Despair and frustration at the escalation of resistance. The occupation is thinking of a massive aggression on the West Bank, but its eye is on Gaza

JERUSALEM – Between political objectives to escape the crises of the cracks of the ruling coalition, military targets in the wake of the growing armed resistance and the security services' assessments of the escalation of operations, the security services held discussions about the possibility of the Israeli occupation army launching a large-scale military operation in the occupied West Bank.

These discussions did not resolve the issue of giving the Israeli occupation forces the green light to start the military operation, but there is a consensus between the security and military institutions on the need to consider changing the military policy in the West Bank, which was adopted by the Shin Bet security service.

Despite Israel's consensus to change military security policy in the West Bank, Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy have not made up their minds about the scenario of launching a large-scale military operation there, similar to the previous "Defensive Shield" operation in the West Bank, which took place between March 29 and May 10, 2022.

From the beginning of 2023 until May, 19 Israelis were killed and about 100 wounded in Palestinian resistance operations, most of which were carried out in the West Bank, while Shin Bet security chief Ronen Barr revealed that more than 200 attacks were thwarted in the same period.

Loss of control

In light of the growing armed resistance and talk about the possibility of the Israeli occupation army launching a comprehensive military operation in the West Bank, the Israeli National Security Research Center of Tel Aviv University issued a position assessment under the title "The Palestinian Arena... Orientation towards a single state and Jewish supremacy."

The assessment warned of the possibility of chaos in the West Bank, loss of control by the Palestinian Authority, and the elimination of Palestinian aspirations to freedom and independence by annexing the West Bank and imposing Israeli sovereignty over it.

According to the assessment, the far-right, religious, and ultra-Orthodox parties that make up the government coalition – especially Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Greatness and Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" alliance – are initiating, taking measures and imposing facts in the West Bank and Jerusalem that prevent the possibility of any political settlement with the Palestinians.

According to the Government Research Center, the practices and approach of the coalition parties in Benjamin Netanyahu's government to proceed with the procedures of annexing Area C and imposing sovereignty over them, tolerating settler attacks and violence, and strengthening Israeli governance in East Jerusalem, provokes Palestinians and robs them of even their national aspirations and forces them to live in cantons under Israeli rule.

Impossibility of decisiveness

Orr Heller, a military and security affairs correspondent for Israel's Channel 13, said, "The Israeli military establishment is unable to provide an answer to these questions, especially in light of the unprecedented increase in armed operations and warnings."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the military affairs correspondent attributed the lack of decisive answers from the security services on the role of military campaigns in eliminating resistance in the West Bank to the receipt of dozens of warnings daily about plans to carry out armed operations.

He pointed out that the features of the operations that were carried out put the security services in a dilemma on how to confront the resistance that is expanding in the West Bank, especially since the talk is about the activism and sleep of local armed groups in every Palestinian town, which creates a situation for an armed intifada that goes beyond the usual individual operations.

Local groups operate in a different way from traditional factions, he said, with friends continuing to recruit each other, get guns, and then go out, carry out shootings and withdraw as if nothing had happened.

In an indication of the inability of the occupation to confront the armed groups and the impossibility of decisiveness and preventing armed operations, there is talk about the scenario of the army and security services carrying out a large-scale operation in the West Bank.

With the resumption of security discussions on the scenario of launching a large-scale military operation in the West Bank, Heller explained that the commander of the Central Zone in the occupation army, Major General Yehuda Fox, ordered the establishment of a new military division in the West Bank that will be active alongside the West Bank Division led by Brigadier General Avi Balut.

Despair and frustration

According to military analyst Yoav Limor, the reality in the West Bank "is more violent and dangerous than at any time in the 20 years since the Operation Defensive Wall, as the amount of weapons in the West Bank is unimaginable, as a result of mass smuggling, as well as armed operations, in exchange for undermining the Palestinian Authority and declining its power."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Limor explained that the reality of growing operations in the West Bank and strengthening the role of armed factions and their activity translates into a frightening amount of operations and warnings estimated at dozens, and therefore can sometimes understand the state of despair and frustration on the Israeli side after the failure to prevent armed operations.

If the army and security services are in a state of preparation for a large-scale military operation in the West Bank, the military analyst believes that the Israeli security services are active in the West Bank and present around the clock there, carrying out operations, as happened in the assassinations in Nablus, which "reflect a mixture of human and technological intelligence with operational audacity," as he described it.

Huge fears

Until last year, Limor says Israel was able to maintain an acceptable level of militant operations, which prevented it from having to launch a large-scale operation in the West Bank.

However, the wave of armed operations, which began in early 2022 and escalated in recent months, has led to the return of the idea of launching a large-scale and comprehensive military operation in the West Bank to the discussion table among the security services, as the Israeli army is considering launching a military operation in the West Bank.

The military analyst explained that this idea was already tested and examined last year, but was rejected, and today "the conditions have become less favorable from Israel's point of view, due to fears and concerns about the unification of the squares, which means that a large-scale and bloody operation in the West Bank will inevitably lead to an escalation in Gaza as well, and possibly on the northern border."