Sino-Singapore Jingwei client April 15 (Xiong Siyi) at 24 o'clock today (15th), a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil will open. Several agencies said that this round of oil price adjustments will continue to be stranded.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

"OPEC +" reached the largest production reduction agreement in history

In the early hours of April 13, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) officially announced that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have reached an agreement to reduce oil production. According to the agreement, "OPEC +" (ie OPEC and non-OPEC) oil-producing countries will reduce their average output by 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1st. 10,000 barrels; the scale of production reduction from January to April 2021 will be reduced to 5.8 million barrels per day; and the extension of the agreement will be discussed in December 2021.

This is the largest production cut in the history of "OPEC +". After the announcement of the production cuts, the international oil price rebounded significantly, followed by shocks. As of the close on April 13, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $ 0.35 to close at $ 22.41 per barrel, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in June rose by 0.26 US dollars to close at 31.74 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.83%.

Recent international crude oil price chart Photo source: China National Petroleum Corporation official website

According to Reuters, Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of the British consulting agency IHS Market, believes that "this agreement will prevent the global oil industry and the oil-dependent countries' economies and other industries from falling into a severe crisis ... can inhibit crude oil inventories. Further increase to reduce pressure on oil prices (downside). "

Goldman Sachs said that oil prices may continue to fall in the coming weeks. Although the major oil-producing countries have reached a "historic" agreement to reduce production, it is still not enough, so it is unlikely to offset the sudden drop in demand caused by the epidemic. According to Rystad Energy ’s previous forecast, global oil demand in April will be 23 million barrels / day lower than the average for the same period, 16 million barrels / day in May and 12 million barrels / day in June.

This round of product oil price adjustments or continue to strand

According to Jinlianchuang ’s estimates, as of the ninth working day of April 14, the average price of the reference crude oil was US $ 25.94 / barrel, with a rate of change of -2.93%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 110 yuan / ton. The average price is lower than the floor price of US $ 40 / barrel, so the price adjustment window for this round will not be opened.

Zhongyu Information said that in 2020, affected by the traditional low season of consumption and public health events, the domestic refined oil wholesale market's price trend went down in the first quarter, and the price trend began to fluctuate at a low level since the end of March. After the largest drop in the "epic" retail oil price was implemented on March 17, the trend of international oil prices continued to fall below US $ 40 per barrel, and the protection policy for the "floor price" of domestic retail oil prices began. Entering April, the crude oil trend lacks strong support on the news surface, and the short-term trend lacks rebound support. The price trend will continue to be under $ 40 per barrel. Domestic retail oil prices will continue to be stranded in this cycle.

From the perspective of market demand, Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis pointed out that in terms of gasoline, as domestic public health incidents have improved and the temperature has continued to rise, the private car travel rate has increased, and the digestion progress of terminal gas stations has accelerated. However, due to the relatively high inventory level in the previous period , The industry mainly digests the early inventory. In terms of diesel, although domestic enterprises have resumed work one after another, the demand for diesel has recovered slightly, but it has not yet reached the normal level of the same period.

It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone six rounds of adjustment, showing a "zero rise, three falls and three stranded" pattern. The gasoline price has been reduced by 1,850 yuan / ton, and the diesel price has been reduced by 1,780 yuan / ton. If the current round of price adjustments is stranded, domestic product oil price adjustments will show a pattern of "zero rise, three falls and four strands" since this year.

In view of the market outlook, Longzhong Information believes that this unprecedented scale of OPEC + production reduction should bring certain favorable effects on oil prices in the medium and long term, and the bottom support of oil prices will also be strengthened as a result. However, in the short term, the market is cautious about the short-term trend due to the fact that the number of production cuts is lower than market expectations and the actual implementation remains to be seen. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)

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