The basic trend of my country's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed

The basic trend of my country's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed (a rational view of the economic situation)

　　Ning Jizhe

core reading

In the past year, my country's economy has continued to recover and rebound, and high-quality development has been solidly advanced. Currently, my country's economic recovery is still at a critical stage. Taken together, the favorable conditions facing my country's development outweigh the unfavorable factors and it still has important development opportunities.

　　In 2023, my country's economy will rebound and improve, and high-quality development will be solidly advanced. In the new year, we must adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, Consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, continue to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, and comprehensively promote the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.

　　The main expected goals of economic and social development in 2023 have been successfully achieved

　　In the past year, my country's economy has continued to recover and rebounded for the better. Macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, employment, prices, and the balance of payments have made steady progress, and the main expected goals of economic and social development have been successfully achieved.

　　The economic growth rate remains the leading among the world's major economies. In 2023, my country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% year-on-year for the whole year, which is higher than the international currency. The IMF's full-year growth forecasts of 2.1% for the United States, 2.0% for Japan, and 0.7% for the Eurozone are expected to contribute more than 30% to world economic growth. Expanding domestic demand has played a supporting role in economic growth. After the epidemic prevention and control phase was transferred, contact and cluster consumption continued to rise, and automobile-related consumption also turned from decline to rise. In the end, the contribution rate of consumer spending to economic growth reached 82.5%.

　　Create new jobs to achieve the goal. In 2023, my country will create 12.44 million new urban jobs, reaching the target expected at the beginning of the year. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate for the whole year averaged 5.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. The nationwide surveyed urban unemployment rate in December was 5.1%, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.0%. The employment of migrant workers continues to improve. The urban surveyed unemployment rate of the migrant agricultural household registered population dropped to 4.3% in December, and the annual average was 4.9%.

　　The price situation is generally stable. In 2023, with the growth of my country's industrial and agricultural production and the phased correction of some international commodity prices, my country's price growth will be lower than expected at the beginning of the year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7%, remaining stable. The core CPI is generally stable and food prices are low, which is conducive to reducing the daily living costs of the people. In the long term, my country's CPI will show an overall stable and moderate upward trend.

　　The balance of international payments is basically balanced. In the past year, faced with the complex environment of slowing global economic and trade growth and suppression and containment by a few countries, relevant parties have focused on stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, achieving a steady increase in import and export volume and quality. The total import and export of goods for the whole year was 41.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year. Among them, the total value of import and export in December reached 3.81 trillion yuan, a record high for monthly scale. The proportion of general trade import and export, private enterprise import and export, import and export to countries co-building the “Belt and Road” and mechanical and electrical product exports increased, and the trade structure continued to improve. At the end of the year, foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$3.2 trillion, and the RMB exchange rate was generally stable.

　　High-quality development has been solidly advanced and new achievements have been achieved.

　　In 2023, while growth is picking up, employment is increasing, prices are low, and the balance of payments is basically balanced, my country's high-quality economic development will be solidly advanced and new results will be achieved.

　　New progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system. The steady growth of the three industries supported economic recovery and development. In 2023, the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries will increase by 4.1%, 4.7% and 5.8% respectively year-on-year. The agricultural foundation has been further strengthened, and total grain output has reached a new high, stabilizing at more than 1.3 trillion catties for nine consecutive years. The leading role of industry has increased, the proportion of manufacturing added value in GDP has been basically stable, and the overall scale continues to rank first in the world; the proportion of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing has increased. The development of the modern service industry is accelerating. From January to November 2023, the operating income of the information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services industries increased by 12.8% and 12.7% respectively. The construction of modern infrastructure such as national water networks, high-speed railways, and 5G communications has been stepped up.

　　Scientific and technological innovation achieves new breakthroughs. The new national system has been continuously improved, the national strategic scientific and technological strength has been continuously strengthened, the status of enterprises as the main subjects of scientific and technological innovation has been improved, and a number of major scientific and technological achievements have emerged. The Shenzhou 16 manned spacecraft returned successfully, the Shenzhou 17 manned spacecraft was successfully launched, the C919 large passenger aircraft was put into commercial operation, the first domestically produced large cruise ship made a trial voyage, and the world's first 16 MW large-capacity offshore wind turbine completed hoisting and operation High-end equipment such as robots and new cotton picking machines were successfully developed and put into use. New technologies have spawned new industries, new business formats, and new models. Strategic emerging industries and future industries such as new generation information technology, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biomedicine, new energy, and new materials have grown rapidly, and new quality productivity has accelerated.

　　Reform and opening up are advancing in depth. A new round of party and state institutional reform has been basically completed, the reform of state-owned enterprises continues to deepen, and a series of policies to encourage and support the development and growth of private enterprises have been introduced and implemented. From January to November 2023, 30.204 million new business entities were established across the country, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Most of the newly established enterprises are private enterprises. High-level opening up to the outside world continues to expand, the China (Xinjiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone was established, and the "Overall Plan for Comprehensively Aligning with International High-Standard Economic and Trade Rules to Promote High-level Institutional Opening-up of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone" was issued. In 2023, 53,800 new foreign-invested enterprises were established across the country, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%. China-Europe freight trains operated a total of 17,000 trains throughout the year, sending 1.9 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 6% and 18% respectively.

　　The foundation for safe development has been consolidated. Work on preventing and resolving hidden risks in real estate, local debt, small and medium-sized financial institutions, etc. is progressing in an orderly manner. Food security is guaranteed and the national grain reserves are sufficient. Energy security has been continuously strengthened, domestic oil and natural gas production has increased, and results have been achieved in ensuring the supply and price of electricity. The security capabilities of industrial and supply chains have been significantly strengthened, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the actual use of foreign capital in high-tech manufacturing increased by 6.5%.

　　People's livelihood protection is strong and effective. In 2023, the per capita disposable income of national residents will actually increase by 6.1%, which is faster than the GDP growth rate in the same period. Among them, the per capita disposable income of rural residents actually increased by 7.6%. This is not only the result of the hard work of the people, but also the result of the state's implementation of various policies that benefit the people and farmers. In response to the urgent, difficult and long-awaited problems of the people, basic public services such as compulsory education, basic medical care, basic elderly care, and public culture continue to be strengthened. In the housing field, the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood, and ensuring stability has been further advanced, and the "three major projects" including the construction of affordable housing, the construction of "both emergency and leisure" public infrastructure, and the renovation of urban villages have been fully launched. The ecological environment continues to improve. From January to December 2023, the average proportion of days with good air quality in 339 cities at the prefecture level and above across the country was 85.5%. The people's sense of ecological environment gain, happiness, and security continue to increase.

　　The favorable conditions facing my country's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors

　　At present, my country's economic recovery is still at a critical stage. The basic trend of recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the prospects for promoting high-quality development are bright. At the same time, it should also be noted that there are still some difficulties and challenges that need to be overcome to further promote the recovery of my country's economy, mainly insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, there are still many risks and hidden dangers, and there are blocking points in the domestic cycle. The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased.

　　Taken together, the favorable conditions facing my country's development outweigh the unfavorable factors and it still has important development opportunities. First, the ultra-large-scale market contains opportunities. my country's population is huge, with the middle-income group exceeding 400 million and gradually expanding. The people's yearning for a better life will generate huge consumer demand, and the investment structure and industrial structure upgrades caused by the upgrading of the consumption structure will generate new demands. Second, the vast development space in urban and rural areas contains opportunities. At present, there is still a large gap between the urbanization rate of my country's registered population and the urbanization rate of the permanent population. Promoting the new type of urbanization centered on people and accelerating the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population will release huge domestic demand. Third, many operating entities contain opportunities. Our country has more than 180 million business entities and has huge potential for entrepreneurship, innovation and creation. Fourth, the complete supporting industrial system contains opportunities. my country's industrial scale is large, the system is complete, and the supporting capabilities are strong. It can efficiently meet various types of market demands and is conducive to the formation of economies of scale, economies of scope, and agglomeration economic effects. Fifth, improving innovation-supported development capabilities contains opportunities. my country ranks first in the world in terms of full-time equivalent of R&D personnel and ranks second in R&D investment. It also has a talent dividend of more than 200 million people with a university education and more than 200 million skilled talents. In the face of digitalization and greening, two important trends in a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, we have the ability to firmly seize opportunities and accelerate the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance. Sixth, the complex and changing external environment presents opportunities amid crises. Although the current world economic growth momentum is insufficient and geopolitical risks are increasing, peace, development, and cooperation are still the trend of the times, and the trend of economic globalization is unstoppable. As long as we unswervingly expand high-level opening up to the outside world and concentrate on running our own affairs well, we will be able to continuously improve the internal and external environment, overcome various difficulties, and turn crises into opportunities. It should also be noted that there is still considerable room for my country to increase macro-control efforts. In the past few years, we have coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development without resorting to "flooding"-style strong stimulus. This has accumulated useful experience and left policy space for effectively responding to current risks and challenges and actively promoting economic recovery.

　　To implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and do a good job in economic work this year, we must persist in using Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era to unify our thoughts, will, and actions. We must adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era and improve and promote high-quality development. We will adopt the performance assessment and evaluation method, fully mobilize all positive factors and various factor resources, and strive to promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. We must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and then breaking, develop more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and be proactive in transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency. It is necessary to increase macro-control efforts, strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools. It is necessary to plan major measures to further comprehensively deepen reforms and continue to inject strong impetus into promoting high-quality development and accelerating Chinese-style modernization. It is necessary to coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, coordinate new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, and strive to implement various key tasks and measures to effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, and improve Social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive economic recovery trend. We must grasp the inherent laws of the development of things, accurately identify times and trends, risks and opportunities, advantages and disadvantages, always maintain a vigorous and promising mental state, take the initiative to take action, implement without compromise, be vigorous and resolute in implementation, and be truthful and pragmatic. Implement, dare to do good, and ensure implementation to test the effectiveness of promoting high-quality development. (The author of People’s Daily is the vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center)