2nd year of invasion: Ukraine reverse offensive, unable to achieve results and going on the defensive

February 24th marks two years since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine's reversal offensive, which received much attention, did not yield the results it had hoped for, and on the contrary, it is now on the defensive, with its eastern bases being captured by attacks from Russia, which is willing to sacrifice its soldiers.

Ukraine reverse offensive progress is not progressing

Ukraine began a reversal offensive in June of last year, aiming to regain territory.

Newly donated tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from Europe and America, such as the German-made Leopard 2 and the British-made Challenger 2, have been deployed to continue fighting in southern Zaporizhzhya Oblast and eastern Donetsk Oblast. , we recaptured Robotine.

However, the battle ended in a stalemate as they were unable to break through the defensive line constructed by the Russian army, which was a combination of minefields and minefields.

Since October last year, the Ukrainian stronghold of Audiiivka in eastern Donetsk Oblast and its surrounding areas have been under heavy attack by the Russian military.

In an interview with the Associated Press in November last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, ``We wanted to get results quickly, but unfortunately we did not get the results we wanted.''

On February 8, President Zelenskiy will fire General Zarzhiny, the popular military commander, citing the need for change.

A new commander-in-chief, Sirsky, was appointed, but on February 17th he announced the withdrawal from Audi Iuka.

In an interview with NHK on February 19, Prime Minister Schmihali cited the lack of military support from the West and a shortage of ammunition and long-range missiles as one of the reasons why the counteroffensive did not proceed as planned. .

Regarding the battle at Audi Ivka, from which he withdrew, he pointed out, ``Unfortunately, the Russian army now has air superiority on the battlefield,'' and said, ``The Russian army is doing 10 times more artillery than Ukraine,'' and said that they were at a disadvantage. It was recognized that this was the case.

On the other hand, he emphasized, ``I think we can achieve very important results this year. That doesn't mean we need to go on the offensive.''

The aim is to strengthen the defense of the territory that has been recaptured so far and use new technologies such as drones to help break the war situation.

In fact, in the Black Sea, where there is an export route for grain and other goods, unmanned boats and other vehicles damaged Russian military vessels one after another, and it is said that they were able to eliminate the military threat.

With some pointing out that Ukraine is in a "war of attrition" with the Russian military, the focus is now on how the Ukrainian military will respond to the harsh war situation.

More than 10,000 Ukrainian civilian casualties “unaccounted for”

By the end of January, at least 10,378 civilians had been killed in Ukraine since the start of Russia's military invasion, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Of these, 579 were children under the age of 18.

In addition, the number of injured people is estimated to be 19,632.

On the other hand, in areas where fierce fighting has taken place or is still ongoing, such as Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast and Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, the exact state of the damage is not known, and the actual number of casualties is This indicates that the number of participants exceeds the number announced.

In addition, there have been a number of attacks on medical institutions that have been cited as violating international humanitarian law, with 59 facilities destroyed and 401 damaged, as well as 236 education-related facilities destroyed and 813 facilities damaged. It means that you are receiving.

“Smart shelter” in the basement of a university in Kiv, the capital

In Ukraine, as Russian attacks have continued for two years, there is a movement to create spaces in the basements of facilities where citizens can not only temporarily evacuate but also stay.

In January, at the National Institute of Technology Kyiv in the capital Kyiv, an evacuation site called ``Smart Shelter'' was constructed in the basement stacks of the library with support from private companies and others.

Normally, it is used as a study space for students, but when an air raid warning is issued, the 600 square meter underground space becomes a shelter that can accommodate up to 500 people.

In addition to drinking water, the shelter has toilets, showers, and beds, so you can stay there for three days.

We also have high-speed internet and private rooms where you can hold classes and hold online meetings.

When I interviewed the university in mid-February, about 100 students and faculty members had evacuated one after another after an air raid warning was issued, and classes and meetings had resumed.

One of the students said, ``Knowledge is our greatest strength and we never stop learning. Continuing to learn is my own fight against invasion.''

Vice-Rector Oleksiy Zuchenko added: ``Our universities are the center of scientific and technological education in Ukraine, and some of our students are directly involved in the development of new weapons and technologies for national defense. "Almost two years have passed since the invasion began, but for students to continue learning science and technology here is the university's way of resisting the Russian invaders."

Will military losses continue to increase in both Ukraine and Russia?

Both Ukraine and Russia have made little official disclosure about their military losses, but they appear to continue to increase as the fighting drags on.

[Ukraine's Troop Losses]

Last August, the New York Times, a leading American newspaper, reported, citing American officials, that the number of Ukrainian casualties was approximately 70,000, and the number of injured was approximately 100,000 to 120,000. I did.

In addition, on February 20, the New York Times reported that 850 to 1,000 soldiers had been captured by the Russian side or their whereabouts are unknown, regarding the eastern region of Audiiivka, where the Ukrainian army had withdrawn. "This could have a negative impact on morale."

Amidst a shortage of troops, the Ukrainian military is reportedly facing a tough battle mainly on the eastern front, where Russian attacks continue.

According to an article in the Washington Post, a leading American newspaper, dated February 8, the commander of a battalion commanding the eastern front said that there were fewer than 40 infantrymen compared to the usual 200. Another battalion commander said they were fighting with about 35% of their original strength.

The military is calling for the mobilization of 500,000 people, but there are critical voices within Japan, and ``draft evasion'' has become a social issue.

[Russian Troop Losses]

In December of last year, multiple Western media reported that a report compiled by the American intelligence agency stated that Russian military casualties amounted to 315,000.

The Russian army had approximately 360,000 soldiers before the invasion, and compared to this, the casualty rate was 87%.

In addition, the British Ministry of Defense analyzed that the total number of casualties of the Russian military and private military company Wagner from the start of the invasion to November last year was approximately 70,000 killed and 220,000 to 280,000 injured. I am.

Amidst reports of great sacrifices, the Putin administration decided to mobilize 300,000 reserve personnel in September of last year, and has since been recruiting contract soldiers to fill the ranks, offering high compensation. Masu.

While avoiding large-scale mobilization for fear of a backlash from the public, they prioritized recruitment of foreigners, prisoners, ethnic minorities within Russia, and Ukrainians living in eastern and southern Ukraine occupied by Russia. It has been pointed out that they are making up for the shortage of soldiers.

Ukrainian military faces serious shortage of shells due to delayed support

How much military strength did both sides lose during the two-year long battle?

On February 12, the British think tank IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) called the losses of the Ukrainian military "uncertain" and said that the number of main battle tanks in service with the Ukrainian military remains at the same level as before the invasion. The view is that it is maintained.

However, the American economic magazine Forbes said that this analysis "has some pitfalls," and while it appears that Ukraine has about 1,000 main battle tanks, which is about the same level as before the invasion, most of them are Abrams and other tanks. It points out that tanks supported by the West are occupying the area.

Although the Ukrainian military has suffered heavy losses, it has maintained its military strength with support from Western countries.

[Russian weapons losses]

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released on February 13th, in its annual report “Military Balance” that analyzes the military forces and regional situations of countries around the world, He pointed out that they lost more than 2,900 vehicles, almost the same as they had in the previous year.

On the other hand, Russia is believed to be reusing at least 1,000 old tanks and other vehicles, and is also manufacturing new tanks and armored vehicles, so it is believed that it will be able to maintain its military strength for the next three years. .

Regarding Russia's weapons production, the British Ministry of Defense pointed out in January that it has the potential to manufacture more than 100 main battle tanks per month, making up for losses on the battlefield.

In addition, on February 14, the American think tank CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) pointed out Russia's move to strengthen relations with friendly countries, stating that China has received orders for military helicopter navigation equipment, fighter jet parts, and weapons systems. It is said that semiconductors and other materials have been donated.

Furthermore, Iran has built a manufacturing base for unmanned aircraft on Russian territory, and North Korea has provided ammunition, indicating that Russia has the ability to continue fighting for a long period of time.

[Difference in the number of shells between Ukraine and Russia]

On the other hand, it is reported that the Ukrainian military is suffering from a serious shortage of shells on the eastern front and other front lines, and delays in support from Europe and the United States have been cited as a contributing factor.

According to an analysis by RUSI (UK Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies) reported in January by the Wall Street Journal, a leading American newspaper, the number of shells used per day has increased since last year, after Ukraine began its counteroffensive. In the summer of 2007, Ukraine had 7,000 shots and Russia 5,000, but recently Ukraine's number has dropped to 2,000, less than one-third, while Russia has doubled to 10,000. Masu.

The EU had set a goal of providing 1 million shells to Ukraine by March this year, but it is predicted that it will only be able to provide about half, about 520,000 shells.

In a February 9th article in the British financial newspaper Financial Times, Ukraine's Defense Minister Umerov wrote in a letter to EU High Representative Borrell that the Ukrainian military needs a minimum of 6,000 shells a day. However, the report claims that only 2,000 shells have been used, and the Ukrainian military is reporting a severe situation in which they are suffering from a shortage of shells.

Russia maintains military strength while using contract soldiers

Russia, which continues to fight in a way that is said to be willing to sacrifice soldiers, maintains its military strength by using not only regular soldiers but also contract soldiers who join the army with high pay.

In February, a senior US Department of Defense official estimated that 315,000 people had been killed or injured on the Russian side since the invasion began.

As the number of casualties continues to rise, Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu announced in December last year that the number of contracted military personnel would be increased to 745,000 by 2024.

Contract soldiers are paid monthly in excess of 300,000 yen, which is several times the average monthly salary in Russia, and signboards recruiting soldiers are posted all over the country with the amount of compensation. .

A former soldier who became a contract soldier and participated in the fighting in Ukraine responded to an interview with NHK.

The man, who is in his 30s, wanted to contribute to his country and became a contract soldier shortly after the invasion began, and participated in the fighting in eastern Ukraine for nearly a year until he was injured and discharged.

He says that there was no established high compensation system immediately after he joined the military, but he has received it since then.

The former soldier said, ``The Ministry of Defense understands that people have financial problems and is providing this kind of support. It's a great policy, because it helps families with financial stability and security.'' I can't let my children eat grass,'' he said, revealing that the high pay is a motivating factor for many to join the military.

On the other hand, soldiers may have to provide military uniforms, socks, radio equipment, and other necessary items on the battlefield at their own expense.

A former soldier said, ``Radios are only provided to unit commanders.That's why I bought a radio so that there would be no communication problems on the battlefield.I need it to accomplish my mission and increase my chances of returning home safely.'' ” and so on.

In September 2022, six months after the invasion, the Putin administration decided to mobilize 300,000 reservists, but there was widespread anxiety and opposition among the people, and the government subsequently began recruiting contract soldiers with high salaries. We have secured troops.

At a press conference held in December last year, President Putin emphasized that there would be no additional mobilization that would impose a burden on the people, citing the large number of contracted military personnel gathered there.

Russia in “war” with Western countries, may also use North Korean weapons and ammunition

Russia's Putin administration continues its military invasion of Ukraine, calling it a ``war'' with the West, which is increasing its support for Ukraine, and urges the people to unite and is poised to continue its military invasion.

In a speech last May, President Putin said, ``A real war is being waged again against our homeland,'' regarding the military invasion of Ukraine, which he called a ``special military operation,'' which was initiated by the West. They claim that it is a "war" and justify it.

In order to capture Ukrainian strongholds, the Russian side has continued to carry out attacks that are willing to sacrifice soldiers by intensively injecting troops and weapons, and in May last year, the fiercely fought Bakhmut area in the eastern Donetsk region was attacked, and in February On the 17th, they announced that they had taken control of Audi Ivka in Donetsk region.

In the future, it is expected that they will use these bases as footholds to intensify their attacks, aiming to take control of the entire Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, in response to the Ukrainian military's reverse offensive that began in June last year, we have strengthened our defense lines multiple times by building minefields and minefields in an effort to block the advance and maintain control of the area.

Last month, President Putin said, ``It is clear that not only has their reverse offensive failed, but that the Russian military has complete control,'' emphasizing that they are gaining the upper hand in the battle, according to an American think tank. The Institute for the Study of War also stated in its analysis on February 2nd that the Russian military has once again taken the initiative in many areas.

It has been pointed out that the reason why the Russian military is increasing its attacks is that it is supplementing the large amount of weapons and ammunition it consumes with supplies from North Korea and Iran.

Of these, the US White House has revealed that North Korea is believed to have provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military supplies such as ammunition around September last year.

Ukraine's public prosecutor's office examined fragments of missiles fired toward the capital, Kiev, and the eastern region from the end of December last year to February 7 this year, and found that at least 24 missiles appeared to have been made by North Korea. I showed it.

In an interview with the British economic newspaper Financial Times last month, Budanov, head of the Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, pointed out that ``North Korea has become Russia's largest arms supplier.''

Wives of soldiers mobilized by the Russian army protest

In Russia, where it is forbidden to publicly criticize the military invasion of Ukraine, the wives of soldiers mobilized by the Russian military are raising their voices in protest.

Every Saturday, the wives of soldiers campaign for the early return of mobilized soldiers by placing flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, a memorial site for those killed in World War II, located in the center of the capital Moscow. I am.

Maria Andreeva, one of the representatives of the women's group, was mobilized in October of last year, when her husband, a masseuse, was mobilized.

Her daughter was only one year old at the time.

Her husband reportedly left for the battlefield, saying, ``The conscription office told us that the mobilization would be for six months at most,'' but she has not returned.

Andreeva, who laid flowers for her on that day, said, ``I think her husbands have already fulfilled their duty. It's time for the government to recognize that.''

In September 2022, President Putin announced the mobilization of reserve forces and decided to mobilize 300,000 people, but there is no concrete explanation as to when the mobilized soldiers will be able to return home.

The women, whose families were mobilized, including Andreeva, connected through the Internet and began activities in August 2023 as a group called ``Puch Damoi'', or ``The Road to My Home'' in Japanese.

However, when they asked members of the ruling party and local governors for their husbands to return, they were told that nothing could be done, and when they tried to hold a rally, authorities refused to give them permission due to coronavirus countermeasures and other reasons.

For Andreeva and others, the legal way to protest was to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Furthermore, Andreeva and her colleagues visited the campaign headquarters of President Putin, who is running for president in next month's presidential election, and asked him to sign a demobilization decree.

However, the authorities became nervous about Andreeva and her group's activities, and domestic and international media outlets covering the February 3rd activity of laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Reporters and others were detained.

Andreeva said of her determination to continue her activities, saying, ``Honestly, I'm scared,'' but she also said, ``It's scarier to realize that I didn't do anything.'' .

"Puch Damoy" representative: "It's scary, but I will continue my activities"

Approximately 72,000 people have registered on Puig Damoy's SNS, and their activities have been attracting attention, with Western media covering them one after another.

According to Maria Andreeva, the group's representative, some members support the government's policies and the cause of the military invasion, but the group's goal is to bring her husband back safely from the battlefield. is.

Regarding the movement to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, Andreeva said in an interview, ``Maybe we are expected to raise louder slogans, but if we do that, we will be put in prison.'' "We will be unable to do anything," he said, adding that he is trying to find an effective way to carry out his activities as the government tightens its grip on him.

She added that she is "honestly scared, but I'm even more scared that later on my daughter will ask me, 'What did you do at that time?'" and continue her work. talking about her determination.

Andreeva said, ``I consider myself a patriot, but now military patriotism is being forced upon us in this country. We ordinary people must love our country so much that we must be willing to die for it.'' "We have to do this," he said, criticizing the government's response for imposing a huge burden on citizens.

A man who fled the country from convocation

After Russia's Putin administration, which continues to invade Ukraine, decided to mobilize reserve forces in September of last year, many people fled the country to avoid being called up.

One of them is a 25-year-old man from Moscow who now lives in neighboring Georgia.

The man fled to Georgia with his friends a week after the mobilization announcement and continues to live and work remotely for an advertising agency in Russia.

Regarding the reason he left Russia, the man said, ``I became very worried that the government would send me to war and make me do things that I thought were wrong and not in line with my sexuality.''

More than a year has passed since then, and so far there are no prospects for him to return to Russia, and the man says he never expected his life in Georgia to last this long.

However, the man says, ``I have heard from friends in Moscow that there is more anxiety among the people, so I think he made the right choice to leave the country.''

Given the deep-seated concerns and dissatisfaction among the public regarding the mobilization, the Putin administration has indicated a policy of supplementing the military with contract soldiers who promise high pay, and has emphasized that it will not mobilize any additional troops.

Regarding this, the man said, ``I can't believe what they say. In fact, it's all kept secret and we don't know how many people have died in this war. No one is telling the truth.'' expressed strong distrust.

He then spoke of his hope for the future, saying, ``I hope that the war will end soon, and that Japan will become a country where people can take responsibility for their actions and live in peace and freedom.''