Why did Ogan declare support for Erdogan in the second round of the presidential election?

ANKARA – After the first round of the Turkish election race, attention turned to Sinan Ogan, who ranked third in the race, with a 5.17% vote, and his voting bloc gained importance to decide the second round between the main rivals Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Turkey is currently witnessing great interest in the votes received by the nationalist Grandparents Alliance, estimated at more than 2,800,<> votes, which prompted Kılıçdaroğlu to suddenly direct a nationalist anti-refugee rhetoric in an attempt to court this critical mass.

But on Monday evening, Ogan announced his support for Erdogan in the second round of the presidential election, which will be held on 28 of this month.

At a press conference on Monday afternoon, Ogan said the Turkish opposition "could not convince us and could not get a majority in parliament," stressing that the new president must be in agreement with parliament.

Speaking to Turkey's state-run TRT channel on Monday evening, Erdogan spoke of supporting Ogan, said he thanked him, and stressed that "we will not enter into negotiations with Mr. Sinan Ogan."

Ogan's influence on his voters

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, political expert Jahed Tuz said that Sinan Ogan's conservative nationalist orientation made him choose to support Erdogan.

Toz added that the security factor is very important to the conservative nationalist orientation, so Oğan would be reviewing criticism if he supported Kılıçdaroğlu, who has the support of the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which is ideologically linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is classified as a terrorist group by Ankara, which could negatively affect his political future.

Thinking about his political future, Toz noted that the odds are likely Erdogan will win, and therefore it is natural for Ogan to support the winning party.

Academician Kerem Yavashcha agreed that Ogan's conservative nationalist orientation made him more likely to choose to support Erdogan.

The academic – one of the founding members of the opposition party "Democracy and Progress" – for Al Jazeera Net that there is a state of disharmony in the alliance of ancestors, which nominated Ogan, where the leader of the alliance Ümit Özdağ, head of the party "nail" incompatible with the decision of Ogan, which raises the question of the possibility of directing Ogan voting bloc.

Yavçça said that it will be difficult to direct the voting bloc of Ogan entirely in favor of Erdogan, given that the votes obtained by Ogan exceed his original voting base, which is itself questionable or not, noting that he obtained the votes of voters who did not vote for the ancestral alliance in the parliamentary elections.

Regarding this voting bloc, the academic stated that some of these votes reject the choice of Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu, and therefore Ogan received these votes stemmed from his being the third candidate.

He added that some of Ogan's votes are from the opposition Good Party bloc, so it makes no sense for all this bloc to go to Erdogan.

Erdogan closer to winning

In turn, researcher Mert Hüseyin Akgun pointed out that Ogan's position is understood as the choice of the party with the highest chances of winning, in addition to the national security factor that kept him away from Kılıçdaroğlu, noting that Ogan originally hails from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the ruling coalition.

The researcher added in his speech to Al Jazeera Net that Ogan does not enjoy a dominant voting base, but among his supporters voices of the owners of reactions of the nature of "demonstrator", including those who tend socially to Erdogan's voting base.

Akgun added that he considers Erdogan the winner from the first round even though he faces the toughest circumstances of his career, whether from the economy or the devastating February earthquake.

Akgun believes that at least half of the bloc that voted for Erdogan could go to Erdogan and would have another choice: abstain entirely.

As for political expert Jahed Tose, Erdogan is likely to win because the second round depends on winning the majority of votes, and Erdogan already excelled in the first round by more than 2 million and 300 thousand votes.

The political expert believed that the 5% obtained by Ogan could be divided as follows: 2% may vote for Erdogan, 1.5% may abstain and 1.5% as a maximum vote for Kılıçdaroğlu, which may increase the difference that already exists in the first round.

Loss of hope

In this context, academic Yavashtcha said that after the first round, a state of hopelessness prevailed among opposition supporters, adding, "Now it is added to the support of Ogan, which reinforces this feeling of losing the elections, and that Erdogan will win."

The spokesman added that the matter may go beyond this limit, and that the psychological state of opposition supporters may push some of them not to participate in the second round, as "they may see that their votes have become meaningless," which may reduce the participation rate and increase the winning rate for Erdogan.

The biggest benefit of supporting Erdogan is not the voting bloc in the first place, which of course will not go all to Erdogan, but the most important benefit is the public perception and psychological impact that Erdogan will win in the second round.

Political expert Jahid Tuz ruled out Kılıçdaroğlu's ability to remedy the matter due to time constraints, nor would he be able to take a position against his cooperation with the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), and that his nationalist rhetoric after the first round was not convincing and seemed artificial to voters.

Akgun said Kılıçdaroğlu's attempt to sharpen nationalist discourse could backfire and lose votes from the Kurdish bloc, adding that such a sharp shift in discourse could undermine voters' confidence.

Yavçça agreed that Kılıçdaroğlu's nationalist adoption could lead to a boycott by some Kurdish voters, boosting the difference in Erdogan's winning rate.

The speakers expected the second round to be almost certain in favor of Erdogan, and Tuz stressed that all data indicates Erdogan's success, expecting him to win by a margin of more than 2 million votes, and this difference may reach 3 million, by between 51 and 52%.