<Anchor>

Reporter Kwon Aeri is a friendly economist. Reporter Kwon, are you going to vote after the broadcast today (15th)? (I finished the pre-voting.) Yes. Good job. On the day of the general election today, there was also a prominent economic news, but the IMF made a global economic growth forecast this year.

<Reporter>

Yes. In fact, the central banks and governments of various countries, as well as leading private research institutes and investment companies, have come out every day with prospects for the economy after Corona 19. is.

This is one of the most widely analyzed prospects in the world so far, so let me take a look at it today.

The overall outlook is unusually dark, given that it is a major economic organization that tends to diagnose things relatively conservatively.

This year, the world expected to experience the worst recession since the Great Depression 100 years ago. It's been two times since Korea's strong economic crisis and high growth. The foreign exchange crisis in the late 90s and the financial crisis in 2009.

The financial crisis was a special experience for Korea, so there is no comparison in this report, but the world suffers from the financial crisis in 2009, and declared that this year will be a more difficult year than it was.

And from next year, it is entering a recovery period, but I thought it would be very difficult to return to Corona 19.

This forecast is a scenario that assumes that the coronary pandemic has diminished since the second half of this year, and the quarantine measures have been lifted globally and the economy in most countries, except China, has been concentrated in the second quarter.

<Anchor>

So, it's a prospect given by the premise that this corona19 will be stable all over the world until June?

<Reporter>

Quarantine is in this year, and economic lows are now.

<Anchor>

Anyway, this is a prospect that came out on a positive premise.

<Reporter>

Yes. This is when Corona 19 calms down in the direction that the world expects and expects now without any unexpected variables in the future.

It is predicted that this year the world economy will reverse 3% and Korea will reverse 1.2%. For the first time among the international organizations of the IMF level since this corona 19, we have diagnosed that we will grow negatively this year.

This year, after experiencing such a severe recession, it will rebound next year. The global economy is expected to grow by 5.8% and we will grow by 3.4%.

However, this rebound also ended up in Corona, which is uncertain, so it should be looked at by scenario for now. I pointed out that I might be able to grow further.

The IMF's continuing emphasis in the report is a very demanding specificity of the situation.

Normally, when the recession comes, it is the basic rule that somehow increase economic activity and demand, and now, it is impossible to boost demand by putting a strong social distance to prevent the spread of the virus.

That said, if you neglect to prevent the economic situation right now, the real economic collapse could come next year.

He pointed out that the most important thing for the economy is to stop corona spread and increase health expenditure.

<Anchor>

Still, did you expect our country to suffer less economic damage among the major countries this year?

<Reporter>

Yes. It was evaluated that Korea has been widely preventing the spread of corona19 in the early stages, and economic measures have been reduced due to the rapid release of countermeasures.

We're also putting the distance away, but in fact, in a shutdown situation like the US or Europe, we have to close all the shops and stay at home, and we haven't gone to this.

It would be that Korea's reverse growth will be relatively small this year. It is the least of the OECD countries.

In fact, the economic growth rate can't be compared simply by numbers among countries with large differences, but even if we look at the estimates for Italy and France, which are similar in size to Korea and have poor initial response to Corona19, the difference is as you can see now. .

But we are a country where exports are important. Since the world cannot recover, it is difficult for us to recover.

It's a tough situation right now, but in fact, Korea is one of the fastest-risk countries in the financial crisis of 2009.

At that time, IMF's outlook for Korea was even darker. I expected 4% reverse growth, but it actually increased by 0.8%.

Because it overcame faster than other countries, after the financial crisis, the world trade accounted for over 3% for the first time.

Blocking Corona 19 is the top priority right now, but the recession is expected to be a long-term battle.

Korea seems to be able to recover a little bit ahead, and now it is time to wait and try a little longer.