China News Service, February 24 (Wei Chenxi and Zhang Naiyue) Two years have passed. Behind the Ukraine crisis, an unprecedented global geopolitical game between Russia and the United States and the West is still continuing. What impact has it had on the world?
At the same time, the United States and the West are trying to use this crisis to fight a protracted "hybrid war" to bring down the Russian economy... Can such a plot be realized?
What problems have been raised?
In response to a series of issues, China News Network specially invited Ding Xiaoxing, director of the Eurasian Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Liu Ying, director and researcher of the Cooperative Research Department of the Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and Chen Yurong, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, to conduct in-depth discussions. Interpretation.
Data map: Streets of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
“A situation worse than the Cold War has emerged”
At present, we are experiencing profound changes unseen in a century.
In this changing situation, how has the Ukrainian crisis, which continues to ferment and triggers global shocks, comprehensively and three-dimensionally affected the direction of the world's geopolitical and economic patterns?
First, this crisis has "cut" Europe itself.
Under the influence of the Ukraine crisis, a situation worse than the "Cold War" has emerged in Europe.
Ding Xiaoxing explained that Russia and Europe have begun to fully decouple, not only the energy relationship has broken down, but international exchanges and personnel exchanges have also been affected.
Chen Yurong said that the EU has accelerated the pace of absorbing some CIS countries to "join the EU", and some CIS countries are going further and further on the road of "joining the Treaty" and "distancing themselves from Russia and embracing Spain".
Secondly, taking advantage of the influence of the Ukraine crisis, the United States began to engage in alliance politics in an attempt to tear the world apart.
Chen Yurong pointed out that the United States adheres to the "zero-sum game" strategy and continues to make efforts to compete in the CIS to "contain Russia" and "weaken Russia" in all aspects.
Data map: NATO logo.
She believes that on the one hand, the United States has not only divided the relationship between Russia and its traditional allies, but has continued to "extort" Central Asian countries and "engage in internal strife and create small circles." On the other hand, the United States has also forced its allies to choose sides and intensified its antagonism. Russia's comprehensive sanctions and "decoupling and breaking of links" have not only had a negative impact on the world economy, but also led to confrontation between Russia and the West.
Under this circumstance, NATO has achieved a new round of expansion, Finland has officially "joined" the Treaty, Sweden will also become its 32nd member state, and the European security landscape has undergone fundamental changes.
She pointed out that, in fact, a new round of NATO's eastward expansion has become a fait accompli.
At the same time, Russia has taken various measures to weaken its aid to Ukraine, such as suspending the Black Sea grain export agreement, to comprehensively counter the strategic containment of the United States and the West.
In addition, the Ukraine crisis has added instability to the world and brought many potential conflicts.
Chen Yurong said, "We are in the midst of a century of changes. What the Ukraine crisis has brought about is more uncertainty and instability in world peace and regional security."
She believes that the two-year delay in the Ukraine crisis will bring obvious harm to the world security pattern.
Like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there are also some "minor conflicts" occurring in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions, all of which occurred against the "big background" of the ongoing military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
Data map: Israeli tanks in the Gaza Strip.
Regarding the impact of this crisis, Ding Xiaoxing believes that since the Ukraine crisis two years ago, the world is currently in a transition period between the old and new patterns, with more countries becoming more aware of their independence and the process of multipolarization accelerating.
“The conspiracy of the United States and the West has gone bankrupt”
After the end of the Cold War, the United States promoted NATO's continuous eastward expansion, squeezing Russia's strategic living space, and ultimately triggered the Ukraine crisis.
Over the past two years, the United States, the West, and Russia have been engaged in a fierce contest outside the battlefield.
Many experts pointed out that the Ukraine crisis has become a battlefield between the United States, the West and Russia. Under the huge sunk costs, it is difficult for both sides to withdraw easily.
The United States and the West are trying to use this crisis to fight a protracted "hybrid war" to bring down the Russian economy.
However, this plan has gone bankrupt.
On the one hand, Western countries are gradually showing weakness in aiding Ukraine. It is still unknown whether this "hybrid war" can be sustained.
Ding Xiaoxing said that "some problems have arisen in the West's military aid to Ukraine, and the main problem lies in the United States."
In the context of the 2024 U.S. election, the two parties in the United States have different views on aid to Ukraine and are restricting each other, resulting in the delay in passing the aid bill to Ukraine.
Liu Ying further pointed out that Western military aid is the core and decisive force that determines whether this crisis will continue.
The West is fighting a "proxy war" and without Western support, the crisis may end quickly.
Data map: In February 2022 local time, U.S. aircraft transported military aid supplies to Boryspil International Airport in Kiev, Ukraine.
She added that in addition to the disputes between the two parties in the United States, there are two reasons for the gradual weakening of Western military aid to Ukraine: First, Europe has not seen hope of victory in Ukraine for two years, and its own economy, energy, and armaments are However, it is being damaged in many aspects; secondly, the West is "full of ambition but not strong enough", and its financial and military power are not enough to continue to provide support to Ukraine.
However, Liu Ying pointed out that the EU will not stop arming Ukraine until Russia and Ukraine achieve a ceasefire, because aiding Ukraine has long become a "political statement" rather than a tactical or strategic game.
She believes that Europe will continue to be weak in aiding Ukraine and will no longer increase its efforts.
On the other hand, Russia's economic resilience far exceeds the imagination of the West. It has not been dragged down by massive Western sanctions, and its GDP has even achieved growth beyond expectations.
However, the backlash effect of sanctions on the West has begun to appear.
First of all, European countries' own economic interests have been harmed in the process of imposing sanctions on Russia.
Ding Xiaoxing believes that after the Ukraine crisis broke out, Europe had to "cut off" from Russia, which put Europe in a difficult situation.
The Russian-European energy relationship has broken down, and Europe has to purchase energy, oil, and natural gas from the world at higher prices, causing European economic costs to rise and economic competitiveness to decline.
Chen Yurong pointed out that especially in the winter from 2022 to 2023, due to the increase in production costs of companies that ensure a warm winter, the lives of the people at the bottom of Europe have been greatly affected.
Second, sanctions undermine Europe’s political landscape and regional security.
Liu Ying pointed out that in terms of diplomacy, the "political correctness" of aid to Ukraine has caused European countries to lose their political independence to a certain extent; in terms of security, aid to Ukraine has objectively increased Europe's defense investment, resulting in a reduction in the number of artillery shells and weapons in the region. It is difficult to deal with another security threat.
In addition, in Europe, there are three kinds of negative emotions spreading.
First, tension.
Chen Yurong pointed out that since 2023, Ukraine and Europe have been at odds with each other over the issue of food transit, causing tensions in relations. Some European countries have even wavered in their military aid stance to Kyiv because of this.
File photo: A dump truck unloads grain in a Ukrainian granary.
Second, anti-war.
Liu Ying pointed out that the Ukrainian crisis superimposed on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict "has further impacted the already bad geopolitical environment. The European refugee crisis continues to worsen, and public anti-war sentiment continues to rise."
Third, worry.
Ding Xiaoxing also said that after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Europe's economic and military dependence on the United States has increased.
However, as an "ally", the United States once abandoned Afghanistan, and now it has shelved aid to Ukraine because of party disputes, which is "very unreliable."
In addition, 2024 is an election year, unpredictable factors are increasing, and Europe's worries about the United States are also increasing.
"Peace talks are the only way out"
In the past two years, the international community has continued to call for a ceasefire and an end to the war.
In the summer of 2023, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, representatives from many countries, including China, attended the international conference on Ukraine and conducted extensive exchanges.
In the same year, many African leaders formed a peace mission and went to Russia and Ukraine to persuade peace.
Experts pointed out that China is suitable and willing to play an active role in the Ukraine crisis and has taken many actions.
Liu Ying analyzed that China is the major country with the highest level of strategic mutual trust with Russia, and it can carry out certain coordination with Russia and Ukraine.
At the same time, as a responsible big country, China also has influence in developing countries and is a trusted country.
On the Ukrainian issue, China emphasizes that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter should be observed, the reasonable security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously, and all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the crisis should be supported.
On the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, China released the document "China's Position on the Political Resolution of the Ukraine Crisis", which directly faced external doubts and more comprehensively and systematically explained China's position on the Ukraine crisis.
Recently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out at the 60th Munich Security Conference that China was neither the creator nor a party to the Ukraine crisis.
China did not sit back and watch, let alone take advantage of the opportunity to make profits.
"Peace talks are the only way to resolve the Ukrainian issue and get out of the current predicament." Chen Yurong pointed out, "China has not added fuel to the fire like the United States and the West, but has always firmly supported an end to the war and ceasefire and will not give up its efforts to promote peace and talks. We 2023 In 2016, China sent Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui to many countries, including Russia and Ukraine, to explain China’s position and communicate with each other in the hope that all parties can sit down and resolve the crisis through negotiations.”
"Human beings live in the same homeland, and all prosper and lose. Losing more is not a rational choice. Win-win is the future of mankind." Wang Yi said at this year's Munich Security Conference.
(over)