Ukraine's reversal offensive, which received much attention, did not yield the results it had hoped for, and on the contrary, it is now on the defensive, with its eastern bases being captured by attacks from Russia, which is willing to sacrifice soldiers.
Reversal offensive progressing less than expected
Ukraine's counteroffensive began in June last year with the aim of reclaiming occupied territory.
They began their advance in three main areas: around Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and western Zaporizhzhya Oblast in southern Oblast.
From the beginning, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles provided by Europe and the United States, such as the German-made Leopard 2 tank, were introduced.
However, the battle reached a stalemate as the Russian military built multiple layers of strong defense lines, including minefields and minefields, in the areas it controlled.
Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive has not progressed as initially expected due to a lack of shells and troops.
In December of last year, a leading American newspaper, The Washington Post, stated that the reversal offensive had failed, pointing out that the reason behind this was disagreements between the United States, the largest support country, and Ukraine over how to proceed with the operation and when to start it. Did.
Specifically, the US side advocated for military forces concentrated in the southern Zaporizhzhya Oblast to move south towards the Sea of Azov and cut off Russia's supply route, while the Ukrainian side advocated a three-pronged operation. I am.
On the other hand, since the invasion began, Russia has continued its large-scale offensive, with reportedly over 300,000 soldiers killed or injured, willing to sacrifice soldiers.
Movements that appear to be cross-border attacks on Russia stand out.
A reversal offensive that has not yielded the desired results in reclaiming territory.
On the other hand, there have been noticeable movements that appear to be cross-border attacks by drones on Russian territory.
There have been a series of drone attacks on Belgorod and Kursk regions in western Russia, which border Ukraine, as well as Crimea in southern Ukraine, which Russia unilaterally annexed.
Russia claims both attacks were carried out by Ukraine.
President Zelenskiy has stated, ``One of the challenges this year is to improve the quality of drone operations and stay ahead of the enemy,'' and it is expected that the exchange of attacks by drones will intensify in the future.
Seize bases in eastern Russia
In May of last year, Russia, which continues its invasion, announced that it had "completely taken control" of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region, where fierce fighting had been fought since the beginning of the invasion.
The G7 summit was being held in Hiroshima, with President Zelenskiy also participating.
Furthermore, this month, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian military had taken full control of Audiiivka, a stronghold in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russia has reiterated its policy of aiming to seize control of the entire Donetsk region, stating that it will "continue attacks in order to advance the liberation of Donetsk region."
Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the capture of Audiiivka was an "important victory" and said he would once again take control of the village of Klinki, a stronghold on the east bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, which the Ukrainian military claimed to have recaptured last year. He claimed that he had taken control of the country and emphasized that he was repelling a counterattack by the Ukrainian side.
Russia points out lack of coordination even within the military
There were also incidents that showed that the Russian side is not a monolith.
In June last year, Mr. Prigozhin, the representative of the Russian private military company Wagner, launched an armed rebellion amid deepening conflict with the Ministry of Defense.
Wagner's unit temporarily moved north from southern Russia, and tensions rose in the capital Moscow, where an anti-terrorist operation was declared and military armored vehicles were brought in and placed on high alert.
Mr Prigozhin died in August last year, two months after the armed revolt, when his private jet crashed.
Putin's government says a grenade exploded on board the jet, but has not provided further details.
The Wall Street Journal, a leading American newspaper, reported that the assassination was ordered by President Putin's closest aide, Secretary of the Security Council Patrushev.
It is also reported that Mr. Slovikin, who is said to have close ties to Mr. Prigozhin and served as deputy commander of the Russian army during the military invasion, was aware of plans for an armed rebellion in advance, and it has been pointed out that there is a lack of coordination within the military. A situation has arisen.
Ukraine military system reform
While reports of the failure of the reverse offensive were reported, there were also major movements in the Ukrainian military.
President Zelenskiy this month dismissed General Zarzhiny, who was popular among the people and was credited with stopping the Russian invasion.
Commander-in-Chief of the Army was appointed as the new commander-in-chief.
It has been pointed out that there is a rift between President Zelenskiy and Mr. Zarzhny over issues such as recognition of the war situation and mobilization.
The newly appointed Commander-in-Chief, Sirsky, has identified the creation of action plans for troops based on front-line needs and prompt and rational replenishment as important issues for the military, and it will be interesting to see whether the reforms will lead to a breakthrough in the war situation. It has been.
What is the future situation of the war?
Concerning the future war situation, the American think tank CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) stated that ``Ukraine has lost the military initiative it had last year,'' and that the Russian side will continue to attack the eastern Luhansk region and other areas this spring. The United States is likely to intensify its offensive toward the northern regions of Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
He points out that the key will be whether Ukraine can continue to receive military support from the West and whether it can succeed in implementing a strategy that emphasizes drones and air power.