“This (Sunday) evening democracy will sweep (...) into the squares, into the streets, universities, cafes and restaurants of Istanbul.” These are the words that Ekrem Imamoglu made on Sunday March 31, in front of tens of thousands of his supporters after his re-election as mayor of Istanbul.

By retaining the economic capital and largest city in Turkey – won in 2019 against Binali Yildirim, a loyalist of Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the councilor is more than ever the “boss” of the Turkish opposition in the aftermath of the historic setback inflicted on the presidential camp during these municipal elections.

On Sunday, Ekrem Imamoglu did not even wait for the official results to be announced to announce his victory. “We are in first position with a lead of more than a million votes (...) We won the election,” he declared to the press, specifying that these results concerned 96% of the ballot boxes .

This clear advance alone represents the progress made by the political opponent in a few years. During the 2019 election, he won with only 14,000 votes in advance, a straw when we know that Istanbul has more than 11 million registered voters.

Also read: Imamoglu, the outsider who stole the Istanbul town hall from an Erdogan loyalist

But this short victory was a feat: almost unknown, the elected representative of the Republican People's Party (CHP, social-democrat) put an end to 25 years of domination by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP, the ruling party, in the largest city in the country. Ekrem Imamoglu then benefited from an alliance of opposition parties, unlike on Sunday – without this apparently hindering his success.

In the sights of Turkish power and justice

The journey of the mayor of Istanbul is also strewn with pitfalls with those in power. By canceling the first municipal election in March 2019, Recep Tayyip Erdogan paradoxically gave a comfortable victory to Ekrem Imamoglu during a second vote three months later – the opponent finished with 800,000 votes ahead of the candidate of AKP Binali Yildirim.

Following this second election, Ekrem Imamoglu called the members of the High Electoral Committee who had invalidated the first vote "idiots", which led to him being prosecuted. At the end of 2022, he was sentenced to two years, seven months and fifteen days in prison for “insult”.

Although he appealed this sentence and denounced a “political affair”, this conviction had ruled out the man who was expected to be the main rival of the Turkish president in the 2023 presidential election. Today, it continues to loom as a threat on the political future of Ekrem Imamoglu. 

Another affair could also thwart the presidential ambition of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's opponent. Since June 2023, Ekrem Imamoglu has been prosecuted by Turkish justice for suspicion of rigging a call for tenders issued at the end of 2015 when he was mayor of Beylikdüzü, a district of Istanbul. The elected official rejects these accusations, but faces up to seven years in prison and a penalty of ineligibility if convicted.

“He can please all segments of the opposition electorate”

Despite these legal cases, the mayor of Istanbul is nonetheless regularly ranked among the Turks' favorite political figures. And taking advantage of his charisma and his media aura, Ekrem Imamoglu never ceases to pose as a direct rival to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

During the last electoral campaign again, he increased his hoarse voice against the head of state – who was personally involved in the battle to regain the city of Istanbul, of which he was mayor between 1994 and 1998. Ekrem Imamoglu also targeted the Turkish president more than Murat Kurum – who was the candidate designated by the AKP, a loyalist acting as a “straw man” for this election.

Read also Municipalities in Turkey: the shadow of Recep Tayyip Erdogan hangs over the battle of Istanbul

And although he is Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu shares several points in common with the Turkish president. Both come from a traditional and nationalist background, they are both passionate about football – Ekrem Imamoglu even sat on the board of directors of the professional club Trabzonspor in 2002-2003 – and they followed Koranic courses, as noted by Le Monde in April 2023.

But on this last point, the opponent wants to differentiate himself from the Turkish president, declaring to the daily that he “received both a good education and a religious education. (...) However, I am a person who lives her faith in herself, and I do not use it as a political tool”.

Despite some internal criticism – including that of the pro-Kurdish party DEM (formerly HDP), which supported him in 2019, and which criticized him for his silence when dozens of his elected officials were removed from office and imprisoned – Ekrem Imamoglu appears to be the essential figure of the Turkish opposition able to compete with Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“He can appeal to all segments of the opposition electorate, whether Turkish, Kurdish, Sunni, Alevis, young or old voters,” Berk Esen, a political scientist at the AFP, told AFP. Sabanci University of Istanbul, which notes that the mayor of Istanbul "enjoys a fairly high level of support in different regions of the country". 

Ekrem Imamoglu presents a suitable profile for a candidacy for the 2028 presidential election. But the main interested party refuses to plan for the moment, as he recently declared to the Turkish opposition media Medyascope: “There are still four years until 'in 2028. It would be inappropriate for me to talk about this today.

With AFP

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