Main indicators continue to recover, and my country’s economic recovery continues to advance
The National Bureau of Statistics released the main macroeconomic data for April 2021 on the 17th.
Statistics show that in April, the production of industry and service industries continued to accelerate, and the year-on-year growth rate of investment and consumption still maintained double-digit growth. my country's economy continued its steady recovery.
It is worth noting that while the economy maintains its recovery growth, new momentum has been further strengthened, market vitality has been significantly improved, and the quality of economic development has continued to improve.
Looking to the future, experts and industry insiders believe that my country's economic recovery is well supported.
Production rises steadily
From the perspective of the supply side, industrial production has risen steadily, and the service industry production index has maintained growth.
In terms of industry, in April, the value-added of industries above designated size increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.8%, which was 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous month.
In terms of industries, in April, 37 of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value.
Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry and the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 11.2% and 11.6% respectively over the same period last year.
In the service industry, in April, the national service industry production index increased by 18.2% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.2%, maintaining a steady growth overall.
From the perspective of major industries, the production indices of the eight sub-sectors all maintained growth year-on-year.
Among them, the operating income of information transmission, software and information technology service industries, scientific research and technical service industries increased by 17.0% and 11.7% respectively in two years.
In terms of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index is 62.7%, staying in the high level of above 60.0% for three consecutive months.
From the perspective of new momentum, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that among the industries above designated size, the growth rate of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing was significantly faster than that of all industries above designated size. Green, low-carbon and smart new products Maintaining relatively rapid growth. The two-year average growth rate of the output of new energy vehicles and industrial robots has maintained a double-digit growth, indicating that the development of my country's new kinetic energy continues to grow.
Demand continues to expand
From the demand side, my country’s exports are growing well, market sales continue to recover, and fixed asset investment continues to recover.
Exports continue to maintain rapid growth.
From January to April, the country's imports and exports increased by 33.8% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since 2011.
The two-year average year-on-year growth of exports in April was 14.7%, which was faster than the previous month.
Consumption is still expanding.
In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,535.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and an average growth of 4.3% in two years.
In terms of consumption categories, while commodity consumption has recovered, service consumption has also continued to recover; in terms of consumption patterns, online retail continues to maintain rapid growth, and the average growth rate of physical store retail in two years has also accelerated compared with the previous month; In terms of retail sales, 17 of the 18 categories have maintained their two-year average growth rate.
Fixed asset investment continued to recover.
From January to April, the two-year average growth of fixed asset investment was 3.9% year-on-year, which was 1 percentage point higher than that from January to March.
Among them, the investment in the primary industry, high-tech industry and social sectors grew rapidly: investment in the primary industry increased by 35.5% year-on-year, an average increase of 15.2% in two years; investment in high-tech industries increased by 28.8% year-on-year, and an average increase of 11.8% in two years; social Field investment increased by 26.3% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 10.6% over the two years.
Sustained economic recovery is supported
Looking to the future, the industry agrees that consumption and investment will further promote economic growth, foreign trade has a foundation to maintain a steady growth trend, macro policies will continue to exert force, and my country's economy will continue to recover with better support.
In terms of consumption and investment, Fu Linghui believes that with the improvement of employment, the increase of residents' income, and the improvement of the overall consumption environment, there are many favorable conditions for consumption to maintain a stable recovery. Later consumption will continue to play the role of stabilizer and has very solid support.
In terms of investment, the current corporate efficiency has improved significantly. In the first quarter, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises reached a high level in the same period in history. The market demand orders and corporate expectations are relatively good, and a series of policies to support enterprises will continue to play a role. Conducive to the increase of corporate investment
Soochow Securities Li Yong analyzed that the Politburo meeting held on April 30 pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the recovery of domestic demand, promote the recovery of manufacturing investment and private investment as soon as possible, and ensure the land for major national projects and other factors, and formulate the promotion of common prosperity. The action plan is to support the continuous expansion of domestic demand with the general increase in the income of urban and rural residents.
This move is conducive to stimulating the growth of imports and forming the potential momentum of my country's exports.
Domestic enterprises have strong demand for production and replenishment, and they are optimistic about future economic trends.
Therefore, my country's exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in the second quarter.
The research report of Everbright Securities stated that external demand is an important part of the demand for my country's manufacturing products. The strong manufacturing production and strong exports have mutually confirmed this situation. This situation has basically continued since the second half of last year. my country’s export growth rate remained at a relatively high level in April. Looking forward to the follow-up, due to the resonance of the global economic recovery after the epidemic, strong external demand and strong support for manufacturing production, it is expected that industrial production will remain at a relatively high level in a short period of time. (Yang Xi)