China News Service, Beijing, February 9 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Judgments surrounding this year's global economic prospects are becoming divided.

　　In its latest report, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2024 from 2.7% to 2.9%, and maintained its forecast for 2025 economic growth at 3%. The report believes that Asia will remain the main engine of world economic growth from 2024 to 2025.

　　The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic, believing that global economic growth will reach 3.1% this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the 2.9% forecast in October last year. The IMF said that as inflation eases and economic growth stabilizes, the possibility of a "hard landing" for the global economy has been reduced.

　　However, some international organizations and institutions believe that the world economic situation will be more severe this year.

　　In its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report, the World Bank predicts that due to factors such as tightening monetary policy, restricted credit conditions, and weak global trade and investment, global economic growth may be only 2.4% this year, slowing down for the third consecutive year. 2020-2024 may become the slowest five years for global economic growth in 30 years.

　　The World Bank believes that although the global economy has shown resilience in the face of recession risks in 2023, challenges posed by rising geopolitical tensions will cause most economies to grow less quickly in 2024 and 2025 than in the past decade.

　　The United Nations also predicted in the "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024" released in January this year that world economic growth will drop from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, lower than the pre-epidemic level.

　　Although there are still uncertainties about whether the world economy will be good or bad, all parties have basically reached consensus on one thing: the global economic outlook is still full of challenges, and geopolitical tensions pose an increasingly serious threat to the world economy.

　　The IMF believes that the intensification of trade distortions and geo-economic fragmentation is expected to continue to drag down global trade growth. IMF President Georgieva has previously warned that if economic fragmentation is allowed to continue, it will eventually cause a loss of 7% of the global economic aggregate, which is roughly equivalent to the combined annual gross domestic product (GDP) of France and Germany.

　　Dong Yan, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that "decoupling" and "de-risking" will intensify the fragmentation of the world economy and impose restrictions on global trade, cross-border capital flows, technology and personnel flows, and international payments. , leading to a significant decline in the annual growth rate of global GDP, thereby affecting global prosperity.

　　As the global economy turns from warm to cold, China's economic resilience is remarkable. The IMF's optimistic forecast for the global economic outlook is due to the strong resilience shown by China, the United States and several large emerging markets and developing economies.

　　Last year, China's GDP recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, which was higher than the global expected growth rate of about 3% and ranked among the best among major economies. Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said that the basic long-term upward trend of China's economy has not changed. The factors supporting the high-quality development of China's economy are constantly accumulating and increasing. It is predicted that China's economy will continue to rebound and improve in 2024. (over)