Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 1 (Dong Wenbo) "Significant differentiation" and "hot before cold", this is the industry's generalization of the property market in 2021.
How will the real estate market perform in the new year?
How do experts and institutions predict?
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Official tone
For the real estate market in the new year, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have clearly determined the adjustment.
The 2022 Central Bank Work Conference held a few days ago pointed out that the central bank system must comprehensively deepen financial reform and opening up, insist on innovation-driven development, and promote high-quality development.
Among them, it is proposed to persist in promoting the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and to properly implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Prior to the meeting, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Financial Services for M&A of Key Real Estate Enterprise Risk Disposal Projects" to encourage banks to conduct M&A loan business in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality real estate companies' mergers and acquisitions risks and difficulties Quality projects of the largest real estate companies.
Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the Central Bank, pointed out that project mergers and acquisitions between real estate companies are the most effective market-based means for the industry to resolve risks and achieve liquidation.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Wang Menghui said in an interview that the fundamentals of the real estate market have not changed, and housing demand remains strong.
We will resolutely implement the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, firmly adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", and will not use real estate as a short-term economic stimulus tool and means, strengthen expected guidance, and implement policies to promote the real estate industry in accordance with the city A virtuous circle and healthy development.
Wang Menghui mentioned that the first is to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies; the second is to enhance the coordination and accuracy of regulatory policies; the third is to resolutely and effectively deal with the risk of overdue delivery of real estate projects of individual leading real estate companies; and the fourth is to continue to rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market.
It is worth mentioning that in 2021, many real estate companies were "overwhelmed" by high debts and cash flow shortages, and credit defaults occurred.
In this regard, the governor of the central bank Yi Gang said that the short-term risks of individual real estate companies will not affect the normal financing function of the medium and long-term market.
Relevant departments and local governments have actively taken measures to resolve risks in a stable and orderly manner, and market expectations are gradually improving.
Wang Menghui also stated that the primary goal will be to "protect buildings, protect the people's livelihood, and maintain stability", in accordance with the work requirements of the provinces and cities, and the principle of rule of law and marketization to ensure social stability and the interests of the country and the people will not be lost.
Photograph by Xiong Siyi, the new latitude and longitude in the data map
The deal size is expected to remain huge
Looking back on the real estate market in 2021, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the overheating phenomenon is actually due to the accelerated entry of various funds into real estate under the epidemic. "However, after similar panic-like funds enter, it is actually difficult to continue. , So the follow-up market will suddenly turn cold. In other words, the phenomenon of overheating is temporary, and the phenomenon of overcooling is in line with expectations."
For 2022, Yan Yuejin said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that from the perspective of the current policy spirit of the central bank, the real estate market will generally face an opportunity for easing, especially in terms of credit and other policies will be further easing.
The property market will assume a U-shaped trend, and the pressure in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively high; and in the second half of the year, it is expected that some new favorable factors will be formed after the policy is relaxed, which will further promote the property market to pick up slightly.
CITIC Securities believes that the status of the economic pillar of the real estate market remains unchanged, and the policy's intention to stabilize the market remains unchanged. However, the content of the policy has changed compared with history, the competition pattern of the industry has changed, and the industry concentration may begin to decline.
At the same time, the decisive role of mortgage interest rates and loan interest rates on real estate demand remains unchanged, and the recovery chain from sales to investment is expected to remain unchanged.
According to calculations by the Shell Research Institute, the total amount of real estate mortgages will reach 8 trillion yuan, which is expected to leverage 22-23 trillion yuan in real estate transactions.
Although there may be a slight decline in sales, the scale of the transaction is still huge.
According to the current development process, the Shell Research Institute stated that the second-hand housing market in some core cities will stabilize in the first quarter, and prices will be stabilized in the second quarter.
The new housing market will also be improved and gradually passed to the land market, so that the overall real estate market shows a trend of chain repair.
However, the Shell Research Institute emphasized that it should also be noted that the current market rebound is moderate, fragile, and differentiated, and the overall low temperature situation of the industry has not improved significantly. Housing prices are still falling inertially. Market expectations and new housing projects are open. The industry development rate is still at a low level; the risks of some real estate companies have not yet been lifted, and the industry has insufficient land investment demand.
Yan Yuejin also said that to see a lot of resistance to the recovery of the real estate market, in particular, although the policy is loose, whether the willingness of buyers to enter the market is absolutely strong, and whether the ability of buyers to pay is high enough, "These are all uncertain factors. It is easy to cause trouble to the market."
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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