Caixin China Manufacturing PMI data released on March 2 shows that in February, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 40.3%, the lowest level since the survey was launched in 2004, and also lower than the low level during the 2008 international financial crisis. Point 40.9%.
A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also released PMI data. In February, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, a decrease of 24.5 percentage points from the previous month. This set of data also hit a record low.
Whether it is the official PMI or the private PMI, it is clear that the operation of China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries has slowed significantly due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Judging from the data, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the current economic operation has exceeded the international financial crisis in 2008.
Look at the official non-manufacturing business activity index. In February, the individual indexes of non-manufacturing industries all declined. Among them, the new order index and supplier delivery time index fell by more than 20 points; the employment index and business activity expectation index fell by between 10 and 20 points; the order in hand index, inventory index, input price index and sales The price index fell within 10 percentage points. The impact on non-manufacturing industries is more pronounced than on manufacturing. This is because, on the one hand, the demand for consumer industries, such as transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism, and resident services, where there is a strong concentration of people, has plummeted; on the other hand, the construction and production operations of the entire society are basically in a state of shutdown.
It can be seen that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the main factor that drove both official and private PMIs to drop significantly. From the performance of the previous two months of PMI data, in the first quarter of this year, the main indicators of China's economic operation are likely to slow down significantly.
However, don't over-amplify the impact of one-month PMI data. The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on economic operations is generally short-term and generally controllable, and will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term positive economy. With the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the continuous development of various policy measures, the Chinese economy will definitely be able to return to the track of normal operation.
Why do you say that?
In the short term, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has affected the operation of different industries to a certain extent, but there has also been a certain degree of differentiation between different industries. The adverse impact of the epidemic on economic operation is not global, nor is it irreversible. . In the manufacturing industry, although the supply chain operation has slowed down, market demand and corporate production have significantly contracted, and employment conditions are relatively tight, but with the support of stable production and supply policies, agricultural and sideline food processing, food that guarantees the basic needs of the people, The PMI of industries such as wine and refined tea remained above 42.0%. The PMI of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry that provided health, health and medical protection was 39.7%, which was higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry and was relatively less affected.
In the non-manufacturing industry, the business activity index of the financial industry was 50.1%, which continued to stay in the expansion range, which played an important role in preventing and controlling the epidemic and economic and social development. Although the business activity index of the telecommunications and Internet software industries has declined, it is significantly better than the overall level of the service industry under the support of new formats and technologies such as cloud office, online education and telemedicine, which are respectively higher than the service industry business activity index of 13.2 And 11.3 percentage points.
Therefore, after the epidemic situation has been basically controlled, market demand has been released intensively, and enterprises have resumed work and production, and economic operations will gradually return to the normal track. As a matter of fact, in recent times, various localities have adopted a number of measures around the procurement of raw materials and dispatch of materials in accordance with the central decision-making arrangements, and are increasing the guarantee of resuming production and restarting production. According to a survey by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, as of February 25, among the national procurement managers surveyed, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 78.9%, of which large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises reached 85.6%, indicating that the recovery rate of enterprises has risen rapidly. Production and business activities are being resumed in an orderly manner.
As the progress of resuming production and production continues to accelerate, production capacity utilization continues to increase, and the increase in investment in new infrastructure in various places, production, consumption, and investment will achieve restorative growth. After March, China's purchasing manager index will improve The main economic indicators will also achieve restorative growth.
In the medium and long term, since the reform and opening up, China's economic aggregate has been stronger, its structure is better, and its foundation is stronger. China's economic aggregate has approached the US $ 100 trillion mark, with per capita GDP exceeding US $ 10,000; China is the country with the most complete manufacturing system in the world, and the pace of industrial service industry's upgrading and development continues to accelerate; the role of innovation is increasing, and new kinetic energy and new industries Rapid growth; the people's livelihood has further improved, and the consumption level of residents has continued to increase. China also has more than 1.4 billion people, 900 million labors, 170 million highly educated and skilled human resources, the world ’s largest middle-income group, and more than 100 million market players. It has large room for economic development, full potential, and strong resilience. . These favorable factors are our confidence and ability to withstand short-term shocks and respond to risk challenges.
Therefore, we must not only look at the adverse effects of the epidemic on economic operation, but also calmly analyze the many favorable factors facing China's economic operation, coordinate the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, unswervingly implement the new development concept, and deepen Supply-side structural reforms, the three major battles, and the comprehensive implementation of the "six stability" work, to give full play to the polarity, initiative and creativity of all parties to minimize the impact of the epidemic. (Economic Daily reporter Lin Huocan)