The simultaneous rebound in the index reflects the warm economic recovery and simultaneous improvement in production and demand.

The simultaneous rebound in the index reflects the warmth of economic recovery (Rui Finance)

　　Our reporter Li Jie

　　"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (Page 03, April 9, 2024)

　　Logistics industry prosperity index, warehousing index, bulk commodity price index, manufacturing purchasing managers index... Recently, a number of indices have been released intensively in March, showing a month-on-month increase and a rebound trend.

　　Various analysts pointed out that as an important reference for economic performance, the major indexes rebounded simultaneously, demonstrating that China's economy continues to recover and its endogenous power continues to increase.

Economic boom levels pick up

　　The rebound is a common feature of many newly released indices recently.

　　China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.5% in March, an increase of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month. Major sub-indices such as the total business volume index, new orders index, and inventory turnover index increased across the board. "Data show that upstream and downstream activities in the supply chain became more active in March, the recovery of logistics demand accelerated, corporate operating efficiency improved, industry investment growth and market expectations continued to consolidate." said Hu Hao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center.

　　China's warehousing index was 52.6% in March, an increase of 8.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Major indices such as new orders, facility utilization, ending inventory and average inventory turnover times all rebounded significantly. "Against the backdrop of an overall positive recovery in the domestic macro-economy, warehousing business activities have been significantly active, commodity turnover efficiency has been significantly accelerated, corporate expectations are improving, and enthusiasm for stocking is high." Wang Yong, vice president of China Reserve Development Co., Ltd., said.

　　China's commodity price index in March was 112, up 0.6% month-on-month. "It shows that with the continued efforts of various policies to stabilize the economy, market confidence has recovered, downstream consumption has gradually picked up, and economic operations have shown a recovery trend." China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement.

　　The China Purchasing Managers Index recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics also showed that in March, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.8%, 53.0% and 52.7% respectively, an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. , 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the three major indices are all in the expansion range, indicating that corporate production and operation activities are accelerating and my country's economic prosperity level is picking up.

Synchronous improvement in production demand

　　Multiple indices show that in March, as companies accelerated their resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, market activity increased and production demand improved simultaneously.

　　The manufacturing production index and new orders index in March were 52.2% and 53.0% respectively, up 2.4 and 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant rebound in production and demand. Driven by the rebound in production and market demand, the purchasing activities of manufacturing companies increased significantly, with the purchasing volume index at 52.7%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Looking at different industries, the three key industries expanded simultaneously. The purchasing managers' index of high-tech manufacturing, consumer goods industry, and equipment manufacturing industry were 53.9%, 51.8%, and 51.6% respectively, up 3.1, 1.8, and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. They were all higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry The production index and new order index are both higher than 55.0%, and the production demand of related industries is accelerating.

　　"In March, as the policy of stabilizing the economy, expanding domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade continued, the endogenous power of the economy continued to be released. At the same time, external demand also improved, and market demand grew well." said Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center.

　　As the upstream and downstream activities of the industry become more active, the recovery of logistics demand is accelerating. In March, the total logistics business volume index, equipment utilization index, and capital turnover index continued to remain in the expansion range, and operational efficiency showed an upward trend. "Logistics prosperity index data shows that demand and supply grew simultaneously in both directions in March, the operational efficiency and profitability of various types of enterprises increased steadily, and logistics operations showed a smooth start in the first quarter." Hu Hao said.

Market expectations continue to improve

　　A series of data show that China's main production and demand indicators are rising steadily, the flow of people and logistics factors is more active, and business development expectations are improving.

　　Looking at the manufacturing industry, in March, the production and operation activity expectation index was 55.6%, rising to a relatively high prosperity range, "indicating that companies have increased confidence in recent market development." Zhao Qinghe said. Among them, the expected index of production and operation activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, food and alcoholic beverages refined tea, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery equipment are all in the high-prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and companies are more optimistic about the development of the industry.

　　Looking at the service industry, the business activity expectation index in March was 58.2%, which continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service industry companies remain optimistic about future market development. In addition, as the weather gets warmer and construction starts intensively after the holidays, the construction progress of construction projects in various places has accelerated, and construction industry companies have increased their confidence in the recent development of the industry.

　　However, Zhao Qinghe also said that the survey results show that enterprises still face some outstanding problems in production and operation, such as the proportion of enterprises reflecting intensified industry competition and insufficient market demand is still high. The current policies and measures to promote a new round of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods need to be further detailed and implemented to provide strong support for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.

　　"The overall economic recovery is at a critical period." Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that we must do our best to implement various policy tasks, significantly increase the driving and amplifying effect of government investment, promote the continued recovery of investment growth, and promote consumption. Demand has further picked up, continuing to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery. (People's Daily Overseas Edition)