Pelosi's Taiwan Visit: Was It Worth It?

Was Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan actually in the country's interest?

You will hardly get an honest answer to this question from the official side in the capital Taipei.

The country knows what it owes to Pelosi and other congressmen.

The close ties to the American Congress are Taiwan's lifeline, without which the island state would have been swallowed up by China long ago.

A visit request from the office of the "speaker" of the House of Representatives can hardly be answered in Taipei with the comment that another time might be more favorable.

In any case, China seems to want to do everything possible to increase the cost of this visit for Taiwan - if only to prevent well-known politicians from other countries from getting the idea to travel to Taipei to help the beleaguered country to demonstrate their solidarity as well.

The announced military maneuvers around Taiwan are more than a passing thunderstorm.

The risk of a military confrontation developing from this is greater than it has been for a long time.

It is also to be feared that China will use the situation to permanently increase the pressure on Taiwan.

That's quite a high cost for a symbolic visit.

Taiwanese options are limited

Some will say that Taiwan shouldn't let China dictate which guests it receives.

Beijing's methods of intimidation must be opposed demonstratively.

But the matter is more complicated.

It is no coincidence that there has been no American "speaker" of the House of Representatives in Taipei for 25 years.

Cowardice is not the reason why high-ranking politicians from other countries do not travel to Taiwan.

It is an attempt to preserve an increasingly fragile structure that has secured peace in the Taiwan Strait for at least forty years: the so-called status quo.

Behind this lies the tacit agreement to clarify the question of what Taiwan actually is at a later date.

In fact, Taiwan is a sovereign state.

Nobody wants to say it because that would open Pandora's box.

The Taiwanese rightly insist that they have to decide their own future.

A clear majority of citizens are in favor of maintaining the status quo.

In other words, they are forgoing formal independence and international recognition for the time being, rather than jeopardizing the freedom and democracy they have fought so hard for.

Taiwanese are pragmatic enough to know their options are limited.

Therefore, unlike in Ukraine, calls for visits by heads of state and government are not heard in the country.

Pelosi is right that drawing international attention to Taiwan is now more important than ever.

But there are more constructive ways to do that than giving China the middle finger.

Not only is Pelosi the highest-ranking American visitor for 25 years, she is also a red rag for China as an individual.

It may not please you that Beijing is laying claim to an island ruled by the Qing Dynasty until 1895 before being colonized by Japan.

However, the fact that most countries in the world are pursuing a one-China policy shows that the question of Taiwan's status is not trivial.

There is not even a consensus on this in the country itself.

Anyone who wants to avoid a military escalation should at least be aware that there is no topic in China that is more nationalistically charged than this one.

And that the weeks before the big party congress at which Xi Jinping wants to proclaim himself leader of the people are extremely bad choices for a gesture of solidarity.

China threatens the status quo with its military aggression.

But one cannot blame the Beijing leadership for having the impression that America, too, has significantly changed its Taiwan policy.

The distrust between the two states is so great and the number of communication channels has shrunk so much that all sides should be interested in stabilizing the situation.

Originally, as Joe Biden aptly put it, Pelosi's visit was "not a good idea right now."

After their plans became public, however, Washington ran out of good options.

A refusal would have encouraged China to assert its interests more often with military threats in the future.

After their departure, the most important thing now is for the West to find a common response to the Chinese military maneuvers.

The main question should be: What would be in Taiwan's interest?