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The corona crisis is an extreme test for the economy, society and the state.
After a year in a state of emergency, it turns out that Germany's resilience is in a pretty bad shape.
Especially since a comprehensive crisis strategy is still missing.
This is the verdict of the future council of the Bavarian economy in an interim balance, which is available to WELT.
Germany urgently needs to strengthen its resilience - also in order to be much better equipped for future crises.
Shortly after the first lockdown, the committee of experts for the Association of Bavarian Economy (vbw), made up of representatives from business, science and politics, presented specific recommendations for action to enable the economy, schools and other areas to start up safely despite the ongoing pandemic .
The suggestions ranged from tests in all companies using mobile test stations to pragmatic ideas for safe schooling and childcare through to the technological upgrading of the authorities and targeted research and innovation funding.
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However, it is not only the example of rapid tests - which are only now increasingly being used - that Germany has taken too long with such approaches.
South Korea has been using mass tests for a year.
The repeated month-long school closings are also the result of a short-sighted corona policy.
Instead of opportunities, concerns are in the foreground in Germany
The President of the Technical University of Munich, Thomas F. Hofmann, one of the two chairmen of the Future Council, speaks of a “corona wake-up call”.
"The Corona crisis is not the cause of the historical changes, but a catalyst that shows us the failures of the last decade without make-up."
Germany has to rely much more courageously on socially acceptable innovations and assert its technological sovereignty in future fields, warns the natural scientist.
The Council for the Future is particularly concerned about the lag in digitization, which the crisis has made very clear.
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Germany not only needs a future-proof digital infrastructure, but also, in general, the consistent use of new technologies.
In fact, the sobering experience with the Corona app - which due to strict data protection rules and the therefore very limited application possibilities hardly helps in combating the pandemic - teaches that in this country the concerns rather than the opportunities are in the foreground.
"A medium to long-term strategy for dealing with crises such as the corona pandemic can hardly be identified at the moment," complains vbw President Wolfram Hatz, also Chairman of the Future Council.
However, such a strategy is the basis for greater resilience.
As recently as the summer, the Germans said they would get through this crisis better than other countries.
That can no longer be said now, according to the interim report.
"We still have a relatively good health system and a stable economic base."
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In many places, however, Germany's implementation deficits are now becoming visible, which are largely due to the fact that the potentials of technological solutions, and especially digitization, are not being exploited more consistently, complains the Future Council.
This applies to the organizational problems with vaccination and testing as well as to the deficits in schools or the inadequate collection and use of data in connection with the follow-up of the infection process.
The policy of continuous contact restrictions practiced in Germany is also criticized.
"Shielding is an effective means for a short period of time, but then has to be replaced by concepts that support and facilitate responsible action by the individual."
This requires the use of technical assistance systems such as a more efficient Corona app and other technological innovations, according to the interim report.
Although a lot has got going in some areas such as testing or home office, the Future Council currently sees even more urgent need for action on many levels compared to last summer.
In addition to the blatant deficiencies in digitization in the healthcare sector, the group of experts also complains about the inadequate use of scientific knowledge.
For example, the role of aerosols in the spread of infections has been widely researched, but is rarely used in politics, according to the paper.
The economy should also become more resilient in the future
When it comes to lockdown, for example, little attention is paid to the fact that outdoor contacts pose little risk.
"We need strategies for an extensive return to normality while maintaining the required level of health protection," says the interim report.
The Future Council - which includes well-known scientists such as the President of the Fraunhofer Society, Reimund Neugebauer, and the President of the German Academy of Science and Engineering, Dieter Spath, as well as company representatives and Bavaria's Minister of Economic Affairs, Hubert Aiwanger - is not just about coping with the corona crisis, but also about strengthening Germany's resilience to future crises that could be of a completely different nature.
In order to strengthen resilience, the country must become more competitive and, above all, more innovative again.
A “national research strategy” is necessary for this.
Innovative approaches are also required in all key technologies in order to transfer the results of basic research into practice more quickly.
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“The example of the mRNA vaccines shows that it can be of enormous social benefit if the state takes on development and market launch risks in a targeted manner,” emphasizes vbw boss Hatz.
Mainz-based vaccine manufacturer Biontech, like its Tübingen competitor Curevac, received large amounts of research and development funding from the federal government last year.
Together with its US partner Pfizer, Biontech was the first company in the world to develop an effective vaccine against Covid-19 based on a new biotechnological process.
Curevac plans to apply for approval of its vaccine in the next few months.
In the opinion of the Future Council, the international division of labor remains important despite the experience from last spring with interrupted supply chains and bottlenecks in medical products.
At the same time, however, Germany must avoid becoming dependent on non-EU countries for essential goods such as pharmaceutical products or future technologies.