A scent of revenge floats over the Turkish municipal election on Sunday March 31 in Istanbul. Outgoing mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, of the social-democratic CHP party, is neck and neck, according to pollsters, with the candidate of the presidential party. Behind this election hangs the shadow of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “He never digested the loss of Istanbul in 2019,” summarizes Didier Billion, Turkey specialist and deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
Originally from this city, the leader grew up in a working-class district of Istanbul and likes to mention it in his speeches. “It was in Istanbul that he truly experienced political success, being elected mayor in 1994. And it was this election that allowed him to emerge,” underlines the researcher. A reconquest of this megalopolis lost in 2019 by his party, the AKP, for the benefit of Ekrem Imamoglu, would mark a symbolic and personal victory for the head of state.
He is so keen on it that on the very evening of his victory in the second round of the presidential election in May 2023, he harangued his troops so that they set out to reconquer the town hall of Istanbul.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his “straw man”
In recent weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made numerous declarations on the ballot, sent his ministers to the field and held a major meeting in Istanbul, Sunday March 24, to support his candidate, the very technocrat former Minister of the Environment Murat Kurum . A faithful man, acting as a "straw man", from whom he happily steals the spotlight on stage.
“We can wonder about the choice of the AKP candidate,” said Didier Billion. “Murat Kurum is unknown to the general public and he lacks charisma, unlike Ekrem Imamoglu.”
The current mayor of Istanbul is leading a successful campaign and maintaining his popularity despite the internal crisis shaking his CHP party, says Samim Akgönül, university professor and director of the Turkish studies department at the University of Strasbourg. “He knew how to put himself above the partisan fray.”
A campaign meeting of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul on March 22, 2024. © AFP, Yasin Akgul
A new victory for the councilor would naturally impose him as leader of the opposition for the presidential election of 2028. "He would then be able to embody and crystallize all the opposition to the illiberal regime of Tayyip Erdogan", believes Bayram Balci, researcher at CERI and former director of the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, in a column in Le Figaro
.
It would not be impossible to see him challenge Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls, judges this expert.
However, the AKP "has chances or risks of winning – it depends on which point of view we take", judges Samim Akgönül. The Islamist party takes advantage of the resources made available by the State, particularly the media. The Turkish president benefits from unlimited air time and the major television channels leave only crumbs for the opposition.
Another advantage for his party in this election is that he benefits from the dispersion of opposition votes. United five years ago, this time it is moving forward in dispersed order, undermined by its defeat in the 2023 presidential election. The pro-Kurdish party DEM (ex-HDP), the third force in parliament, will present a candidate in Istanbul, where a large Kurdish community lives, and in all major cities in Turkey.
“It’s not a foregone conclusion for the AKP,” tempers Didier Billion. "There is no unity on this side either. There is in particular a small Islamist party – the New Prosperity Party [Yeniden Refah] – which is running, which is quite virulent, and which is "rather a good campaign. He is credited with 2 to 4% of the votes." So many votes that the AKP could lack to swing Istanbul.
Financial windfall and electoral pool
But beyond the symbol, if eyes are focused so much on Istanbul it is because this city and its sixteen million inhabitants, which concentrates most of the country's wealth, also represents an economic windfall for the party which will prevail.
“This gives those who hold the town hall of Greater Istanbul significant financial power, which is not always used for those administered, but which can also be used to fund the coffers of parties, whatever they may be,” adds Didier Billion, who recalls that corruption and cronyism do not spare Istanbul.
"The metropolis has enormous municipal resources which provide services to its millions of citizens", including eleven million voters likely to adjust their vote in national elections according to the quality of these services, Berk Esen underlines to AFP , political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul.
Even if it is in Istanbul that the AKP troops concentrated their efforts during this campaign, it will also be necessary to monitor the results in the two other main cities of the country: Ankara and Izmir, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party wants to mark points. “In an authoritarian country like Turkey, it is disorderly that the three main cities of the country are held by opposition parties,” analyzes Didier Billion.
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On the contrary, a victory for the AKP in these urban centers would “cement Erdogan’s hold for a long time” and “deeply anchor Turkey in a conservative and nationalist line”, estimates Bayram Balci in Le Figaro.
In Ankara, the CHP is in the lead with outgoing mayor Mansur Yavas even if a very close race could be played out according to observers of Turkish political life. Finally, Izmir, the third city in the country, is traditionally Kemalist and administered by a CHP town hall, but the social democratic party could lose ground there.
With AFP
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