Modern diplomat: Will Russia and Iran become my partner in arms?

Bonsara Amarasinghe, in an article published by the American diplomatic website, said that the deterioration of relations between Iran and the United States in the past few months clearly indicates that the killing of the commander of the Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani, was not entirely surprising, but rather culminating in the seriousness of the tense events between the two countries.

He adds that it appears that the killing of America, this prominent military commander in Baghdad, last week was a very dangerous step at the beginning of this new decade, as some analysts considered this incident similar to the assassination of Austria's Crown Prince Duke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which paved the outbreak of World War I in 1914. Although this hypothesis may be exaggerated, it is certain that the repercussions of Soleimani's murder will contribute to the escalation of political unrest, which could lead to a serious crisis in the region.

The author notes that the statement announced by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing revenge for Soleimani indicates the nation's wounded pride, but it is still not certain whether Iran will respond, ignoring the power of the American war machine that could lead to catastrophic repercussions on the entire country.

The writer notes that Iran is a regional power that has a strong military mechanism trained to counter any potential military attack, as well as its technological development, which makes it a unique example that is not comparable to any other country the United States has fought a war against since the end of World War II, pointing out that it is likely Tehran chooses an uneven escalation by using proxies or attacking American targets to deter Washington.

Russian support
The writer added that another hypothesis is that Russia provides support to Iran without conditions, in any military campaign it is waging against the United States, noting that this hypothesis can be strengthened by studying the political rapprochement between Tehran and Moscow in the past.

He says that while US President Donald Trump threatened Iran last May, Moscow made an official statement announcing its support for Tehran, and Russia is aware of the importance of maintaining the Iranian regime and not allowing external forces to block it, because Iranian stability is the primary factor for deterrence. The influence of the United States in the Middle East.

The site adds that both Moscow and Tehran strengthened their relations with a view to protecting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and that Russia's recent participation in world politics indicates its great ambition to become an active player on the international scene.

The writer says that the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Munich in 2007 touched on this agenda, as he demonstrated his great rejection of the "unipolar" world and American hegemony in the international political arena.

The writer believes that Russia considers Iran its right arm in the Middle East that it does not want to lose, given its bold behavior and its military mechanism as a strong country, adding that the Iranian, Russian and Chinese navies conducted joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman days before the killing of Soleimani. He adds that Moscow considered General Suleiman a smart strategic expert who played a major role in the Russian military presence when the Syrian army witnessed a retreat in 2015.

Blow to Moscow
The writer says that the Russian air strikes changed the course of events, and indicates that Soleimani visited Moscow in 2017 to discuss Russia's bilateral cooperation with Sunni governments in the Persian Gulf, adding that this background is the best evidence that the killing of the Iranian general was a painful blow to Moscow, as a loss An intelligent strategic thinker could have been used more as an agent of Russian intervention in the Middle East.

He believes that there is a belief that Moscow will lead its armies directly to support Iran or to encourage such a military confrontation between the United States and Iran. He also believes that the relationship that Moscow has built in the Middle East with Iran's opponents - such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and even Israel - could turn into enmity, which turns Putin's grand strategy of maintaining relations with America's allies in the Middle East into a disaster.

Among the other prominent factors that emerged after the assassination of Soleimani was the rapid increase in the price of oil, which brought surprising financial benefit to Russia, and recognizes that the next step for Russia will not be to provide military assistance to Tehran as partners in the battle, but who Moscow is likely to play a major role through its diplomatic means, to block any crisis that could harm its ally Tehran.