Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu greets the crowd gathered in front of the City Hall building (Anatolia)
Istanbul
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No one expected the opposition to obtain this amount of votes in the local elections that took place in Turkey, the day before yesterday, Sunday, and the ruling party coalition did not expect to lose this number of votes, so that the results of the local elections would be as influential as the results of the recent general elections in the country. .
Local elections were held in Turkey on March 31 in 81 provinces and 972 municipalities, in which 1,053 candidates from 34 parties participated, and 48 million people cast their votes. Here came the first surprise, as the participation rate reached 78%, while the participation rate in the previous elections was 84.6%, and this low percentage was one of the important factors that affected the election results.
It turned out that the largest number of voters who did not go to the ballot boxes were Justice and Development Party voters, and this was one of the reasons that led to the loss of many governorates, as the Justice and Development Party lost 15 of the 39 governorates that it controlled in 2019, while the number of governorates increased. Municipalities of the Republican People's Party (the main opposition) from 21 to 35. These provinces include the largest cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Adana.
The AKP's domestic vote share decreased from 44% to 35%, while the CHP's vote share increased from 30% to 37%, and for the first time in 47 years the CHP became the first in Turkey.
A two-party political system is now forming in Turkey, with the percentage of votes for the third party closest to these two parties reaching about 6%. The “New Welfare” Party, founded by Mehmet Ali Fatih Erbakan, the son of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, was the biggest surprise in the elections. Their vote share increased to close to 100% and they won two municipalities.
Voter excitement
None of the opinion polling companies in Turkey were able to predict the election results. No one expected that the votes of the Justice and Development Party would decrease in this way, and that the votes of the Republican People’s Party would rise in this way on the other hand, while all the heads of opinion polling companies, political experts and analysts are trying to investigate. The reasons for this big change.
While the CHP previously appeared mainly in western coastal cities, it has now won some conservative provinces and eastern regions such as Adiyaman, and voters have given the leadership of 35 provinces and 338 municipalities in different parts of Turkey to the CHP.
The reason for this so far unprecedented change, according to analysts, is more a result of voters' frustration with the ruling parties than a result of the success of the Republican People's Party.
Opposition supporters celebrate the results of the local elections (Reuters)
Causes of emotion
In the 2023 presidential elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the Justice and Development Party, won in the second round and obtained 52% of the votes. However, the vote share fell by 8 points on the same day in the parliamentary elections to 36%, and economic problems and living difficulties were among the most prominent reasons for the AKP's vote loss at that time.
After 10 months, economic problems again appear at the top of the reasons for the loss of votes for the AKP in the new elections. In addition to dissatisfaction with the increase in pensions for retirees, accusations of corruption in municipalities, bureaucratic mismanagement, and problems in the structures of the Justice and Development Party.
Analysts believe that voters imposed the bill on the ruling Justice and Development Party because of all the problems that have accumulated over the years.
Although the CHP leans toward social democracy and leftism, it announced conservative nationalist candidates in Istanbul and Ankara, with Ekrem Imamoglu winning 51% in Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş winning 60% in Ankara.
Given these large percentages of votes, both İmamoğlu and Yavaş are beginning to be viewed as potential rivals to any AKP candidate in the 2028 presidential elections.
Although, according to the constitution, Erdogan will not be able to run for elections, the decline in the vote share of the AKP, in addition to the possible increase in the vote share of the Republican People's Party, makes talk of major political changes not unlikely now.
But analysts believe that the behavior of voters in Turkey has become unpredictable now, and things may change in Turkey within 4 years and the elections may be different.
turning point
After every election, Erdogan goes out to the balcony of his party headquarters to give a speech to his supporters. Given that he won all the elections in which he participated in 22 years, they were all words of victory, but despite this loss, Erdogan, who lost the elections for the first time, gave a speech from the balcony.
Erdogan stressed in his speech that "March 31 is not the end for us, but in fact it is a turning point. Of course, we will investigate the reasons for this decline at the local level. We will determine well the reasons for every place where we lost or declined, and we will address the matter as necessary."
Source: Al Jazeera