China-Singapore Jingwei, March 18th (Fu Jianqing) At 24:00 on the 18th, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
From a comprehensive institutional perspective, this round of retail prices may usher in a second stranding in 2024.
During this price adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range.
According to Longzhong Information analysis, concerns about tightening supply caused by geopolitical factors have increased. The International Energy Agency has raised the global crude oil demand growth rate to 1.3 million barrels per day, which has also boosted market confidence to a certain extent. As the current cycle draws to a close, international crude oil prices have experienced two consecutive declines. The sky has risen sharply, but it is difficult to reverse the trend and cannot change the result of this round of stranding of refined oil products.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on March 15, the change rate was 0.17%, and the average price of reference oil types was 80.88 US dollars. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be increased by 10 yuan/ton.
There is only one working day left before the price adjustment window. It is expected that there will be no major fluctuations in the range, and the retail price adjustment window will most likely be difficult to open.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that domestic oil prices have experienced five rounds of adjustments during the year, showing "three increases, one decrease and one stranded."
Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 475 yuan and 460 yuan per ton respectively compared with the end of last year.
According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of refined oil retail price limit adjustment will be at 24:00 on April 1.
Regarding the market outlook, Longzhong Information believes that the international crude oil market is easy to rise but difficult to fall sharply. The production reduction atmosphere and geopolitical favorable conditions still provide support, and there are also opportunities for improvement on the demand side. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price increases will be more likely. .
Jin Lianchuang also said that there are still huge risks in the geopolitical situation, but the supply and demand situation that the crude oil market is re-evaluating may suppress oil prices, and crude oil may still maintain range-bound consolidation in the future.
The rate of change of the next round of pricing cycle will start in a positive direction, and the corresponding range of refined oil products will be around 100 yuan/ton, and the probability of retail price increase is relatively high.
(China-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so please be cautious when entering the market.)
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