Second-hand housing sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are picking up, and the belated "Little Indian Spring" is slowly emerging.

　　Author: Sun Mengfan

　　Almost coincidentally, the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has experienced "unusual changes".

　　Industry data shows that after entering March, second-hand housing transactions in the four major first-tier cities have shown an upward trend. Among them, Beijing’s single-day transaction volume exceeded 1,000 units on weekends, Shanghai’s average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing was twice that in February, and Shenzhen’s second-hand housing sales The weekly transaction volume exceeded 1,000 units, and the activity of Guangzhou’s second-hand property market is also on the rise.

　　March is originally the "Little Indian Spring" season for the traditional real estate market. However, since the overall real estate market has declined, the fluctuation range at this special time has become smaller and smaller. Only a few core cities are still warm.

"Second-hand housing transactions in core cities are indeed picking up, but at a slower pace than before. The Indian Spring market is promising, but it may not necessarily reach the previous level." An industry analyst believes.

　　"Little Indian Spring" emerges

　　"Beijing Indian Summer, the house is sold." Recently, many owners have shared their experience of selling their houses on social platforms.

　　Some people started selling their houses last year. After experiencing several market ups and downs, they finally took advantage of the market situation after the Spring Festival this year to successfully sell their houses, although the price was at a discount from the high point of Xiaoyangchun last year.

The reality is mixed. Some owners have successfully sold the property, while others have no choice but to say, "There are more than 30 units of the same apartment type in the community, but they cannot be sold at all, so they can only reduce prices."

　　Home buyers are also struggling with the loosening of policies. Should they take advantage of the market consolidation to "bargain" to enter the market, or should they take into account the high stock of second-hand houses and wait for prices to continue to decline?

There is no standard answer to this.

Since last year, Beijing’s second-hand housing market has experienced many “price-for-volume” transactions. If a property is to be successfully sold, price reduction is almost inevitable.

　　Behind the stories of owners selling their houses, what’s going on in the second-hand housing market?

Can "Little Indian Summer" come?

Judging from industry data and analysis, first-tier cities are expected to usher in the "Little Indian Spring".

　　Take Beijing as an example. At the beginning of the year, some industry analysts believed that the baseline for the popularity of second-hand housing in Beijing is 15,000 residential units sold in a single month. However, market promotion mainly relies on the demand for housing in school districts, and demand will decline after April.

The "Little Indian Spring" in 2023 is largely due to the release of demand for housing in school districts and the previous backlog. The market transaction high point in 2024 may also appear in March to April.

　　According to statistics from Centaline Real Estate, on the weekend of March 2nd and 3rd, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was approximately 1,700 units, which was a significant increase from the 1,100 units last weekend. The transaction volume was generally 200~ more than the weekend before the Spring Festival. 300 sets.

In the past weekend of the 9th and 10th, the total number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 2,100 units, and nearly 1,200 units on the 10th.

　　"The effect of loosening purchase restrictions in first-tier cities continues to be released. Judging from the Central Plains Quotation Index, first-tier cities continue to generally rebound. Overall, the Indian Summer in 2024 is really on the way. Although it is a little later and less popular than in previous years, as long as there are policies, There will be a wave of market conditions in the near future." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes.

　　He said that there are three reasons for the "Little Indian Summer" in the property market every March. First, it was inconvenient to go out in the previous winter, and the demand for home purchases during the Spring Festival holiday was suppressed, which was released after the holiday; second, the impact of various financial or property market control policies; third, There is a boom in housing transactions in school districts. Generally, if you settle down before May, you can study in the relevant school district that year, which has boosted the market transactions in March and April.

　　However, given that the real estate market is still bottoming out, price cuts are common in the second-hand housing market, and it will take time for homebuyers' confidence to recover, the industry does not have high hopes for the intensity of this year's "Little Indian Spring".

"There is a high probability of Indian Summer, but it may be the weakest one. In previous years, the market volume in March would have doubled that of January. It is unlikely to happen in 2024." Zhang Dawei believes.

　　The same is true for other first-tier cities.

In February this year, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 38,633 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 9% from the previous month; affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the transaction volume was 6,800 units, a decrease of 59% from the previous month.

　　But since March, market conditions have improved.

Transaction data from the Shanghai Real Estate Center shows that from March 1st to March 8th, Shanghai’s daily second-hand housing transaction volume ranged from 478 to 676 units, and the average daily transaction volume was 571.5 units, which was the average daily transaction volume in the same period in February (250 units). set) more than 2 times.

　　March and April every year are the traditional peak seasons for the Shanghai real estate market. The "gold, three, silver and four" are rarely absent from the Shanghai real estate market. In addition, with the current policies continuing to stimulate stimulus, will there be a rebound trend again this year?

　　"Transactions are indeed picking up, but at a slower pace than before." Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate, told China Business News that in the past, it could return to normal levels or even higher after two weeks after the Spring Festival, but now it only reaches a high level three weeks after the holiday. level.

"The Indian Summer market will definitely come out, but it may not reach the previous level. The delay in warming up by a week shows that the market is still quite hesitant."

　　In Shenzhen, according to statistics from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, 1,085 second-hand housing units (including self-service units) were recorded in the city in the ninth week of 2024, a month-on-month increase of 14.1%.

The policy effect continues to exert force, and the weekly transaction volume of second-hand houses exceeded the 1,000-unit mark.

"This data shows that under the momentum of the traditional Indian summer in March, the Shenzhen second-hand housing market is showing a strong recovery trend."

　　"In the context of the current intensive introduction of policies, the market expects that policies will continue to be relaxed within a certain period of time. This has played a positive role in stabilizing market confidence, causing the market to have bottomed out in terms of transaction volume and began to enter a recovery period." Shenzhen Real Estate Association say.

The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association also recently stated that the activity of the local second-hand property market is on the rise.

　　The industry expects policy space to open up

　　Not only in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, second-hand housing transactions in many places are picking up month-on-month.

　　According to monitoring data from the Zhuge Data Research Center, in the 10th week of 2024 (3.4-3.10), the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the 10 key cities was 14,463 units, an increase of 11.23% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 35.9%.

Compared with new homes, the transaction volume of second-hand homes is more stable. The transaction volume has increased month-on-month for three consecutive times, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed slightly.

　　"Although the overall recovery speed of second-hand housing is relatively slow, it has the trend and potential of sustained recovery." The above-mentioned institutions said that they predict that the subsequent trend of second-hand housing will maintain a steady recovery, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing next week is expected to return to pre-holiday levels. .

　　The second-hand housing market has recovered slightly. Is the new housing market worth looking forward to?

　　According to a CRIC research report, 28 key cities are expected to add 7.48 million square meters of commercial residential supply area in March, a month-on-month increase of 124% and a year-on-year decrease of 60%.

Due to the increase in supply, transactions are expected to recover and are expected to increase month-on-month. However, considering the high base last year, the year-on-year decline may continue, and some cities may experience a partial "Indian Spring".

　　CRIC believes that the market differentiation in different cities is expected to continue. Core first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Shenzhen, and Xiamen are expected to see a wave of transactions due to favorable policies and the introduction of marketable and improved products. Increase the volume.

　　Overall, the foundation for the current property market recovery is not solid, and this year’s National Two Sessions have also made clear decisions on follow-up regulation.

　　The government work report stated that restrictive measures should be reduced to better meet the people's needs for improving their lives.

The implementation of policies must strengthen synergy and linkage, amplify the combination effect, and avoid focusing on one at the expense of the other and preventing each other from constraining each other.

The research reserve policy should be more forward-looking, enrich the toolbox, and leave redundancy to ensure that it can be launched in a timely manner and function effectively if needed.

　　CRIC commented on this that the reduction of restrictive measures means that the general trend of loosening control on the first line and comprehensive liberalization of the second and third lines this year will not change. The "four restrictions" in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have been loosened again. space; on the other hand, credit, fiscal and taxation and other policies are expected to further develop to support residents’ home purchases.

　　In addition, there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The February RRR cut and the larger-than-expected interest rate cut reflect the characteristics of monetary policy being proactive. Under the demands of economic growth and reduction of comprehensive social financing costs, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts within the year are still expected; Structure Sexual monetary policy tools are expected to continue to be effective; there is still room for optimization and adjustment of residential housing credit policies. For example, for families with multiple children and those who have purchased a house for rent, the standards for determining the number of home purchase loans will be relaxed accordingly.

　　Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also said recently: “Now that cities have been given full autonomy in regulation, city governments must shoulder their responsibilities and prepare and implement housing plans based on population conditions, supply and demand, and security needs. Development planning, city-specific policies, optimization of real estate policies, and stabilization of the real estate market.”

　　The China Index Research Institute said that in 2024, it is expected that more cities will optimize and adjust relevant policies in a timely manner based on their own conditions. First-tier cities may continue to optimize purchase restriction policies, second-tier cities are expected to completely cancel restrictive policies, and core cities will reduce down payment ratios, lower mortgage interest rates and other policies. There is still room; at the same time, on the supply side, restrictions on project prices are also expected to be optimized to meet residents' diverse needs for improved housing.