The 24th marks two years since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
We look back on the past two years and consider the current situation and future direction.
We spoke to Taisuke Hiron, a senior researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation who specializes in Russian foreign and security policy, and newscaster Shoichiro Beppu, who has continued to report in Ukraine since the invasion.
*This is the content that was broadcast on February 21st on “Catch! World Top News”.
*The video is 16 minutes long and cannot be viewed on data broadcasting.
table of contents
War Situation The reason for the stalemate is "nuclear threat"
Interview with Ukrainian military expert Mushyenko
Reports regarding the ceasefire also indicate President Putin's aim.
What to focus on in the future
Open table of contents
table of contents
table of contents
War Situation The reason for the stalemate is "nuclear threat"
Interview with Ukrainian military expert Mushyenko
Reports regarding the ceasefire also indicate President Putin's aim.
What to focus on in the future
Looking back on the two years since the invasion of Ukraine
I look back on the past two years.
▽On February 24th, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
In March, Russian atrocities were discovered in Bucha, a suburb of the capital, Kiiv.
In September, the Ukrainian military successfully carried out a surprise offensive in the eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
▽Then, in June last year, the Ukrainian army launched a large-scale counteroffensive, but
in November, then-Commander-in-Chief Zarzhiny pointed out that ``the war situation was at a stalemate.''
It has also been pointed out that the West is becoming fatigued with aid, and the budget for aid to Ukraine remains at a deadlock in the U.S. Congress.
This month, General Zarzhini was dismissed and forced to withdraw from the strategic eastern stronghold of Audi Iuka.
War Situation The reason for the stalemate is "nuclear threat"
It has been two years since Russia's invasion, and many people have died in Ukraine.
How do you look back on the two-year invasion?
Taisuke Hiruzen, Senior Researcher, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
Currently, the war situation is basically at a stalemate, and one of the biggest reasons is that Russia's "nuclear threat" is effective.
President Putin has been keeping the West in check with his comments regarding nuclear weapons since the beginning of the invasion.
The United States is wary of excessive escalation, and Western military support is lagging behind.
Looking back now, what was especially significant was the strong defensive line that Russia built in southern Ukraine starting in the fall of 2022.
The Ukrainians wanted to retake the south before the defensive line was drawn, but they were not provided with sufficient equipment at the time.
As a result, it was only after the defense line had been built that it was decided to provide tanks and other equipment.
The biggest reason why Western military assistance is always delayed is de-escalation.
It can be said that President Putin's "nuclear threat" is working.
Shoichiro Beppu Caster:
The longer the military invasion lasts, even for just one day, the more civilian casualties and infrastructure will be destroyed.
I still have an app on my phone that alerts me to air raid alerts for Ukraine.
When an air raid warning is issued, an alarm will sound and states at risk of being hit by missiles will be displayed in red.
Over the past two years, I don't think there has been a day when the app hasn't worked.
In other words, the people of Ukraine have been under constant fear of air raids for the past two years since the invasion began.
Changes in the war situation as the Ukrainian army stalls after reversal offensive
The Ukrainian military dismissed General Zarzhiny as the reversal offensive stalled, and also decided to withdraw from eastern Audiiivka.
Ukraine appears to be in a very difficult position.
If Beppu Shoichiro Caster's
first year was a reversal and an offensive, the current situation is that they are forced to go on the defensive, with about 20% of the country still taken away.
In the east, Russian forces are gradually expanding their control over areas such as Audiiivka.
On the 20th, we spoke to Mr. Mushenko, an expert on military issues in Ukraine, about this situation.
Interview with Ukrainian military expert Mushyenko
Q. How do you view the changes in the war situation?
Unfortunately, much remains to be done to liberate occupied lands in southern Ukraine and Crimea.
In the east, it is necessary to stop Russian aggression, and we are on the defensive.
Q. Can the eastern defense line be defended?
The eastern front does not have enough weapons and cannon shells.
We are waiting for Europe to supply us with more mortars, artillery shells, ammunition and other essentials.
If this battle is a war of attrition, it is important to do everything possible to stop and damage Russia.
We need to stop and exhaust Russia.
Q. How do you analyze domestic public opinion in Ukraine?
The war is dragging on and I'm a little disappointed.
It's been a long war, so the front line in particular seems to be exhausted.
Although there are problems in terms of economy and livelihood, we must continue to endure in order to stop Russian attacks.
Because Russia is also trying to break our will.
I have often interviewed Beppu Shoichiro Caster
Musiyenko in the field, including after the reversal offensive in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022, but in this interview, he said that rather than reversing the offensive, he first focused on preventing further attacks. He emphasized that there is an urgent need to do so.
In that sense, I felt a change over the past two years.
The impact of prolonged fighting on Russia is
Two years have passed since the invasion began, and strong economic sanctions continue to be imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe.
Mr. Musiyenko pointed out that public opinion in Ukraine has become a little discouraged due to the prolonged fighting, but how much of an impact has the situation of being at war for two years had on Russia?
Taisuke Hiruzen, Senior Researcher, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
I visited Moscow last October, but I didn't feel any shadow of war there.
I think the transition to a wartime economy is progressing and we are adapting to the immediate situation.
On the military front, production of weapons and ammunition has been achieved to a certain extent.
Furthermore, weapons have started coming in from North Korea and Iran.
A wartime economic system will inevitably have side effects in the long run.
However, I believe that Russia will be able to manage a two to three year war.
The focus now is whether the West can go beyond that and help Ukraine.
Reports regarding the ceasefire also indicate President Putin's aim.
As the military invasion continues to drag on, reports regarding a ceasefire are also emerging.
Reuters reported that ``President Putin told the American side last year that he was willing to consider a ceasefire through an intermediary country.''
Furthermore, in an interview with a former American broadcaster close to Trump, he said, ``If you want to stop the fighting, you should stop giving them weapons. Then it will be over in a few weeks.''
Taisuke Hiruzen, Senior Researcher, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
President Putin's aim is to make a direct deal with the United States.
President Putin believes that this war is being waged by the West to weaken Russia, and that if the West stops supporting Russia, the war will end quickly.
This theory is strange in the first place, but with the war situation tilting in Russia's favor, Russia has begun to actively send signals to the West and the United States in an attempt to get them to give up their support.
However, I believe that there is room for a ceasefire scenario to emerge because we continue to put military pressure on Russia.
If Western support ceases, Russia will continue to expand its occupied territory.
Since a certain balance can be achieved through pressure from military support, Russia will be forced to consider a ceasefire at some point.
There is some debate over whether to choose a ceasefire or support, but discussions about a ceasefire and continued support are not inherently contradictory.
Shoichiro Beppu Caster
Needless to say, it was Mr. Putin who started the invasion, and it is Mr. Putin who continues it.
A United Nations spokesperson has also declared, ``If Putin stops the invasion, this war will end.''
Regarding an immediate ceasefire, President Zelenskiy asked, ``If there is a ceasefire, that is, if Ukraine stops resisting, will that really lead to peace?''
There is no guarantee that Putin will stop the invasion, and there are concerns that human rights violations in the occupied territories will continue.
Furthermore, even if they stop attacking once, there is a risk that they will attack again after a while.
For example, consider crime.
It is completely strange to tell people who are currently being harmed to "don't resist" or "to be patient."
After all, it is important to appeal to the attackers to stop, and it is necessary to create a situation in which Mr. Putin will hesitate to continue the attacks any further.
It's sanctions, diplomacy, and deterrence.
Ultimately, this is about international solidarity with Ukraine, and further efforts are required from the international community.
What to focus on in the future
"US Presidential Election"
Taisuke Hiruzen, Senior Researcher, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
This election will have a major impact on future support for Ukraine.
Amid the negotiations surrounding the presidential election, legislation to support Ukraine has been stalled, and the impact is already beginning to be felt.
However, there may be a huge cliff ahead called Trump.
As President Putin, he will face the United States while considering the tug-of-war with the current Biden administration and the huge cliff that lies ahead.
"Don't set a bad precedent"
Shoichiro Beppu Caster:
If the invaded Russia were to win and seize territory, it would set a bad precedent for the world, saying, ``If you threaten with nuclear weapons and use force, you can seize territory.''
In East Asia, although Chinese President Xi Jinping pursues the peaceful unification of Taiwan, he is willing to use force, and this should not be someone else's problem.
Since World War II, the United Nations Charter has ``prohibited the use and threat of force,'' albeit with some problems.
This is because they have experienced the ravages of war.
I think it's time to put that lesson to good use.