As for the future of the Russian economy, conflicting statements are coming from the country's leadership.

President Vladimir Putin is trying to downplay the consequences of the unprecedentedly tough economic sanctions over Russia's attack on Ukraine.

In mid-April, he announced that the West's "blitzkrieg" sanctions had not worked, and that the financial system and industry were working stably, effectively and "rhythmically".

Catherine Wagner

Business correspondent for Russia and the CIS based in Moscow.

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On the other hand, the central bank is making forecasts that sound a lot bleaker - and more realistic.

The governor of the central bank, Elwira Nabiullina, warns of a long-term loss of productivity and a severe recession with a drop in economic output of 8 to 10 percent this year.

A recent report by the central bank states that mechanical engineering and the electronics industry in particular could be “paralyzed” by the failure of even a few foreign components.

And the analysts believe that the negative consequences of the departure of Western companies could even exceed the effects of the sanctions.

medication shortage possible

The economic data so far show hardly any concrete consequences of the punitive measures.

However, many indicators are no longer available at all: import and export data have not been published since February, and the development of oil and gas production is also kept secret because of the war.

Banks and companies also no longer have to publish business figures.

According to the central bank, the fact that the remaining data up to March does not yet show a violent crash is due to the spare parts still available in most companies.

If these run out, this could have dramatic consequences in individual sectors, for example in the production of medicines.

About 80 percent of the components used in Russia are imported, with the vast majority coming from India and China before the war.

Although medicines are not subject to sanctions, according to Russian manufacturers, European partner companies no longer supply raw materials for medicines.

But partners from India and China are also securing themselves, demanding payment in advance, and prices have risen significantly, partly because of logistical problems.

Income will go down

At the end of the second quarter, changes on the labor market are also likely to make themselves felt.

In March, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, the same as in February - because the plants that have stopped or shut down work for the time being, either for political reasons or due to a lack of components, are still paying their employees wages.

That should end in June or July.

However, experts expect that many companies will, as in previous crises, cut their employees' salaries rather than lay them off.

This is usually subsidized by the state in order to beautify the statistics: the changes should therefore not be officially visible;

but many Russians will earn much less than before.