China-Singapore Jingwei, April 1 (Fu Jianqing) At 24:00 on the 1st, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. From a comprehensive institutional perspective, this round of retail price increases is “certain”.
During this round of price adjustment cycle, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. Jin Lianchuang analyzed that the forecasts of institutions on the supply and demand fundamentals of the crude oil market have once again become unified, and they basically maintain an optimistic view, which has played a strong role in boosting oil prices. At the same time, Russia ordered companies to reduce oil production in the second quarter to fulfill their commitments to OPEC+; the decline in the number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and expectations of reduced energy supply also supported oil prices.
Jinlianchuang estimates that as of the ninth working day on March 29, the average price of the reference crude oil variety was US$84.50/barrel, with a change rate of 4.42%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 200 yuan/ton.
Longzhong Information said that there is basically no suspense about the increase in oil prices. Calculated based on a 70-liter fuel tank, private car owners will spend about 10 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel. At present, domestic 92# gasoline is basically over 7.8 yuan/liter, and 95# gasoline is over 8.3 yuan/liter. After this round of price adjustments, gasoline will reach the era of 8 yuan/liter.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that domestic oil prices have experienced six rounds of adjustments during the year, showing "three increases, one decrease and two stranded". Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 475 yuan and 460 yuan per ton respectively compared with the end of last year.
According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of refined oil retail price limit adjustment will be at 24:00 on April 16.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhuochuang Information analyzed that on the one hand, the United States has entered the early stage of summer demand peak, and oil inventories have changed significantly in a single week. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve suspended its interest rate cut in March, and the U.S. dollar temporarily had no direction and continued to fluctuate. The market basically digested the news, and its impact on oil prices was limited. Under the intertwining of bulls and bears, oil prices maintained a volatile trend. According to current crude oil price calculations, at the beginning of the next cycle, the rate of change of crude oil may start at a positive value, and there may be expectations for an upward adjustment in retail price limits.
Longzhong Information also believes that international crude oil prices may mainly consolidate in the high range, OPEC+ will continue to promote production cuts in the second quarter, and the geopolitical situation is still unstable. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price increases will be more likely. (China-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so please be cautious when entering the market.)
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