Last week, after the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan prime rate (LPR) for loans with maturities over 5 years dropped by 25 basis points to 3.95%, many banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places quickly followed up and synchronously Mortgage interest rates are adjusted.
As the "boot" of interest rate cuts is implemented, it will have obvious "monetary policy" dividends for individuals' decisions to buy houses. Does this mean that home buyers will return to the market? Will the "Little Indian Spring" of the property market in 2024 be worth looking forward to?
In order to find the answer, Beijing Youth Daily reporters visited new property sales offices, second-hand housing stores, real estate auction centers and other sites in the first week of the interest rate cut to bring you first-hand market interpretation.
There was a queue of over 200 people to see the model room.
“Yeah, there’s a long queue to see the model rooms!” Ms. Fang, who came from Liuliqiao, Fengtai, to view the houses in Yongfeng Industrial Park, Haidian, was surprised last Saturday. “I haven’t seen such a scene for a long time. I queued up for more than half an hour at the building. After I came in to see the model room, I had to queue up numbers. I queued for more than 200 numbers and had to wait for at least an hour."
The actual location of this project is near the Zhuxinzhuang subway station in Changping District. It is a land acquired by the consortium of China Shipping and Future Science City on December 20, 2023 at a reserve price of 4.27 billion yuan, named China Shipping World. In the future, last Saturday was the first time the sales office was opened, and the scene was very popular.
"We were still doing decoration the night before, and the sand table was just glued yesterday." A salesperson at the scene said that according to their expectations, more than a thousand customers would visit the house that day.
It is understood that there are three model rooms in the project, but only one was opened on Saturday, and the rest are still being modified.
There was a steady stream of people coming to see the house.
From time to time, people were gesturing about the placement of furniture in the house, and some were even taking measuring tapes.
The weather is not so cold these days, the New Year has just ended, and the real estate market continues to have favorable policies, so I wanted to come and look at the house.
A Mr. Liu at the scene said that he works in Haidian North, and the Zhuxinzhuang subway is only 4 stops away from the company, which is very convenient.
Therefore, this time it is a "family trip". Not only do I bring my wife and children, my parents also come to see the house. If the apartment type and price are suitable, I will consider buying an improved four-bedroom apartment.
With the increase in the number of people looking at houses, the real estate consultants at the sales office are also busy like a spinning top. They have just connected with a group of home buyers here, and the calls are coming in one after another from the other side.
Regarding the question raised by a reporter from Beiqing Daily: "Why is the unit price of 66,000 yuan more expensive than the 62,000 yuan/square meter in neighboring Yuexiu and Dahua?" the salesperson explained that on the one hand, the unit size and decoration of Zhonghai Huanyu Future are better On the other hand, discounts will also be given at the actual opening, which will definitely be lower than the sales guide price of 66,000 yuan/square meter.
Real estate companies take the lead in "volume speed"
In fact, the above-mentioned China Overseas Huanyu Future is just one of the many new projects that opened its sales office last week.
Many developers, including Poly, China Shipping, China Resources and other central state-owned enterprises, took the lead in "speed up" after the Spring Festival holiday and just started construction.
Also last weekend, Poly's Jinshang, Tianhui, and Chaoyang Hexu projects in Chaoyang District were also opened to the public and welcomed more than 100 visiting customers. On February 25, Poly released a poster saying that weekend orders Daily sales reached 213 million yuan.
"This year, real estate companies will be more demanding, and the most important thing in the first half of the year will be the opening time." In an interview, the marketing person in charge of a project for sale in Chaoyang District told a reporter from Beiqing Daily that the Beijing property market in the first half of 2024 will be False starts will be the norm.
In addition to Huanyu Future, China Shipping has also opened its sales office and model rooms in the fifth phase of Huanyu Tianxia in Shijingshan. At the same time, the new project located in Guogongzhuang, Fengtai District has also been revealed to be called "Fenghe No. 3 Courtyard", all of which are Large units will be available in March.
A reporter from Beiqing Daily learned from the above-mentioned marketing person in charge that uncertainty about the subsequent market has prompted developers to speed up the sale of housing resources in their hands.
Most of the newly acquired land projects in the second half of last year will enter the market as quickly as possible.
“Each hot project is surrounded by fiercely competitive sectors. For example, China Overseas’ Fenghe No. 3 Courtyard will challenge Zhenyuan, a project that also focuses on large apartments in the current area; Chaoyang Poly Tianhui will compete with Dongba’s Beijing Investment·Beijing Investment Co., Ltd. There is a head-on confrontation in Xixi District. More new projects will appear in the future. Therefore, developers hope to capture some customers as soon as possible and grab the first batch of customers at the beginning of the year, so as to provide a strong boost to the sales target in the first half of the year. ."
With interest rate cuts benefiting, home buyers’ intention to buy properties has increased
Not only has there been a significant increase in the number of people viewing new homes at sales offices, but the number of inquiries and viewings of second-hand homes has also steadily picked up after the holiday.
After the introduction of the interest rate cut policy, an intermediary in Haidian District told a reporter from Beiqing Daily that as soon as the New Year holiday was over, a considerable number of house watchers inquired about buying houses in Haidian, and a large part of them had sold second-hand houses. Or people who are replacing and improving their second-hand houses that have been listed. Since the interest rate cut will significantly reduce the pressure on loan leverage, it may bring a new wave of potential transactions to the property market.
Data from 58 Anjuke Research Institute shows that changes in credit policies often stimulate the release of demand.
The peak of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing in the second half of 2023 happened to be in September. Benefiting from the favorable release of the "recognize the house but not the loan" policy, the number of second-hand housing online signings exceeded 14,000 units.
Then it gradually declined, but the monthly sales volume was more than 10,000 units, and the overall performance was stable.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February this year, as of the 22nd, 3,462 second-hand houses were signed online, and the number of online signings for the whole month was about 5,000.
Coupled with the interest rate cut policy introduced at the end of February and Tongzhou's policy of relaxing "double restrictions" before the Spring Festival, home buyers have high expectations for the relaxation of purchase restrictions in other areas, and rising market sentiment is expected to contribute to the overall stabilization and recovery of market transactions.
expert's point
Li Xiang, head of market research department and director of Savills North China:
The market will be slightly better than last year and there will be no U-shaped rebound
The real estate industry will be in a downturn in 2023. Even with frequent favorable policies, it has not changed the overall trend of the industry bottoming out. Therefore, the industry's market expectations for 2024 are not optimistic.
This is completely different from the end of 2022, when many industry experts and industry insiders were optimistic about the property market in 2023. After experiencing a gap where disappointment is greater than hope, the industry's view of 2024 is relatively objective and calm.
Although starting from the second half of 2023, the government has released a number of favorable policies in the hope of quickly stimulating the property market, it has not reversed the industry's sluggish status quo.
Judging from the review of the property market trend in 2023, it will still take a long time for the entire industry to regain its vitality. This process will be tortuous, not overnight. The property market is unlikely to have a U-shaped rebound, and the recovery process will definitely be relatively long. .
judge:
Therefore, regarding the performance of the property market in the first quarter of 2024, I cautiously believe that it will be slightly better than the same period last year, but I cannot expect too much.
If broken down, the activity of second-hand houses will be better than that of first-hand houses.
The specific reasons are as follows:
1. The Beijing property market has transformed from an incremental market to a stock market many years ago. In terms of demand-side activity, transaction volume and other indicators, second-hand housing is significantly better than the new housing market.
2. The variety of choices for second-hand houses is better than that of first-hand new houses.
For example, if you buy a house in a specific area (such as within the Fourth Ring Road), you will have more choices of second-hand houses.
3. Second-hand houses are more certain, and there will be no unexpected situations such as "thunderstorms" among real estate companies and delays in the delivery of new houses.
For new house developers, if they want to seize the market and emphasize decentralization, in addition to working hard on marketing channels, they must also work more on building product strength. For example, three sides facing south or four sides wide Only with unique house types, excellent functional partitions and rich supporting residential products can you stand out.
At the same time, the average price of the overall property market is unlikely to see further significant price cuts in 2024. Occasionally, there may be a small number of special-priced houses in some new housing types, but this method of exchanging price for volume will not appear on a large scale.
From a policy perspective, "stabilizing housing prices" is an important guiding ideology to ensure price stability in the real estate market and avoid excessive rapid or large fluctuations in housing prices. Stability of the real estate market is more important than anything else in 2024, and excessive volatility is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. .
suggestion:
It is not difficult to see a pattern from the recent loosening of property market policies, that is, restrictive policies often start in first-tier cities and are subsequently transmitted to second- and third-tier cities.
However, the policy of deregulation and optimization is exactly the opposite. It is often liberalized first in third- and fourth-tier cities, then pushed back to second-tier cities, and finally pushed back to first-tier cities, gradually liberalizing.
In this process, the decision-making level is obviously co-ordinated. Every time a policy is introduced, the market feedback will be observed. If the effect is not obvious and unsatisfactory, further new policies will be introduced; if the effect is relatively good and the property market transactions rebound significantly, it will Wait, take a look, and then decide on the pace of subsequent policy rollouts.
At present, the toolbox of policy reserves is still very rich. Taking Beijing as an example, there is room for optimization in terms of home purchase qualification restrictions, regional restrictions, loan restrictions, and asset class restrictions.
For example, whether the home purchase qualification threshold for paying social security for five consecutive years can be lowered to three or two years, and whether suburban areas (not the six urban districts) can first test the waters to loosen purchase restrictions, etc., are all possible methods.
How and when the policy will be issued in the future depends on the trend and performance of the property market. For example, if the transaction volume, one of the key indicators, improves significantly in the future, it will slow down the pace of further optimization of the policy, and vice versa.
expert's point
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo Institution:
Property market prices continue to bottom out, and more policy support is needed to boost and restore confidence.
Since the third quarter of last year, Beijing's regulatory policies have been in a continuously loose environment. Some are related to finance, such as adjusting the down payment ratio for first-time home owners and lowering loan interest rates; they are also related to real estate market policies, such as Tongzhou The lifting of the "double limit" and the adjustment of the recognition of ordinary residential properties have significantly contributed to the stabilization of the property market.
However, since it took a relatively long time for the market to turn from hot to cold, it also takes a process for regulatory policies to be truly effective and pull the real estate market up from the trough.
status quo:
In fact, the transaction volume of new housing projects has not increased significantly, so each project will still launch "special price housing" to attract more home-buying families.
Therefore, the current real estate market prices are in a continuous bottoming stage.
Taking the latest interest rate cut as an example, it can effectively reduce leverage, which is an obvious benefit for households currently buying houses.
However, for most people who are on the sidelines, interest rate cuts have no obvious effect on boosting demand, nor can they stimulate a large amount of potential demand into the market.
Therefore, the current property market, especially the new home market, will continue to bottom out.
This year's "Indian Summer" will come, but it may not necessarily be in March. It may be delayed, and the actual new home transactions will be weaker than the "Indian Summer" in previous years.
Data shows that last week was the first full working week after the Spring Festival holiday in Beijing. The number of second-hand housing transactions in the weekend just passed was only about 1,100. On the first weekend after the Spring Festival in 2023, the number of transactions in the second-hand housing market in two days was as high as 2,500. So far in 2024, the transaction volume is less than half of the same period last year.
Second-hand houses in many areas, including those in school districts in Xicheng District and Haidian District, have seen significant price reductions.
At present, the price adjustment of second-hand housing is relatively sufficient, and there are also signs of stabilizing.
expected:
How to stimulate more incremental demand for home purchases is a key issue that needs to be considered in the next step of policy.
Because everyone is still looking forward to more relaxed policies in the future, and is worried that the current house purchase may be halfway up the mountain, so the policy cards should be released as soon as possible, so as to give confidence to the market and the increasing demand for home purchases. , which is more conducive to stimulating and restoring the normal liquidity and vitality of the real estate market.
expert's point
Li Zhen, Vice President of 58 Anjuke Research Institute:
The probability of a "Little Indian Summer" in the property market this year is very high
Tongzhou relaxed the "double restrictions" before the Spring Festival. Home buyers have high expectations for further relaxation of the policy, and market sentiment is rising.
As people return to Beijing to resume work one after another after the Spring Festival, the number of inquiries and views on second-hand houses is also picking up.
In addition, starting from March, second-hand houses in Haidian District and Dong and Xicheng Districts will become hot spots in the real estate market. These factors will help stabilize and recover the market.
Therefore, the probability of "Indian Summer" happening this year is very high.
The basis for this judgment mainly includes the following aspects:
1. Policy: Relaxation is the general trend
Last year, a series of policies such as "recognizing a house but not a loan", reducing the down payment ratio, and adjusting the standards for common housing had a certain boost to the property market, but the essence was still to activate the stock and improve the housing exchange group to enter the market; before the Spring Festival, Tongzhou's "double restrictions" were relaxed, It truly touches on the essence of deregulation and increases the market’s incremental demand for home purchases.
2. Market: There are also positive signs
Compared with the peak of Beijing's second-hand housing listings in the fourth quarter of last year, which exceeded 160,000 units, the current listing volume has stabilized at around 140,000 units, a significant decline.
From November 2023 to January 2024, the number of online second-hand housing signings in Beijing has exceeded 12,000 for three consecutive months. The transaction volume in January increased by about 50% year-on-year, indicating that the market is gradually recovering.
In addition, there is a high probability that Beijing will introduce new policies after the "Two Sessions". Before the enrollment season in May, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing's Haidian District and East and West City will also increase, which will promote the arrival of "Little Indian Spring".
3. Will interest rate cuts stimulate demand for home purchases?
On February 20 this year, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 25 basis points, which will reduce the cost of home purchase. All new home buyers can immediately enjoy the benefits of the new policy.
In particular, improvement demand will benefit more, because the total amount of improved housing loans will be higher, and interest rate cuts will greatly reduce the cost of using funds.
For example, for an improved house worth 8 million yuan, calculated based on the down payment ratio of 40% for the second house, if it is a pure commercial loan for 25 years, the total loan amount is 4.8 million yuan. After the interest rate reduction, the interest can be reduced by about 200,000 yuan. Figures Very impressive.
Judgment of future property market trends:
Judging from the supply of new homes, Beijing's land supply plan in 2024 has been released, and the planned supply of commercial residential land is 300 hectares, which is the same as in 2023, which means that the overall supply of new homes is stable.
However, judging from the planned supply plans of each district in 2024, the phenomenon of "bundled supply" in the same sector is still obvious. After these new land parcels enter the market, they will inevitably squeeze the surrounding new homes for sale, especially in Daxing, Shunyi, Fengtai and other areas with sufficient supply. In this region, the probability of price war is very high.
However, the number of high-quality land plots has also increased significantly in 2024. Judging from the first round of land supply list, Dongcheng Jinyuchi, Chaoyang Jiuxianqiao, Haidian Yongfeng and other sectors have new land. Due to the small supply and good location, the disposal speed will also be faster.
In addition, it is expected that further policies to support the property market will be introduced this year. In particular, some suburbs with a lot of inventory and difficult to sell may follow up and optimize the purchase restriction policy. With reference to the experience of Shanghai and Shenzhen, the possibility of reducing the social security/individual tax years of non-local household registration may be reduced. larger.
In addition, the policy toolbox also contains reserves for relaxing talent introduction, foreclosures, commercial and office purchases, and divorce house purchases. Behind each policy, a batch of corresponding house purchase demands will be accurately released to help stabilize the property market.
This article is written by our reporter Li Heng