[Global Times reporter Ni Hao] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised the global economic growth rate in 2024 to 3.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the 2.9% forecast in October last year. Among them, the IMF has raised its economic forecasts for China and the United States. Many media outlets pointed out in reports that the stronger-than-expected economic growth of the two major economies of China and the United States has helped the IMF raise its global economic outlook for 2024.
According to Bloomberg News, on January 30, local time, the IMF released its latest "World Economic Outlook", raising the U.S. economic growth rate in 2024 to 2.1%, 0.6 percentage points higher than the forecast in October last year; China's economic growth in 2024 was The growth rate was revised upward to 4.6%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The IMF pointed out that compared with the October 2023 forecast, the global economic growth forecast in 2024 has been increased by about 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the upward revision in the growth rates of China, the United States, and large emerging markets and developing economies.
The IMF raised the economic growth rate of emerging market and developing economies in Asia to 5.2% in 2024 from 4.8% in October last year, and attributed it to China's stronger-than-expected economic growth. The IMF believes that the upward revision of China's economic growth reflects the continued effect of China's stronger-than-expected economic growth in 2023, as well as the government's increased spending on building capacity to respond to natural disasters.
In its "World Economic Outlook", the IMF believes that global economic growth is likely to see a further upward trend in 2024. Several major factors include the acceleration of China's economic recovery. The IMF believes that China's further reforms related to the real estate industry or the provision of fiscal support beyond expected scale may boost consumer confidence, expand private demand, and generate positive cross-border spillover effects in terms of economic growth.
Previously, Chinese officials made a positive summary of their country's economy. Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference on the performance of the national economy in 2023 on January 17 that China’s economic growth rate of 5.2% in 2023 is higher than the global expected growth rate of about 3%, and is among the world’s major economies. Be among the best. It is expected to contribute more than 30% to world economic growth and is the largest engine of world economic growth. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Kang Yi said in response to reporters' questions about China's economic trends in 2024 that the basic trend of China's long-term economic improvement has not changed, and the factors and conditions supporting the high-quality development of China's economy are constantly accumulating and increasing, so it is predicted that China's economy will continue to rebound in 2024.
Jiang Yuechun, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times reporter that the last time the IMF conducted an outlook on the global economy, the overall expectations were relatively pessimistic. In the fourth quarter of last year, although the U.S. economy still suffered from chronic problems, its overall performance was still better than expected. At the same time, as the second largest economy, China's economy continued to rebound and improved, and its main economic goals were successfully achieved, which has a significant role in stimulating the global economy. Therefore, the performance of the two major economies of China and the United States has become an important driving force for the IMF to increase the global economic growth rate in 2024.
However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Goulincha also warned of the downside risks facing the global economy. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Qulan Shah said that the global economic expansion is fundamentally slow and risks remain, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea that could disrupt commodity prices and supply chains. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported that the IMF believes that the intensification of trade distortions and geo-economic fragmentation is expected to continue to drag down global trade levels. The Global Trade Warning Organization pointed out that the number of newly introduced trade restrictive measures in 2023 will reach approximately 3,000, nearly three times that in 2019. In 2024, when important global elections such as the U.S. presidential election are held one after another, the risk of adopting trade protectionist measures will also increase. According to US media reports, Gulan Shah said that some economic policies of the Biden administration, including those that benefit US chip and green technology manufacturers, may violate WTO rules. Jiang Yuechun said that geopolitical conflicts and the huge debt of the United States are still important uncertainties facing the global economy in 2024. In addition, the United States' implementation of "decoupling and disconnection" will also impact the liberalization of global trade and investment, and the trend of reverse globalization will become one of the obstacles facing the development of the global economy in 2024.