The deconfinement would cause a new epidemic wave if a system of massive tests and isolation of infected people were not put in place, according to a study carried out in particular by Inserm. She also suggests that he could not intervene before the end of May or during June.
"The lifting of confinement without an exit strategy would lead to a second wave largely crushing the health system", according to the study's summary, posted online on Sunday and revealed on Monday by Le Monde.
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"The tracing and massive screening of contact cases to isolate them quickly are necessary" to consider strategies of progressive deconfinement "while keeping the schools closed and the elderly isolated", according to this work carried out jointly by the National Institute of health and medical research, the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health and Sorbonne University Medicine.
The study envisages deconfinement "from May or June"
The study assesses the effect in Ile-de-France of the containment implemented on March 17 at the national level and models the effectiveness of different possible exit strategies "from May or June" suggesting that it is not necessary not expect a containment lift before. "Intensive forms of social distancing will be necessary in the coming months due to the fairly low immunity of the population", according to the study which estimated the percentage of the population infected on April 5 at between 1% and 6%.
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President Emmanuel Macron is due to rule on Monday evening on the French strategy against the pandemic and the extension of the containment established on March 17.