 18%, those aged 36 to 50 increased by 14 points to 27%, and those aged 18 to 35 increased by 20 points to 31%. %have become.
We can see that while many people believe that the war should continue, there are also voices calling for a ceasefire, especially among the younger generation.
[What is Japan's role?]
When asked what Japan can do in the international community to support Ukraine, 27% said "promote increased military assistance from the West," 26% said "reconstruction assistance," and "Russia 22% said ``strengthening sanctions against the United States,'' and 18% said ``mediating ceasefire negotiations.''
On the other hand, when asked if they were aware of the humanitarian aid Japan is providing to Ukraine, the most common response (50%) was "I have never heard of it."
However, those who said they had "heard of it" increased by 4 points from last year to 35%, and those who said they were "familiar" increased by 8 points from last year to 15%, both of which increased from last year.
Two years after the military invasion, the voices of Ukrainian citizens
18-year-old man
: ``As the war drags on, people are tired and scared. But if we surrender, the enemy will attack again. I'm ready to fight.''
18-year-old woman : ``Last year there were still bright signs
that the war would end and
that we would win. But now we have a long way to go.'' I realize it's been a very long time. Of course everyone wants the war to end, and given what we've lost so far, I think it's better to end the war. But two years later... There is no guarantee that Putin will not attack us in three years.'' ``
Many of my friends are dead, many of my relatives are on the battlefield. There's not a day that goes by that I don't think about what if my father or lover was mobilized.'' I hope that a quiet day will come.''
60-year-old man
: ``The people of Ukraine and the soldiers on the front lines are all exhausted. Also, there is a lack of support from the West, and Ukraine is in a difficult situation.'' "I think we need to negotiate and look for options instead of continuing to fight. But negotiations alone will not give Ukraine a future. We need some kind of guarantee for the future from our Western partners."
Family of deceased Ukrainian soldier: 'We must continue fighting'
The mother of a Ukrainian soldier who died in a battle with Russian forces is calling for the fight to continue so that her son's death will not be in vain.
In June of last year, Natalia Ishchenko, who lives in the capital, Kyiv, lost her only son, Astamur, who was participating in the fighting against Russia as an army soldier in eastern Ukraine.
At the entrance of the apartment complex where Astamur lived during his lifetime, a plaque commemorating Astamur has been placed at the request of the residents.
Astamur's portrait is also drawn on the plaque, and Natalia says she speaks to her son's portrait almost every day.
She said Natalia "sometimes feels like she's laughing at us, and sometimes it feels like she's criticizing something. She continues to communicate as a family." We were talking.
Natalia says that the pain of losing her precious son was ``so painful that the world was falling apart,'' but as she continues to interact with her portrait, she realizes that if her son were still alive, she would be overwhelmed with grief. I started to think that maybe he didn't want me to see him.
Natalia said that she "must not make those around her depressed or demotivated by remembering the deceased."
Two years have passed since the start of the military invasion, and many citizens in Ukraine have expressed that they are tired of fighting with no end in sight.
Although Natalia understands the calls for peace negotiations, she believes the fight must continue to ensure that her son's death is not in vain and that no more people experience the same grief. She feels that she must.
Natalia said, ``I am very tired myself. However, we must not let this fatigue become an opportunity for Russia to occupy Ukraine. We must continue to fight, not stand still in despair.'' I was there.
《In Russia》
Russian public opinion poll shows high support for President Putin, with some hoping for diplomatic solution
It has been two years since the Russian Putin administration began its military invasion of Ukraine, but Russian public opinion polls continue to show high support for President Putin, who is pushing ahead with the invasion.
According to a public opinion poll released on the 1st of this month by Russia's private polling organization Levada Center, 85% of people said they "support" President Putin's activities, while 12% said they "disapprove." continues to enjoy high support.
In addition, 71% of people said that Russia is on the right path, far exceeding the 18% who said that Russia is on the wrong path.
In addition, a survey released on the 6th of this month found that 77% of people support the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine, far exceeding the 16% who do not support them.
On the other hand, while 40% said ``military action should continue,'' 52% said ``peace negotiations should begin,'' indicating that many people in Russia prefer a diplomatic solution.
Various voices were heard from citizens in the capital Moscow, and one man, who identified himself as a teacher, said, ``The goals of the current special military operation must be achieved.Everyone wants it to end quickly, but... That's only after the goal is achieved."
A 62-year-old woman who is a mathematician also said, ``If you give up midway through, your sacrifices will be meaningless and you won't be able to accomplish anything.''I myself will contribute as much as I can by making donations. I feel that people's support is growing and we are coming together."
Meanwhile, another woman said, ``I'm fed up with everything. So many people lined up to oppose the war in the presidential election, but the candidates weren't allowed to run, and people who were in prison...'' "I was patriotic, but now I am ashamed of this country," he said, speaking to the forces opposing the military invasion. He expressed a pessimistic view, noting that the pressure on the government is increasing further.
The Levada Center has been designated a ``foreign agent,'' meaning ``foreign spies,'' by the Putin administration, and despite pressure, continues to conduct its own opinion polling activities and analysis.
Supporters of President Putin
Ivan Michaev (64), who works for a tourism company in Sochi in southern Russia, is one of them, and supports President Putin and supports the military invasion of Ukraine.
Mr. Mityaev said of President Putin, ``He is a strong leader and I am proud of him. He has brought stability and development to Russia. Everyone needs stability in Great Russia.'' The reason for his support was his trust in President Putin, who promises "stability."
He also declared that he would vote for Putin in Russia's presidential election next month.
Regarding the military invasion of Ukraine, Michaev said that his mother is from Ukraine and said, ``There are casualties on both sides, Ukraine and Russia.Of course, if it ends, the sooner the better.However. "I am a Russian, so I will support Russia until the end. Russia will not lose this war," he said, adding that while he hoped for an early ceasefire, he supported carrying out a military invasion. .
Regarding the impact of economic sanctions imposed by the West in response to the military invasion, Michaev said, ``Prices have increased to some extent. In particular, the prices of car parts made in Europe and Japan have increased.''
However, he said, ``Of course there are some difficulties, but it is possible to live and we can cope with these difficulties.''He says that the impact is tolerable and that his life has not been affected.
He also said, ``As for tourists, I feel that the number of domestic tourists to Sochi is increasing because Russians no longer go abroad.In my personal opinion, the sanctions have actually had a positive impact on the domestic economy and development.'' "I think there is a movement in Russia to counter sanctions and adapt to the economic situation under sanctions," he said.
attention
Future outlook: Expert: ``Probably going into the fourth year''
Regarding the future outlook, Associate Professor Yu Koizumi of the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo said, ``The war will continue for a long time.It is almost certain that neither side will be able to get a decisive blow in the third year, and it will drag on into the fourth year.'' He suggested that it would be extended even further.
Regarding the current war situation, Associate Professor Koizumi said that Russia is at the stage of intensifying its offensive, saying, ``It is clear that the Ukrainian army does not have the ability to carry out a large-scale offensive for the time being.Last year's reversal offensive used up a considerable amount of military strength. "On the other hand, the Russian side is unlikely to have the ability to carry out a large-scale, coordinated offensive."
He added, ``Even if the Russian side gradually expands the area under its control, it will be difficult to take decisive actions that will change the course of the war all at once.Some cities may come under the control of the Russian army. "This will not prevent Ukraine from continuing the war."
Regarding the prospect of a ceasefire, he said, ``From President Putin's perspective, the reality on the battlefield is completely unsatisfactory.If we continue the war to the point where Ukraine no longer offers organized resistance as a nation, there is a high risk that the idea of a compromise will not hold true.'' ``The Ukrainian side is at the brink of whether or not the country itself can survive, so it is difficult to agree to a ceasefire.The only way to have talks is to create a military advantageous situation,'' he said, adding that at this point, both sides are unlikely to begin negotiations toward a ceasefire. indicated that it is difficult.
Regarding the future, he says that the key is to continue military support from the United States, Ukraine's largest supporter, and says, ``If the aid to Ukraine is approved by this spring, Ukraine will go on the offensive again next year, and Russia will "There is hope that the war can be ended in about four years after regaining land and entering into cease-fire negotiations."
On the other hand, if additional support is not obtained from the United States, Ukraine will have to continue fighting with limited support from the European Union and other sources.``It is not impossible, but it will take longer than expected.'' ``It is possible that the will of the Ukrainian people to resist and the will of the surrounding countries to support will be met before that happens,'' he said, indicating that the future focus will be on the future direction of continued American support.